4 ms·

By refusing the US is sending a message - they can change their minds if the Russians don't negotiate

mytailorisrich 5y ago
Considering the speed and scale of sanctions against Russia, I am thinking that the US might actually be after 'regime change' in Russia. If so, is ending the war now the best option to reach that goal? In any case, it seems that everyone want to avoid escalation and being dragged into the military conflict.
- jsmith45 5y ago
  The US wants Russia to stop trying to attack and annex its neighbors, including Ukraine. My understanding is that Putin can't stop the invasion of Ukraine without looking so weak that he is liable to be immediately pushed out of power (with a decent chance of the subsequent regime coming up with some reason to execute him, as he would remain a threat to the new regime). The result is that while the US does not necessarily want a Russian regime change per se (after all, who is to say that the next regime won't be worse), one is pretty much a practical requirement to archive what they do want.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    I think the two main interests of the US in all that are to weaken Russia as much as possible and to break the close relationship with China, with domino effects in Belarus and Kazakhstan (which would hit China's interests as well). So ideally they want a weak, Western-friendly regime. But that may be wishful thinking because that's not Russia's historical stance and interests. Whatever we think of Putin, his general aims are an independent, strong and powerful Russia that gains some of the ground lost, which are quite aligned with Russia's historical behaviour.
    - mc32 5y ago
      I think the US would prefer a strong but US-friendly Russia to counter other actors in the area. Strong does not mean expansionist. Trying to set-up regimes is mostly miss --we have quite a bit of experience in that area including Ukraine with the Orange revolution, KSA... and obviously many other places as well. Russia/the SU have an equal amount of experience but have had better results --served better (Cuba, Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc.)
      - mytailorisrich 5y ago
        I don't think strong and US-friendly is a realistic combination. Russian and American geo-political interests are not aligned, and a strong Russia would push for its own interests and power as they are doing now (though they may have overplayed their hand).
        mc32 5y ago
        There is always a chance. Yeltsin was that --albeit he was the wrong buy to have there --an alcoholic who didn't care about any consequence to his country. But someone like Medvedev, who had a business focus, could have had potential to create some allyship --such as had existed prior to the WWs --with other European nations as well as the US.

Considering the speed and scale of sanctions against Russia, I am thinking that the US might actually be after 'regime change' in Russia. If so, is ending the war now the best option to reach that goal? In any case, it seems that everyone want to avoid escalation and being dragged into the military conflict.

jsmith45 5y ago
The US wants Russia to stop trying to attack and annex its neighbors, including Ukraine. My understanding is that Putin can't stop the invasion of Ukraine without looking so weak that he is liable to be immediately pushed out of power (with a decent chance of the subsequent regime coming up with some reason to execute him, as he would remain a threat to the new regime). The result is that while the US does not necessarily want a Russian regime change per se (after all, who is to say that the next regime won't be worse), one is pretty much a practical requirement to archive what they do want.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  I think the two main interests of the US in all that are to weaken Russia as much as possible and to break the close relationship with China, with domino effects in Belarus and Kazakhstan (which would hit China's interests as well). So ideally they want a weak, Western-friendly regime. But that may be wishful thinking because that's not Russia's historical stance and interests. Whatever we think of Putin, his general aims are an independent, strong and powerful Russia that gains some of the ground lost, which are quite aligned with Russia's historical behaviour.
  - mc32 5y ago
    I think the US would prefer a strong but US-friendly Russia to counter other actors in the area. Strong does not mean expansionist. Trying to set-up regimes is mostly miss --we have quite a bit of experience in that area including Ukraine with the Orange revolution, KSA... and obviously many other places as well. Russia/the SU have an equal amount of experience but have had better results --served better (Cuba, Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc.)
    - mytailorisrich 5y ago
      I don't think strong and US-friendly is a realistic combination. Russian and American geo-political interests are not aligned, and a strong Russia would push for its own interests and power as they are doing now (though they may have overplayed their hand).
      - mc32 5y ago
        There is always a chance. Yeltsin was that --albeit he was the wrong buy to have there --an alcoholic who didn't care about any consequence to his country. But someone like Medvedev, who had a business focus, could have had potential to create some allyship --such as had existed prior to the WWs --with other European nations as well as the US.