3 ms·

My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR. This puts heat on Poland e

My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR. This puts heat on Poland et al. Poland unceremoniously deflects by proposing (threatening) to transfer planes to US bases in Germany, a polite way of saying no-you. Either stops the pressure or in case of US/DE saying yes, Poland gets to trade in obsolete migs for discount/ first dibs on F16s without painting target on back.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR. No, the US has been fairly consistently negative to neutral on it; the strongest it's gotten for it is a positive signal that it won't oppose it if they choose to do it. (Which seems to be a recent policy change; the initial NATO opposition after the EU official tweeting the idea had to have at least involved consulting the US.)
- dirtyid 5y ago
  US wouldnt have considered backfilling poland with f16s in 3 way trade deal a few days ago if they were merely neutral/negative. That reads as low key wink wink nudge nudge endorsement.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > US wouldnt have considered backfilling poland with f16s in 3 way trade deal a few days ago if they were merely neutral/negative. They would if they independently wanted Poland off of MiG-29s and more completely on a combination of F-35s and F-16s for the role (which, yes, they do.) > That reads as low key wink wink nudge nudge endorsement. Which is a lot different from pressure to do it.
    - dirtyid 5y ago
      Poland was pivoting away from RU hardware regardless, US offer to backfill to speed up already inevitable process makes no sense outside of endorsing/pushing through tranfer. >Which is a lot different from pressure to do it. Poland wouldn't have "stunned" US by offering transfers to US/DE custody otherwise, it's dick move political signal. Poland has been vocal about US pressure on PRC recently as well, wouldn't be surprising if US pressuring against RU as well.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR. No, the US has been fairly consistently negative to neutral on it; the strongest it's gotten for it is a positive signal that it won't oppose it if they choose to do it. (Which seems to be a recent policy change; the initial NATO opposition after the EU official tweeting the idea had to have at least involved consulting the US.)

dirtyid 5y ago
US wouldnt have considered backfilling poland with f16s in 3 way trade deal a few days ago if they were merely neutral/negative. That reads as low key wink wink nudge nudge endorsement.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > US wouldnt have considered backfilling poland with f16s in 3 way trade deal a few days ago if they were merely neutral/negative. They would if they independently wanted Poland off of MiG-29s and more completely on a combination of F-35s and F-16s for the role (which, yes, they do.) > That reads as low key wink wink nudge nudge endorsement. Which is a lot different from pressure to do it.
  - dirtyid 5y ago
    Poland was pivoting away from RU hardware regardless, US offer to backfill to speed up already inevitable process makes no sense outside of endorsing/pushing through tranfer. >Which is a lot different from pressure to do it. Poland wouldn't have "stunned" US by offering transfers to US/DE custody otherwise, it's dick move political signal. Poland has been vocal about US pressure on PRC recently as well, wouldn't be surprising if US pressuring against RU as well.