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China's support while Russia negotiate Ukraine permanent neutrality with NATO/EU (with troops on the field). What's the price of Ukraine as a non-Western state

China's support while Russia negotiate Ukraine permanent neutrality with NATO/EU (with troops on the field). What's the price of Ukraine as a non-Western state? I'm surprised we can spend hours valuing the cost of the sanctions but few can put a price on what Putin has been asking for.

thinkingemote 5y ago
The price is similar to giving your pocket money to the school bully. It's not just a one time price. Perhaps if the message is "I'm not a bully, I'm a school monitor with a badge to prove it" maybe it's different. The best question to pose oneself is, if NATO was such a bully instead, where is the moral, good, international aid, charity, role model and respect that Putin has performed in times of peace? Where is his school monitor badge that he should have got?
- vkou 5y ago
  In a few weeks, there will be no more non-NATO countries on Russia's western border, and you will have nothing to be concerned about. Anyone who thinks Russia can invade NATO is as mistaken as the Russians that currently believe NATO can, and wants to, invade Russia. There are, unfortunately, hundreds of millions of people who believe one or the other.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    Let's see. I bet neither NATO nor the EU will consider accepting Ukraine or Georgia as new members, after Russia proved they're ready to invade these countries to defend their interests. Do you believe the West would go to war with Russia, only to add a few members to a giant military alliance that was designed for a post-WWII world? The US will retreat and focus on China and the EU will try to become more independent from NATO and Russia (and they'll negotiate with Putin if need be, unless he already jumped on China's side for good).
    - greedo 5y ago
      Sweden and Finland are putting out feelers towards joining NATO.
    - vkou 5y ago
      > Do you believe the West would go to war with Russia, only to add a few members to a giant military alliance that was designed for a post-WWII world? No, I believe that alliance will defend its members, and given that Russia can't even successfully bully the poorest country in Europe, it is in no position to start a war over Finland or Sweden. Of course Ukraine won't be a part of NATO. The US can't withdraw from Europe, unless it wants to see the American hegemony collapse overnight. And if we know anything about empires, it's that they will keep hold on what they've spent decades building long past the point of positive ROI or reason.
    - cmurf 5y ago
      The invasion was not at all defensive as defined in U.N. charter article 51. This war is a direct violation of article 2. Russia is a party to the charter, this war is expressly prohibited under it. Russia is also a party to the Budapest Memorandum in which they recognized Ukraine's sovereignty and 1994 borders, with the only condition being Ukraine become a non-nuclear nation under the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty. Had Ukraine been a member of NATO or the EU would Russia have invaded? Almost certainly not, and that's because of the credible use of overwhelming military power to repel such an attempt. Why is the U.N. system inadequate in this case? Article 39 and 41 give the Security Council the power to repel breaches to the peace using armed force. But Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and thus effectively has a veto vote (lack of consent to use armed forces against itself is a certain outcome). This exposes a real problem when the belligerent is a member of the Security Council. And as Russia cannot be trusted to honor their agreements, and the U.N. Security Council in matters involving Russian aggression can't be depended on, it is completely reasonable for the EU to bring in Ukraine and Georgia as members rather than have Russia initiate yet another war right on Europe's doorstep. This is the third time Putin has waged an aggressive war without provocation or any compelling case for defense. And hopefully it still is a post-WW2 world. Putin is seemingly making a case of a pre-WW2 view of "might makes right" without any international system of peacefully resolving disputes. He's certainly not bound by any agreements. It's a recipe for a very expensive second Cold War.

thinkingemote 5y ago

The price is similar to giving your pocket money to the school bully. It's not just a one time price. Perhaps if the message is "I'm not a bully, I'm a school monitor with a badge to prove it" maybe it's different. The best question to pose oneself is, if NATO was such a bully instead, where is the moral, good, international aid, charity, role model and respect that Putin has performed in times of peace? Where is his school monitor badge that he should have got?

vkou 5y ago
In a few weeks, there will be no more non-NATO countries on Russia's western border, and you will have nothing to be concerned about. Anyone who thinks Russia can invade NATO is as mistaken as the Russians that currently believe NATO can, and wants to, invade Russia. There are, unfortunately, hundreds of millions of people who believe one or the other.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  Let's see. I bet neither NATO nor the EU will consider accepting Ukraine or Georgia as new members, after Russia proved they're ready to invade these countries to defend their interests. Do you believe the West would go to war with Russia, only to add a few members to a giant military alliance that was designed for a post-WWII world? The US will retreat and focus on China and the EU will try to become more independent from NATO and Russia (and they'll negotiate with Putin if need be, unless he already jumped on China's side for good).
  - greedo 5y ago
    Sweden and Finland are putting out feelers towards joining NATO.
  - vkou 5y ago
    > Do you believe the West would go to war with Russia, only to add a few members to a giant military alliance that was designed for a post-WWII world? No, I believe that alliance will defend its members, and given that Russia can't even successfully bully the poorest country in Europe, it is in no position to start a war over Finland or Sweden. Of course Ukraine won't be a part of NATO. The US can't withdraw from Europe, unless it wants to see the American hegemony collapse overnight. And if we know anything about empires, it's that they will keep hold on what they've spent decades building long past the point of positive ROI or reason.
  - cmurf 5y ago
    The invasion was not at all defensive as defined in U.N. charter article 51. This war is a direct violation of article 2. Russia is a party to the charter, this war is expressly prohibited under it. Russia is also a party to the Budapest Memorandum in which they recognized Ukraine's sovereignty and 1994 borders, with the only condition being Ukraine become a non-nuclear nation under the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty. Had Ukraine been a member of NATO or the EU would Russia have invaded? Almost certainly not, and that's because of the credible use of overwhelming military power to repel such an attempt. Why is the U.N. system inadequate in this case? Article 39 and 41 give the Security Council the power to repel breaches to the peace using armed force. But Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and thus effectively has a veto vote (lack of consent to use armed forces against itself is a certain outcome). This exposes a real problem when the belligerent is a member of the Security Council. And as Russia cannot be trusted to honor their agreements, and the U.N. Security Council in matters involving Russian aggression can't be depended on, it is completely reasonable for the EU to bring in Ukraine and Georgia as members rather than have Russia initiate yet another war right on Europe's doorstep. This is the third time Putin has waged an aggressive war without provocation or any compelling case for defense. And hopefully it still is a post-WW2 world. Putin is seemingly making a case of a pre-WW2 view of "might makes right" without any international system of peacefully resolving disputes. He's certainly not bound by any agreements. It's a recipe for a very expensive second Cold War.