That would be 49!/(43!6!) = 13983816 combinations. So, on average, you need to play 13983816 times before your first win (geometric distribution). At one game a

That would be 49!/(43!6!) = 13983816 combinations. So, on average, you need to play 13983816 times before your first win (geometric distribution). At one game a day, that's nearly 40000 years.