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The NATO expansion angle seems like a distraction. The rambling speech Putin gave at the outset of the invasion outlined his pet theory that Ukraine is part of

by ch4s3 5y ago

The NATO expansion angle seems like a distraction. The rambling speech Putin gave at the outset of the invasion outlined his pet theory that Ukraine is part of broader Russia and that he doesn't see them as a separate people. He's long said that the dissolution of the USSR was the greatest catastrophe in Russian history. It's pretty clear that his aim is a revanchist restoration of historical Russian territory. It is also worth noting that NATO does not expand by invasion or recruitment. Member nations all have to apply to join and be democracies, meaning that at least notionally their people have to want to be in NATO. And why would former Soviet Republic want to be in NATO? Most of them say it's because they're afraid of Russian invasion. It's worth noting that Russia has recently invaded Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine. Those fears don't spring from a place of pure paranoia. It also seems unrealistic that there will be long term alignment between Russia and China, they're natural rivals. Russia still holds contested territory that used to be part of China. Even under the Soviet system they tolerated each other at best, and entered into armed conflict in 1969. China officially calls that conflict an act of Russian aggression, even after hammering out a deal with Lavrov in 2008.

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
So we'll discard everything about Ukraine that Western strategists said before Putin started his war? https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 That cannot be a distraction. You speak about the rambling speech but what about his 2007 speech? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Putin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Puti...
- ch4s3 5y ago
  I'm sure Putin was angry about the missile shield project in 2007, but that's an insane reason to invade a country that isn't part of Nato in 2022. I've read all of those arguments from the think tanks, but again NATO doesn't pick new members like some sort of playground kick ball team. New member ask to join because they feel threatened by Russia specifically. NATO could turn them down, but that's not really in the spirit of the treaty, and gives a hecklers veto to Russia. Putin's earlier speeches essentially boil down to a threat that he'll invade any neighbors who try to join a defense pact designed to protect them from Russian invasion. You could call that realpolitik, but it looks an awful lot like revanchism. I would also point out that NATO has never attacked Russia, but Russia has attacked a bunch of places that aren't part of NATO. Defending Eastern Europe from Russian invasion isn't aggression against Russia. I actually don't even like NATO or think the US should be part of it, but all Putin is doing here is using it as a pretext to capture territory. He made that perfectly clear on the eve of the invasion.
rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
>And why would former Soviet Republic want to be in NATO? Most of them say it's because they're afraid of Russian invasion. So you have a big countries that, for various reasons (WWII and Cold War, for one) fear about its security. They said repeatedly that they'll act if the US continues to expand NATO further onto Russia's borders. Russia intervenes so countries close to Russia fear they might be invade. I fully understand the legitimate fear of these countries but why NATO wants to continue to expand when the US/EU knows perfectly that this only makes Russia more aggressive. We (the West) knew that Russia would act (military if need be https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 but because we refuses to tell Ukraine that NATO is full, we have Russia invading Ukraine and we refuse to defend them military. How is this positive for Ukrainians? They won't join NATO (because the West doesn't want to go to war with Russia directly) but they'll be ruined by a tragic war. Only China is winning here.
- ch4s3 5y ago
  > but why NATO wants to continue to expand when the US/EU knows perfectly that this only makes Russia more aggressive This seems ridiculous to me. Russia has been aggressive to its neighbors for a hundred years. > They won't join NATO (because the West doesn't want to go to war with Russia directly) but they'll be ruined by a tragic war. They couldn't join because the second Viktor Yanukovych was gone, Russia invaded the east and took Crimea. You can't join NATO while in an active conflict. People seem to be forgetting that the very second his henchman got tossed out he invaded. The precipitating event was a trade deal with the EU, not a bid to enter NATO.

by ch4s3 5y ago

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago

So we'll discard everything about Ukraine that Western strategists said before Putin started his war? https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 That cannot be a distraction. You speak about the rambling speech but what about his 2007 speech? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Putin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Puti...

ch4s3 5y ago
I'm sure Putin was angry about the missile shield project in 2007, but that's an insane reason to invade a country that isn't part of Nato in 2022. I've read all of those arguments from the think tanks, but again NATO doesn't pick new members like some sort of playground kick ball team. New member ask to join because they feel threatened by Russia specifically. NATO could turn them down, but that's not really in the spirit of the treaty, and gives a hecklers veto to Russia. Putin's earlier speeches essentially boil down to a threat that he'll invade any neighbors who try to join a defense pact designed to protect them from Russian invasion. You could call that realpolitik, but it looks an awful lot like revanchism. I would also point out that NATO has never attacked Russia, but Russia has attacked a bunch of places that aren't part of NATO. Defending Eastern Europe from Russian invasion isn't aggression against Russia. I actually don't even like NATO or think the US should be part of it, but all Putin is doing here is using it as a pretext to capture territory. He made that perfectly clear on the eve of the invasion.

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago

>And why would former Soviet Republic want to be in NATO? Most of them say it's because they're afraid of Russian invasion. So you have a big countries that, for various reasons (WWII and Cold War, for one) fear about its security. They said repeatedly that they'll act if the US continues to expand NATO further onto Russia's borders. Russia intervenes so countries close to Russia fear they might be invade. I fully understand the legitimate fear of these countries but why NATO wants to continue to expand when the US/EU knows perfectly that this only makes Russia more aggressive. We (the West) knew that Russia would act (military if need be https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 but because we refuses to tell Ukraine that NATO is full, we have Russia invading Ukraine and we refuse to defend them military. How is this positive for Ukrainians? They won't join NATO (because the West doesn't want to go to war with Russia directly) but they'll be ruined by a tragic war. Only China is winning here.

ch4s3 5y ago
> but why NATO wants to continue to expand when the US/EU knows perfectly that this only makes Russia more aggressive This seems ridiculous to me. Russia has been aggressive to its neighbors for a hundred years. > They won't join NATO (because the West doesn't want to go to war with Russia directly) but they'll be ruined by a tragic war. They couldn't join because the second Viktor Yanukovych was gone, Russia invaded the east and took Crimea. You can't join NATO while in an active conflict. People seem to be forgetting that the very second his henchman got tossed out he invaded. The precipitating event was a trade deal with the EU, not a bid to enter NATO.