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U.S. stunned by Poland's fighter jet offer

32 points by colinprince 5y ago

steve_gh 5y ago
By refusing the US is sending a message - they can change their minds if the Russians don't negotiate
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  Considering the speed and scale of sanctions against Russia, I am thinking that the US might actually be after 'regime change' in Russia. If so, is ending the war now the best option to reach that goal? In any case, it seems that everyone want to avoid escalation and being dragged into the military conflict.
  - jsmith45 5y ago
    The US wants Russia to stop trying to attack and annex its neighbors, including Ukraine. My understanding is that Putin can't stop the invasion of Ukraine without looking so weak that he is liable to be immediately pushed out of power (with a decent chance of the subsequent regime coming up with some reason to execute him, as he would remain a threat to the new regime). The result is that while the US does not necessarily want a Russian regime change per se (after all, who is to say that the next regime won't be worse), one is pretty much a practical requirement to archive what they do want.
    - mytailorisrich 5y ago
      I think the two main interests of the US in all that are to weaken Russia as much as possible and to break the close relationship with China, with domino effects in Belarus and Kazakhstan (which would hit China's interests as well). So ideally they want a weak, Western-friendly regime. But that may be wishful thinking because that's not Russia's historical stance and interests. Whatever we think of Putin, his general aims are an independent, strong and powerful Russia that gains some of the ground lost, which are quite aligned with Russia's historical behaviour.
      - mc32 5y ago
        I think the US would prefer a strong but US-friendly Russia to counter other actors in the area. Strong does not mean expansionist. Trying to set-up regimes is mostly miss --we have quite a bit of experience in that area including Ukraine with the Orange revolution, KSA... and obviously many other places as well. Russia/the SU have an equal amount of experience but have had better results --served better (Cuba, Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc.)
        mytailorisrich 5y ago
        I don't think strong and US-friendly is a realistic combination. Russian and American geo-political interests are not aligned, and a strong Russia would push for its own interests and power as they are doing now (though they may have overplayed their hand).
        mc32 5y ago
        There is always a chance. Yeltsin was that --albeit he was the wrong buy to have there --an alcoholic who didn't care about any consequence to his country. But someone like Medvedev, who had a business focus, could have had potential to create some allyship --such as had existed prior to the WWs --with other European nations as well as the US.
smackeyacky 5y ago
That is an interesting technical challenge for Poland - having to remove any NATO specific telecommunication gear before handing the jets over. Given they probably don't want to reveal what is "sensitive" (guessing encrypted radios and battle network stuff) the idea of trying to pull that gear and leave the Migs flyable by Ukraine might take months. Let alone the political and legal issues of transferring those planes. It's not like sending Spitfires overseas in a pine box any more.
- rosndo 5y ago
  I’ve not worked with fancy modern(ized). fighter jets, but if they’re anything like normal planes this stuff is probably not very hard to pull out. But the closest I’ve gotten to messing around with this stuff is my L39 (terrible idea, should’ve bought a boat instead. wife hates me now), which did indeed come with some soviet era kit screwed on. Came off easily enough after removing a couple of screws. I’d be surprised if the interesting parts of the radio equipment they’ve screwed onto the old MiGs would take much more than that to remove. Aviation authority approvals might take months, but I can’t imagine that being an issue for military planes like this.
  - wikidani 5y ago
    >my L39 please, tell me that there are pictures I can look. I love those little planes :D
  - gumby 5y ago
    I wouldn't be surprised if the NATO package was not just circuit modules but certain kinds of antennas, perhaps countermeasures that required modification of the chassis etc. And the original equipment might not be around. Just my uninformed speculation though.
  - WFHRenaissance 5y ago
    > wife hates me now The dawgs got your back though – I'd do it too, assuming it didn't thrust you into financial disaster. YOLO.
  - 5y ago
0xy 5y ago
zeruch 5y ago
It is a very unorthodox move by Poland, but possibly born of its own conservative, tough-guy leadership that wants to send its own message to its neighborhood that if Russia is feeling expansionist, Poland isn't going to sit idle. Since it is next to Belarus (an accomplice to Russia right now) this may be as much directed at them as it is Putin.
T-A 5y ago
The Polish proposal is so strange I find it hard to believe it's in good faith. Look at a map: Poland has a long common border with Western Ukraine, but instead it offers to fly the other way, to Ramstein, more than a thousand kilometers from Ukraine. Once the planes are in Ramstein, what do you do? Fly them back to Poland? That makes no sense, and according to the article, the idea is that "the Polish government would sidestep the logistical challenge of getting the jets over the border". That leaves the three other NATO countries bordering Ukraine: Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. But Hungary refuses to let lethal weapons transit its territory en route to Ukraine, so strike that. Slovakia shares only a short border with Ukraine - about 80 kilometers - and it's sandwiched between Poland and Hungary; too easy for Russia to watch. That leaves only Romania. How do you get there from NATO territory? Not through Hungary (see above), so you're left with a ridiculous roundabout route like Germany -> France -> Italy -> Greece -> Bulgaria -> Romania. Do they all agree to it? Why in particular would Romania be willing to tackle "the logistical challenge of getting the jets over the border" which Poland (and Hungary) won't touch with a bargepole?
- omega3 5y ago
  You're missing the point, it was never a logistical issue. Poland wanted to avoid giving the migs directly so they proposed that they would transfer the ownership to the US for the US to transfer to Ukraine. Even better if you mix all the planes from other NATO countries to lower the risk for any one particular country. The planes can then go to Ukraine from the US removing Poland from the deal.
  - T-A 5y ago
    > You're missing the point No, I'm underscoring it. > The planes can then go to Ukraine from the US How?
    - jimmygrapes 5y ago
      "you throw the rock" "no, you do it, I'd get wrecked if they knew it was me" "do it you pussy" "that's misogyn-" "THROW THE ROCKS"
omega3 5y ago
How can US be stunned if they've been discussing the MIG transfer for at least 7 days as has been reported. This is clearly a PR move that will only lower the trust in the US.
- water8 5y ago
  Poland wasn’t supposed to transfer them to the United States first because now it looks like the United States is directly giving them to Ukraine
  - surrealize 5y ago
    Poland and the US are both NATO. Somehow sending them from Poland is better? And we’re going to let concerns about how Russia would perceive the transfer dictate what we do? We’ve already sent a bunch of weapons into Ukraine. These jets are just another entry in that long list. We need to get this transfer done.
    - water8 5y ago
      The idea is that Poland is less of a threat to Russia than the US and less likely to trigger a large escalation that potentially confronting the US would mean. It's basically the equivalent of a pawn supporting a knight vs the queen supporting a knight
      - powerapple 5y ago
        Maybe the idea is that Poland is reachable by Russia, making it easier for skirmishes, to escalate the situation for Russia. Then US can say: look, I knew Russia wouldn't stop at Ukraine.
dirtyid 5y ago
My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR. This puts heat on Poland et al. Poland unceremoniously deflects by proposing (threatening) to transfer planes to US bases in Germany, a polite way of saying no-you. Either stops the pressure or in case of US/DE saying yes, Poland gets to trade in obsolete migs for discount/ first dibs on F16s without painting target on back.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR. No, the US has been fairly consistently negative to neutral on it; the strongest it's gotten for it is a positive signal that it won't oppose it if they choose to do it. (Which seems to be a recent policy change; the initial NATO opposition after the EU official tweeting the idea had to have at least involved consulting the US.)
  - dirtyid 5y ago
    US wouldnt have considered backfilling poland with f16s in 3 way trade deal a few days ago if they were merely neutral/negative. That reads as low key wink wink nudge nudge endorsement.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > US wouldnt have considered backfilling poland with f16s in 3 way trade deal a few days ago if they were merely neutral/negative. They would if they independently wanted Poland off of MiG-29s and more completely on a combination of F-35s and F-16s for the role (which, yes, they do.) > That reads as low key wink wink nudge nudge endorsement. Which is a lot different from pressure to do it.
      - dirtyid 5y ago
        Poland was pivoting away from RU hardware regardless, US offer to backfill to speed up already inevitable process makes no sense outside of endorsing/pushing through tranfer. >Which is a lot different from pressure to do it. Poland wouldn't have "stunned" US by offering transfers to US/DE custody otherwise, it's dick move political signal. Poland has been vocal about US pressure on PRC recently as well, wouldn't be surprising if US pressuring against RU as well.

32 points by colinprince 5y ago

steve_gh 5y ago

By refusing the US is sending a message - they can change their minds if the Russians don't negotiate

mytailorisrich 5y ago
Considering the speed and scale of sanctions against Russia, I am thinking that the US might actually be after 'regime change' in Russia. If so, is ending the war now the best option to reach that goal? In any case, it seems that everyone want to avoid escalation and being dragged into the military conflict.
- jsmith45 5y ago
  The US wants Russia to stop trying to attack and annex its neighbors, including Ukraine. My understanding is that Putin can't stop the invasion of Ukraine without looking so weak that he is liable to be immediately pushed out of power (with a decent chance of the subsequent regime coming up with some reason to execute him, as he would remain a threat to the new regime). The result is that while the US does not necessarily want a Russian regime change per se (after all, who is to say that the next regime won't be worse), one is pretty much a practical requirement to archive what they do want.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    I think the two main interests of the US in all that are to weaken Russia as much as possible and to break the close relationship with China, with domino effects in Belarus and Kazakhstan (which would hit China's interests as well). So ideally they want a weak, Western-friendly regime. But that may be wishful thinking because that's not Russia's historical stance and interests. Whatever we think of Putin, his general aims are an independent, strong and powerful Russia that gains some of the ground lost, which are quite aligned with Russia's historical behaviour.
    - mc32 5y ago
      I think the US would prefer a strong but US-friendly Russia to counter other actors in the area. Strong does not mean expansionist. Trying to set-up regimes is mostly miss --we have quite a bit of experience in that area including Ukraine with the Orange revolution, KSA... and obviously many other places as well. Russia/the SU have an equal amount of experience but have had better results --served better (Cuba, Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc.)
      - mytailorisrich 5y ago
        I don't think strong and US-friendly is a realistic combination. Russian and American geo-political interests are not aligned, and a strong Russia would push for its own interests and power as they are doing now (though they may have overplayed their hand).
        mc32 5y ago
        There is always a chance. Yeltsin was that --albeit he was the wrong buy to have there --an alcoholic who didn't care about any consequence to his country. But someone like Medvedev, who had a business focus, could have had potential to create some allyship --such as had existed prior to the WWs --with other European nations as well as the US.

smackeyacky 5y ago

That is an interesting technical challenge for Poland - having to remove any NATO specific telecommunication gear before handing the jets over. Given they probably don't want to reveal what is "sensitive" (guessing encrypted radios and battle network stuff) the idea of trying to pull that gear and leave the Migs flyable by Ukraine might take months. Let alone the political and legal issues of transferring those planes. It's not like sending Spitfires overseas in a pine box any more.

rosndo 5y ago
I’ve not worked with fancy modern(ized). fighter jets, but if they’re anything like normal planes this stuff is probably not very hard to pull out. But the closest I’ve gotten to messing around with this stuff is my L39 (terrible idea, should’ve bought a boat instead. wife hates me now), which did indeed come with some soviet era kit screwed on. Came off easily enough after removing a couple of screws. I’d be surprised if the interesting parts of the radio equipment they’ve screwed onto the old MiGs would take much more than that to remove. Aviation authority approvals might take months, but I can’t imagine that being an issue for military planes like this.
- wikidani 5y ago
  >my L39 please, tell me that there are pictures I can look. I love those little planes :D
- gumby 5y ago
  I wouldn't be surprised if the NATO package was not just circuit modules but certain kinds of antennas, perhaps countermeasures that required modification of the chassis etc. And the original equipment might not be around. Just my uninformed speculation though.
- WFHRenaissance 5y ago
  > wife hates me now The dawgs got your back though – I'd do it too, assuming it didn't thrust you into financial disaster. YOLO.
- 5y ago

0xy 5y ago

zeruch 5y ago

It is a very unorthodox move by Poland, but possibly born of its own conservative, tough-guy leadership that wants to send its own message to its neighborhood that if Russia is feeling expansionist, Poland isn't going to sit idle. Since it is next to Belarus (an accomplice to Russia right now) this may be as much directed at them as it is Putin.

T-A 5y ago

The Polish proposal is so strange I find it hard to believe it's in good faith. Look at a map: Poland has a long common border with Western Ukraine, but instead it offers to fly the other way, to Ramstein, more than a thousand kilometers from Ukraine. Once the planes are in Ramstein, what do you do? Fly them back to Poland? That makes no sense, and according to the article, the idea is that "the Polish government would sidestep the logistical challenge of getting the jets over the border". That leaves the three other NATO countries bordering Ukraine: Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. But Hungary refuses to let lethal weapons transit its territory en route to Ukraine, so strike that. Slovakia shares only a short border with Ukraine - about 80 kilometers - and it's sandwiched between Poland and Hungary; too easy for Russia to watch. That leaves only Romania. How do you get there from NATO territory? Not through Hungary (see above), so you're left with a ridiculous roundabout route like Germany -> France -> Italy -> Greece -> Bulgaria -> Romania. Do they all agree to it? Why in particular would Romania be willing to tackle "the logistical challenge of getting the jets over the border" which Poland (and Hungary) won't touch with a bargepole?

omega3 5y ago
You're missing the point, it was never a logistical issue. Poland wanted to avoid giving the migs directly so they proposed that they would transfer the ownership to the US for the US to transfer to Ukraine. Even better if you mix all the planes from other NATO countries to lower the risk for any one particular country. The planes can then go to Ukraine from the US removing Poland from the deal.
- T-A 5y ago
  > You're missing the point No, I'm underscoring it. > The planes can then go to Ukraine from the US How?
  - jimmygrapes 5y ago
    "you throw the rock" "no, you do it, I'd get wrecked if they knew it was me" "do it you pussy" "that's misogyn-" "THROW THE ROCKS"

omega3 5y ago

How can US be stunned if they've been discussing the MIG transfer for at least 7 days as has been reported. This is clearly a PR move that will only lower the trust in the US.

water8 5y ago
Poland wasn’t supposed to transfer them to the United States first because now it looks like the United States is directly giving them to Ukraine
- surrealize 5y ago
  Poland and the US are both NATO. Somehow sending them from Poland is better? And we’re going to let concerns about how Russia would perceive the transfer dictate what we do? We’ve already sent a bunch of weapons into Ukraine. These jets are just another entry in that long list. We need to get this transfer done.
  - water8 5y ago
    The idea is that Poland is less of a threat to Russia than the US and less likely to trigger a large escalation that potentially confronting the US would mean. It's basically the equivalent of a pawn supporting a knight vs the queen supporting a knight
    - powerapple 5y ago
      Maybe the idea is that Poland is reachable by Russia, making it easier for skirmishes, to escalate the situation for Russia. Then US can say: look, I knew Russia wouldn't stop at Ukraine.

dirtyid 5y ago

My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR. This puts heat on Poland et al. Poland unceremoniously deflects by proposing (threatening) to transfer planes to US bases in Germany, a polite way of saying no-you. Either stops the pressure or in case of US/DE saying yes, Poland gets to trade in obsolete migs for discount/ first dibs on F16s without painting target on back.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> My understanding of planes for Ukraine drama: US pressuring Poland and other eastern bloc countries to direct transfer planes to UKR. No, the US has been fairly consistently negative to neutral on it; the strongest it's gotten for it is a positive signal that it won't oppose it if they choose to do it. (Which seems to be a recent policy change; the initial NATO opposition after the EU official tweeting the idea had to have at least involved consulting the US.)
- dirtyid 5y ago
  US wouldnt have considered backfilling poland with f16s in 3 way trade deal a few days ago if they were merely neutral/negative. That reads as low key wink wink nudge nudge endorsement.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > US wouldnt have considered backfilling poland with f16s in 3 way trade deal a few days ago if they were merely neutral/negative. They would if they independently wanted Poland off of MiG-29s and more completely on a combination of F-35s and F-16s for the role (which, yes, they do.) > That reads as low key wink wink nudge nudge endorsement. Which is a lot different from pressure to do it.
    - dirtyid 5y ago
      Poland was pivoting away from RU hardware regardless, US offer to backfill to speed up already inevitable process makes no sense outside of endorsing/pushing through tranfer. >Which is a lot different from pressure to do it. Poland wouldn't have "stunned" US by offering transfers to US/DE custody otherwise, it's dick move political signal. Poland has been vocal about US pressure on PRC recently as well, wouldn't be surprising if US pressuring against RU as well.