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>> To win, you need a reasonably deep understanding of the entities in the game, and their abstract relationships to one another. Ultimately, players need to re
by YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
>> To win, you need a reasonably deep understanding of the entities in the game,
and their abstract relationships to one another. Ultimately, players need to
reason about what they can and cannot do in a complex world.
On this, I'm not with Gary Marcus. I think Nethack will probably fall to deep
learning at some point, just like other games that everyone thought "require
reasoning", like Go, most notably [1]. Perhaps some combination of a classical
search with a deep neural net trained with self-play to guide the search will do
it. Perhaps some other approach suffering from data and compute gigantism will
do it.
In any case, what I've learned in the last few years is that there isn't any
single problem that deep learning approaches can't solve just by training on
tragicomic amounts of data, even if it's so much data that only the likes of
Google and Facebook can do the actual training. Assuming that a problem can
_only_ be solved by reasoning is setting yourself up for a nasty surprise.
After all, PAC-Learning, what we have by ways of a theory in machine learning,
does not assume any ability for reasoning. PAC-Learning assumes instead that a
concept is a set of instances and that a learner has learned a concept when it
can correctly label an instance as a member of a concept, or not, with
arbitrarily low probability of arbitrarily low error. In that sense, a system
that can only memorise instances can still achieve arbitrarily low error simply
by memorising sufficiently many instances. No reasoning needed, whatsoever.
Indeed, this is precisely why deep neural nets need to be trained with so much
data. Because they are simply trying to memorise enough instances of a concept
to minimise their error. So, given enough data, deep neural nets can beat any
benchmark. They'll eventually beat Nethack.
And we'll still not have learned anything useful, and certainly not beaten a
path towards AGI. Machine learning is stuck in a rut where it advances from one
little, over-specialised benchmark to the next. We won't make any progress
just by coming up with new benchmarks.
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[1] Chess had already fallen to symbolic approaches: a book of opening moves and
minimax with alpha-beta cutoff; that was Deep Blue, the system that beat Gary
Kasparov, and that, despite its name, was not a deep learning system, but a
Good, Old-Fashioned AI, symbolic system.
- redytedy 5y ago>> Indeed, this is precisely why deep neural nets need to be trained with so much data. Because they are simply trying to memorise enough instances of a concept to minimise their error. Uh, the degree to which this is true is hotly -contested and an active area of research. Some architectures appear to generalize within domains. You can't conclude this from the assumptions made in the PAC-Learnability proof..
- YeGoblynQueenne 5y agoSorry, my fault: I don't mean that PAC-Learnability means that neural nets memorise their training instances. That's more my interpretation of their observed behaviour, if you like. What I meant was that PAC-Learnability doesn't assume any ability like reasoning, and really no other ability than er, PAC-Learnability. There's a debate, of course. I like to point to Domingos' paper: Every Model Learned by Gradient Descent Is Approximately a Kernel Machine https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.00152 https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.00152 With the full understanding that it's just one paper.