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How is this folly? Joe Biden said, in 1997, that the only thing that could provoke a "vigorous and hostile" Russian response would be if NATO expanded as far a

How is this folly? Joe Biden said, in 1997, that the only thing that could provoke a "vigorous and hostile" Russian response would be if NATO expanded as far as the Baltic states. That was several years before Putin became president. https://twitter.com/ImReadinHere/status/1500782351831662592 https://twitter.com/ImReadinHere/status/1500782351831662592 He also said "good luck" to Russia when told that they may have to look to China as an alternative if NATO keeps expanding. In 1997. https://twitter.com/ImReadinHere/status/1500784522023034882 https://twitter.com/ImReadinHere/status/1500784522023034882 We knew how Russia would react, with or without Putin. But it is now folly? Russia knows the hyperpower is China now and is acting accordingly. China encourages Russia to oppose NATO in Europe, preventing the US from focusing fully on Asia, forcing the EU to become more independent and weakening the US' influence on the world stage. And Europe pretends to want to become independent from Russia but that requires an full transition to non-carbon energy – and this won't happen anytime soon (since Europe is still following a neoliberal playbook that make such transition a "folly" in the leaders' eye). Russia knows the West's weak points and understand that now is the right time to exploit them. The West continues to believe it's Putin's folly but they're the one losing a critical ally to China. I'm sorry to war victims, but this is far more important than negotiating Ukraine's neutrality. Too bad we had to let Putin go to war as NATO and the EU could have a agreed to this and avoid a war (that weakens both Europe and Russia in the short term, and the West in the long term).

ch4s3 5y ago
The NATO expansion angle seems like a distraction. The rambling speech Putin gave at the outset of the invasion outlined his pet theory that Ukraine is part of broader Russia and that he doesn't see them as a separate people. He's long said that the dissolution of the USSR was the greatest catastrophe in Russian history. It's pretty clear that his aim is a revanchist restoration of historical Russian territory. It is also worth noting that NATO does not expand by invasion or recruitment. Member nations all have to apply to join and be democracies, meaning that at least notionally their people have to want to be in NATO. And why would former Soviet Republic want to be in NATO? Most of them say it's because they're afraid of Russian invasion. It's worth noting that Russia has recently invaded Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine. Those fears don't spring from a place of pure paranoia. It also seems unrealistic that there will be long term alignment between Russia and China, they're natural rivals. Russia still holds contested territory that used to be part of China. Even under the Soviet system they tolerated each other at best, and entered into armed conflict in 1969. China officially calls that conflict an act of Russian aggression, even after hammering out a deal with Lavrov in 2008.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  So we'll discard everything about Ukraine that Western strategists said before Putin started his war? https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 That cannot be a distraction. You speak about the rambling speech but what about his 2007 speech? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Putin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Puti...
  - ch4s3 5y ago
    I'm sure Putin was angry about the missile shield project in 2007, but that's an insane reason to invade a country that isn't part of Nato in 2022. I've read all of those arguments from the think tanks, but again NATO doesn't pick new members like some sort of playground kick ball team. New member ask to join because they feel threatened by Russia specifically. NATO could turn them down, but that's not really in the spirit of the treaty, and gives a hecklers veto to Russia. Putin's earlier speeches essentially boil down to a threat that he'll invade any neighbors who try to join a defense pact designed to protect them from Russian invasion. You could call that realpolitik, but it looks an awful lot like revanchism. I would also point out that NATO has never attacked Russia, but Russia has attacked a bunch of places that aren't part of NATO. Defending Eastern Europe from Russian invasion isn't aggression against Russia. I actually don't even like NATO or think the US should be part of it, but all Putin is doing here is using it as a pretext to capture territory. He made that perfectly clear on the eve of the invasion.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  >And why would former Soviet Republic want to be in NATO? Most of them say it's because they're afraid of Russian invasion. So you have a big countries that, for various reasons (WWII and Cold War, for one) fear about its security. They said repeatedly that they'll act if the US continues to expand NATO further onto Russia's borders. Russia intervenes so countries close to Russia fear they might be invade. I fully understand the legitimate fear of these countries but why NATO wants to continue to expand when the US/EU knows perfectly that this only makes Russia more aggressive. We (the West) knew that Russia would act (military if need be https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 but because we refuses to tell Ukraine that NATO is full, we have Russia invading Ukraine and we refuse to defend them military. How is this positive for Ukrainians? They won't join NATO (because the West doesn't want to go to war with Russia directly) but they'll be ruined by a tragic war. Only China is winning here.
mc32 5y ago
Yes, I understand that we the west have reneged on a tacit agreement to not expand NATO in certain sensitive border areas. And Joe Biden is guilty of bravado… but Russia going in like that makes no sense whatsoever. They are antagonizing everyone but a handful of countries and it’s resulting in galvanized opposition to him —even internally. To use an overwrought phrase the invasion was a huge foot-gun.

ch4s3 5y ago

The NATO expansion angle seems like a distraction. The rambling speech Putin gave at the outset of the invasion outlined his pet theory that Ukraine is part of broader Russia and that he doesn't see them as a separate people. He's long said that the dissolution of the USSR was the greatest catastrophe in Russian history. It's pretty clear that his aim is a revanchist restoration of historical Russian territory. It is also worth noting that NATO does not expand by invasion or recruitment. Member nations all have to apply to join and be democracies, meaning that at least notionally their people have to want to be in NATO. And why would former Soviet Republic want to be in NATO? Most of them say it's because they're afraid of Russian invasion. It's worth noting that Russia has recently invaded Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine. Those fears don't spring from a place of pure paranoia. It also seems unrealistic that there will be long term alignment between Russia and China, they're natural rivals. Russia still holds contested territory that used to be part of China. Even under the Soviet system they tolerated each other at best, and entered into armed conflict in 1969. China officially calls that conflict an act of Russian aggression, even after hammering out a deal with Lavrov in 2008.

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
So we'll discard everything about Ukraine that Western strategists said before Putin started his war? https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 That cannot be a distraction. You speak about the rambling speech but what about his 2007 speech? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Putin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Puti...
- ch4s3 5y ago
  I'm sure Putin was angry about the missile shield project in 2007, but that's an insane reason to invade a country that isn't part of Nato in 2022. I've read all of those arguments from the think tanks, but again NATO doesn't pick new members like some sort of playground kick ball team. New member ask to join because they feel threatened by Russia specifically. NATO could turn them down, but that's not really in the spirit of the treaty, and gives a hecklers veto to Russia. Putin's earlier speeches essentially boil down to a threat that he'll invade any neighbors who try to join a defense pact designed to protect them from Russian invasion. You could call that realpolitik, but it looks an awful lot like revanchism. I would also point out that NATO has never attacked Russia, but Russia has attacked a bunch of places that aren't part of NATO. Defending Eastern Europe from Russian invasion isn't aggression against Russia. I actually don't even like NATO or think the US should be part of it, but all Putin is doing here is using it as a pretext to capture territory. He made that perfectly clear on the eve of the invasion.
rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
>And why would former Soviet Republic want to be in NATO? Most of them say it's because they're afraid of Russian invasion. So you have a big countries that, for various reasons (WWII and Cold War, for one) fear about its security. They said repeatedly that they'll act if the US continues to expand NATO further onto Russia's borders. Russia intervenes so countries close to Russia fear they might be invade. I fully understand the legitimate fear of these countries but why NATO wants to continue to expand when the US/EU knows perfectly that this only makes Russia more aggressive. We (the West) knew that Russia would act (military if need be https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 but because we refuses to tell Ukraine that NATO is full, we have Russia invading Ukraine and we refuse to defend them military. How is this positive for Ukrainians? They won't join NATO (because the West doesn't want to go to war with Russia directly) but they'll be ruined by a tragic war. Only China is winning here.

mc32 5y ago

Yes, I understand that we the west have reneged on a tacit agreement to not expand NATO in certain sensitive border areas. And Joe Biden is guilty of bravado… but Russia going in like that makes no sense whatsoever. They are antagonizing everyone but a handful of countries and it’s resulting in galvanized opposition to him —even internally. To use an overwrought phrase the invasion was a huge foot-gun.