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> The Great Dying (due to COVID-19) Repeating this wise comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23769427 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23769427 T

> The Great Dying (due to COVID-19) Repeating this wise comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23769427 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23769427 The COVID death counts are hopelessly over-counted. This is why there's a cottage industry of people pointing out things like "COVID deaths" which mysteriously also suffered from being murdered, or drug overdoses, or undiagnosed leukaemia. Then you get into the problem of care homes being authorised to report COVID deaths without any testing or formally trained opinion at all.

deleted 5y ago
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9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
How about undercounting? There’s very likely to be severe undercounting of COVID-19 due to the same reasons that crimes of victimization are underreported: shame. Not to mention the swaths of homeless and disabled people that probably didn’t get counted.
- panarky 5y ago
  Not to mention all the cases detected with home antigen tests and never reported to a lab.
gilbetron 5y ago
It's shocking to see such a statement so far into the pandemic. This is solved and known already, and while complicated, we've figured it out for some time. We can easily see the massive amount of deaths when we look at excess death numbers. Covid deaths are, if anything, undercounted. To believe anything else at this point is to bury your head in the sand and avoid all scientific evidence and medical consensus. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-are-covid-19-deaths-counted-and-what-does-this-mean https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-are-covid-19-d...
- MatteoFrigo 5y ago
  I won't argue this topic since this thread is about AWS, but the article that you quote says "Experts calculate the excess death rate by comparing figures for a given period with the average for that same period over several previous years." That's not how experts calculate excess deaths, since that algorithm produces totally bogus answers. Here is how real experts compute excess deaths, compensating for seasonality and population changes: https://euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/ https://euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/
- jimmydorry 5y ago
  Excess deaths is a perfectly valid statistic to base policy off... if policy makers maintained a hands-off approach and didn't radically change society through out the pandemic. Can you in good conscience say that the typical rate of death remained steady while the following happened: * a majority of given populations remained at home (lock downs - meaning no travelling to work in multi-tonne death traps) * practised increased hygiene protocols (masks, more frequent hand washing) * did not visit elderly homes (at least, less than usual) * many people were reluctant to get timely health care (due to fear of catching COVID from medical facilities) * ate worse and excersied less * infected elderly patients were sent back to their nursing homes (to typically infect the entire facility) There are so many confounding factors that on the face of it, should result in a radically different death profile... and almost every country faced the above to different extents. Anyone claiming to be able to work out the actual number of people who died from COVID-19 from excess deaths is being disingenous at best.
  - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
    > Anyone claiming to be able to work out the actual number of people who died from COVID-19 from excess deaths is being disingenous at best. I think you have that backwards: disingenuous at worst, a scientist at best.

deleted 5y ago

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9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago

How about undercounting? There’s very likely to be severe undercounting of COVID-19 due to the same reasons that crimes of victimization are underreported: shame. Not to mention the swaths of homeless and disabled people that probably didn’t get counted.

panarky 5y ago
Not to mention all the cases detected with home antigen tests and never reported to a lab.

gilbetron 5y ago

It's shocking to see such a statement so far into the pandemic. This is solved and known already, and while complicated, we've figured it out for some time. We can easily see the massive amount of deaths when we look at excess death numbers. Covid deaths are, if anything, undercounted. To believe anything else at this point is to bury your head in the sand and avoid all scientific evidence and medical consensus. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-are-covid-19-deaths-counted-and-what-does-this-mean https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-are-covid-19-d...

MatteoFrigo 5y ago
I won't argue this topic since this thread is about AWS, but the article that you quote says "Experts calculate the excess death rate by comparing figures for a given period with the average for that same period over several previous years." That's not how experts calculate excess deaths, since that algorithm produces totally bogus answers. Here is how real experts compute excess deaths, compensating for seasonality and population changes: https://euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/ https://euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/
jimmydorry 5y ago
Excess deaths is a perfectly valid statistic to base policy off... if policy makers maintained a hands-off approach and didn't radically change society through out the pandemic. Can you in good conscience say that the typical rate of death remained steady while the following happened: * a majority of given populations remained at home (lock downs - meaning no travelling to work in multi-tonne death traps) * practised increased hygiene protocols (masks, more frequent hand washing) * did not visit elderly homes (at least, less than usual) * many people were reluctant to get timely health care (due to fear of catching COVID from medical facilities) * ate worse and excersied less * infected elderly patients were sent back to their nursing homes (to typically infect the entire facility) There are so many confounding factors that on the face of it, should result in a radically different death profile... and almost every country faced the above to different extents. Anyone claiming to be able to work out the actual number of people who died from COVID-19 from excess deaths is being disingenous at best.
- 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
  > Anyone claiming to be able to work out the actual number of people who died from COVID-19 from excess deaths is being disingenous at best. I think you have that backwards: disingenuous at worst, a scientist at best.