I think the calculus is to capture Ukrainian territory whatever the cost now, if millions are starved/bombed, all the better, areas would be repopulated with so

I think the calculus is to capture Ukrainian territory whatever the cost now, if millions are starved/bombed, all the better, areas would be repopulated with some Russians and would forever join the "Russian world". Same thing was done by Stalin so the blueprint is there. Then the West, which is weak in Putin's worldview, would drop some of the more disastrous sanctions cause Western politicians need to get re-elected and recessions are bad for their prospects. Putin would continue buying up Western elites, fostering divisions, and in 1-2 election cycles everyone would forget about Russia or Ukraine, stretch goal is the disintegration of NATO by American withdrawal. So in a decade there would be no sanctions and Ukrainian territory would belong to Putin. Speed of Western abandonment of Ukraine would decide how soon Putin attacks other countries. Obviously Russian people would suffer in between but 1) Putin doesn't care about them 2) They would be cheering anyway.