4 ms·

If they extend them to gas, we Euros are fucked hard.

by toyg 5y ago

mrits 5y ago
They can't redirect a gas pipeline. If they sell it to Asia instead they will have a much higher overhead in transportation. Then they'd have to deal with the leverage that Asia has over little competition.
- vbezhenar 5y ago
  They can conservate it for the better times.
  - whatever1 5y ago
    They really need cash flow, they are on the brink of bankruptcy
  - mrits 5y ago
    When this renewable energy fad fades out?
    - vbezhenar 5y ago
      Gas is used a lot in chemistry, I'm not sure whether it's easy to replace it.
sdoering 5y ago
If they extend it to fertilizers a lot of people will feel the effect. > Russia produces 50 million tons of fertilizers every year, 13 percent of the world's total. The country is a major exporter of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-containing fertilizers, all of which are major crop and soil nutrients. Source: https://southeastagnet.com/2022/03/07/russian-ministry-recommends-halting-fertilizer-exports https://southeastagnet.com/2022/03/07/russian-ministry-recom...
willcipriano 5y ago
If I was him I'd shut it down and use environmental retoric to justify it. "We should leave it in the ground, what about future generations?" sort of stuff. The mental gymnastics would be Olympic level.
- jjoonathan 5y ago
  There's a "mental gymnastics doping scandal" joke somewhere in there.
nomel 5y ago
As has been the case for decades. Here's a paper from 2007: A need to cut EU-dependence on Russian gas > The recent gas price 'confrontations' that Russia engineered with the Ukraine and Belarus have exacerbated European concerns in respect of energy supply security. https://archive.nordregio.se/en/Metameny/About-Nordregio/Journal-of-Nordregio/2007/Journal-of-Nordregio-no-1-2007/A-need-to-cut-EU-dependence-on-Russi/index.html https://archive.nordregio.se/en/Metameny/About-Nordregio/Jou...
sAbakumoff 5y ago
how would they pay for the war if they don't sell gas to us in Europe? Besides, the EU presented the plan to get rid of the RU gas dependency: https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/8/22967244/european-union-russia-clean-energy-transition-gas https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/8/22967244/european-union-ru...
- dalbasal 5y ago
  At the moment, they aren't paying for much. Most of what they're using (weapons, vehicles, fuel, ammo) is coming out of storage, reserves, etc. Soldier pay is in rubles. That's not to say russian doesn't need money, but this isn't that kind of war... at this point.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > how would they pay for the war if they don't sell gas to us in Europe? Degraded capacity and suffering of the Russian people, mostly. The consumables they can build they will, everything else will get used up in the hope that the war is won before the capacity to fight it is fully degraded, and that once there is a fair accompli in Ukraine, a sufficient subset of the world will see no point in further sanctions and they’ll be able to use the expanded economic power from their victory to build back. (I don't think it's a good plan, but it's all they have left.)
raverbashing 5y ago
Oh they won't Not to mention Russian gas is 30% of EU gas (on average), so it would be a crunch but not a cut-off Unless they would like the Ruble going even lower.
- ugjka 5y ago
  If it is all out war, do they care?
  - jquery 5y ago
    Absolutely. Russian elites are 100% gobsmacked right now. This is surreal to them. Give some time for the sanctions to percolate.
pmontra 5y ago
News are that we'll have replace 2/3 of Russian gas from somebody else by the end of the year [1]. It's going to be a rougher transition if we have to replace all of it but it's worth it. Same with wheat and oil. Hard times for a while but better than having to bow to Mr Putin. And this is only money, not bombs like in Ukraine. By the way, the countries we'll be buying from are not much nicer than Putin's Russia (some of them maybe even less so) but at least they are smaller and hopefully more manageable. The next one to cut ties with should be China but that's a giant rope to undo. [1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/europe-plans-to-slash-russian-gas-imports-by-66-this-year/ar-AAUMlOM https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/europe-plans-to-slash-r...
MayeulC 5y ago
Maybe not as much as it's made out to be? Only a few european countries rely heavily on russian gas (on the top of my head, germany and italy). It wouldn't be fun, but we can heavily invest in converting heating systems, and turn off some electricity sinks (industrial equipment, etc). Make the grid smarter to turn off equipment when demand is high. Meanwhile, accelerate the deployment of alternative energy sources, storage, and diversify hydrocarbon procurement sources. Basically what should have been done progressively, not that it wasn't called out. Both reducing reliance on Russia and phasing out carbon-intensive energy sources. It's mind-blowing that we made no progress on these, and now it looks like germany is doubling down on it.

If they extend them to gas, we Euros are fucked hard.

by toyg 5y ago

If they extend them to gas, we Euros are fucked hard.

They can't redirect a gas pipeline. If they sell it to Asia instead they will have a much higher overhead in transportation. Then they'd have to deal with the leverage that Asia has over little competition.

vbezhenar 5y ago
They can conservate it for the better times.
- whatever1 5y ago
  They really need cash flow, they are on the brink of bankruptcy
- mrits 5y ago
  When this renewable energy fad fades out?
  - vbezhenar 5y ago
    Gas is used a lot in chemistry, I'm not sure whether it's easy to replace it.

sdoering 5y ago

If they extend it to fertilizers a lot of people will feel the effect. > Russia produces 50 million tons of fertilizers every year, 13 percent of the world's total. The country is a major exporter of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-containing fertilizers, all of which are major crop and soil nutrients. Source: https://southeastagnet.com/2022/03/07/russian-ministry-recommends-halting-fertilizer-exports https://southeastagnet.com/2022/03/07/russian-ministry-recom...

willcipriano 5y ago

If I was him I'd shut it down and use environmental retoric to justify it. "We should leave it in the ground, what about future generations?" sort of stuff. The mental gymnastics would be Olympic level.

jjoonathan 5y ago
There's a "mental gymnastics doping scandal" joke somewhere in there.

nomel 5y ago

As has been the case for decades. Here's a paper from 2007: A need to cut EU-dependence on Russian gas > The recent gas price 'confrontations' that Russia engineered with the Ukraine and Belarus have exacerbated European concerns in respect of energy supply security. https://archive.nordregio.se/en/Metameny/About-Nordregio/Journal-of-Nordregio/2007/Journal-of-Nordregio-no-1-2007/A-need-to-cut-EU-dependence-on-Russi/index.html https://archive.nordregio.se/en/Metameny/About-Nordregio/Jou...

sAbakumoff 5y ago

how would they pay for the war if they don't sell gas to us in Europe? Besides, the EU presented the plan to get rid of the RU gas dependency: https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/8/22967244/european-union-russia-clean-energy-transition-gas https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/8/22967244/european-union-ru...

dalbasal 5y ago
At the moment, they aren't paying for much. Most of what they're using (weapons, vehicles, fuel, ammo) is coming out of storage, reserves, etc. Soldier pay is in rubles. That's not to say russian doesn't need money, but this isn't that kind of war... at this point.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> how would they pay for the war if they don't sell gas to us in Europe? Degraded capacity and suffering of the Russian people, mostly. The consumables they can build they will, everything else will get used up in the hope that the war is won before the capacity to fight it is fully degraded, and that once there is a fair accompli in Ukraine, a sufficient subset of the world will see no point in further sanctions and they’ll be able to use the expanded economic power from their victory to build back. (I don't think it's a good plan, but it's all they have left.)

raverbashing 5y ago

Oh they won't Not to mention Russian gas is 30% of EU gas (on average), so it would be a crunch but not a cut-off Unless they would like the Ruble going even lower.

ugjka 5y ago
If it is all out war, do they care?
- jquery 5y ago
  Absolutely. Russian elites are 100% gobsmacked right now. This is surreal to them. Give some time for the sanctions to percolate.

pmontra 5y ago

News are that we'll have replace 2/3 of Russian gas from somebody else by the end of the year [1]. It's going to be a rougher transition if we have to replace all of it but it's worth it. Same with wheat and oil. Hard times for a while but better than having to bow to Mr Putin. And this is only money, not bombs like in Ukraine. By the way, the countries we'll be buying from are not much nicer than Putin's Russia (some of them maybe even less so) but at least they are smaller and hopefully more manageable. The next one to cut ties with should be China but that's a giant rope to undo. [1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/europe-plans-to-slash-russian-gas-imports-by-66-this-year/ar-AAUMlOM https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/europe-plans-to-slash-r...

MayeulC 5y ago

Maybe not as much as it's made out to be? Only a few european countries rely heavily on russian gas (on the top of my head, germany and italy). It wouldn't be fun, but we can heavily invest in converting heating systems, and turn off some electricity sinks (industrial equipment, etc). Make the grid smarter to turn off equipment when demand is high. Meanwhile, accelerate the deployment of alternative energy sources, storage, and diversify hydrocarbon procurement sources. Basically what should have been done progressively, not that it wasn't called out. Both reducing reliance on Russia and phasing out carbon-intensive energy sources. It's mind-blowing that we made no progress on these, and now it looks like germany is doubling down on it.