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Doubt it. China will def preserve TSMC. Taiwanese engineers would just work for the mainland.

randomhodler84 5y ago
China won’t have the chance. The fabs will be destroyed before the first PLA foot hits the ground. All parties know this. It will set the world back decades.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  No parties know this. Entire TW will blow up its own fabs started off as meme that people have ran with. The only serious analysis about deliberately blowing up TW fabs was by US Army War College on the poor premise that it would deter PRC invasion when destroying fabs work in PRC favor by resetting everyone back decades... closing the gap. It's more likely US & PRC will coordinate to save TW fabs with TW leadership cooperation because US controls inputs via supply chain and save trillions in US advanced industies. TW leadership will cooperate because not wiping out advanced western industry is the one golden ticket they have of comfortable retirement in the west. PRC gains leverage and access by hosting fabs. 100,000s of TW semi engineers has a comfortable future working status quo. It's basically the only arrangement that works out for everyone versus semiconductor mutually assured destruction. Reality is US has leverage via tech sanctions during peacetime, PRC has leverage during wartime by threatening to destroy all east asia semi supply chain which will kick world back to 80s instead of 00s. It's in everyone's interest not to normalize disrupting semi production.
  - baybal2 5y ago
  - dirtyid 5y ago
    @baybal2 Your comment is dead. It's US publication, they're not blackmailing themself unless drive for strategic clarity. But not compelling deterrence. Response in TW media to report was leave TSMC alone. Nothing official I've read suggest blowing up fabs for US protection since US protection is for those fabs. Like I don't doubt TW will play blackmail card if viable, but US can't slap enough free missile defense to make TW semi supply chain defendable. On point two, perhaps. In the meantime, I assume it will take decades to reshore supply chains independent of TW making for some uneasy peace. I'll be stocking up on hardware. E: Shame, a lot of your comments are dead actually.
- goldname 5y ago
  What? This makes no sense. TSMC destroying their fabs isn't gonna set the world back decades, it's just going to inflate the cost of chips. And China wouldn't even going to do a full scale invasion anyways. An assassination + puppet gov installation is much more likely.

China won’t have the chance. The fabs will be destroyed before the first PLA foot hits the ground. All parties know this. It will set the world back decades.

dirtyid 5y ago
No parties know this. Entire TW will blow up its own fabs started off as meme that people have ran with. The only serious analysis about deliberately blowing up TW fabs was by US Army War College on the poor premise that it would deter PRC invasion when destroying fabs work in PRC favor by resetting everyone back decades... closing the gap. It's more likely US & PRC will coordinate to save TW fabs with TW leadership cooperation because US controls inputs via supply chain and save trillions in US advanced industies. TW leadership will cooperate because not wiping out advanced western industry is the one golden ticket they have of comfortable retirement in the west. PRC gains leverage and access by hosting fabs. 100,000s of TW semi engineers has a comfortable future working status quo. It's basically the only arrangement that works out for everyone versus semiconductor mutually assured destruction. Reality is US has leverage via tech sanctions during peacetime, PRC has leverage during wartime by threatening to destroy all east asia semi supply chain which will kick world back to 80s instead of 00s. It's in everyone's interest not to normalize disrupting semi production.
- baybal2 5y ago
- dirtyid 5y ago
  @baybal2 Your comment is dead. It's US publication, they're not blackmailing themself unless drive for strategic clarity. But not compelling deterrence. Response in TW media to report was leave TSMC alone. Nothing official I've read suggest blowing up fabs for US protection since US protection is for those fabs. Like I don't doubt TW will play blackmail card if viable, but US can't slap enough free missile defense to make TW semi supply chain defendable. On point two, perhaps. In the meantime, I assume it will take decades to reshore supply chains independent of TW making for some uneasy peace. I'll be stocking up on hardware. E: Shame, a lot of your comments are dead actually.
goldname 5y ago
What? This makes no sense. TSMC destroying their fabs isn't gonna set the world back decades, it's just going to inflate the cost of chips. And China wouldn't even going to do a full scale invasion anyways. An assassination + puppet gov installation is much more likely.