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Well, clearly there are some promising avenues. For example, developing alternatives to fossil fuels would weaken adventurous petro-dictatorships. It's not a

Well, clearly there are some promising avenues. For example, developing alternatives to fossil fuels would weaken adventurous petro-dictatorships. It's not a short term proposition, but it's something that ought to be taken into account when e.g. considering how governments allocate subsidies or weigh long-term energy strategies (as Germany is doing now). Any initiative that strengthens the global market for oil and gas has a side effect of destabilizing the rules-based world order.

zdragnar 5y ago
Unfortunately, adventurous dictators also control much of the worlds currently accessible supply of rare-ish minerals and elements that go into batteries and powerful magnets. It's not a bad idea to do it regardless, but you're just trading bad for bad if your primary reason for doing so is to avoid naughty governments.
- rectang 5y ago
  Oil and rare minerals are separate revenue streams. Let's say that a given dictator's petro-adventurism is 50% funded by oil and 20% funded by rare minerals. If you can degrade their ability to wage war by reducing one or the other, why is that "bad"? I'm curious — do you prefer e.g. the Chinese governance model over the democratic model? I'm getting the feeling you believe that autocracy is inevitable and unstoppable, and I wonder if you believe that that fate is also desirable.
  - zdragnar 5y ago
    Not at all! I am merely not of the opinion that economic sanctions are reliable or effective deterrents to authoritarianism. The cases where they have been demonstrably effective are comparatively few, and the geopolitical circumstances are substantially different in those than now with Russia invading Ukraine. Pretending that massively investing in solar, wind and EVs will absolve us of dependency on autocratic regimes is just intellectually dishonest- we are merely trading one for another. For the record, I do support temporarily ceasing the purchase of oil from Russia. Buying more oil from Venezuela, Iran or Saudi Arabia is not a long term answer, or rare earth metals from China (who is notably not participating in sanctions). Though Russia has yet to ramp up production, they will also become a key player in a post-fossil-fuel world as they are thought to have a full quarter of the accessible supply.

zdragnar 5y ago

Unfortunately, adventurous dictators also control much of the worlds currently accessible supply of rare-ish minerals and elements that go into batteries and powerful magnets. It's not a bad idea to do it regardless, but you're just trading bad for bad if your primary reason for doing so is to avoid naughty governments.

rectang 5y ago
Oil and rare minerals are separate revenue streams. Let's say that a given dictator's petro-adventurism is 50% funded by oil and 20% funded by rare minerals. If you can degrade their ability to wage war by reducing one or the other, why is that "bad"? I'm curious — do you prefer e.g. the Chinese governance model over the democratic model? I'm getting the feeling you believe that autocracy is inevitable and unstoppable, and I wonder if you believe that that fate is also desirable.
- zdragnar 5y ago
  Not at all! I am merely not of the opinion that economic sanctions are reliable or effective deterrents to authoritarianism. The cases where they have been demonstrably effective are comparatively few, and the geopolitical circumstances are substantially different in those than now with Russia invading Ukraine. Pretending that massively investing in solar, wind and EVs will absolve us of dependency on autocratic regimes is just intellectually dishonest- we are merely trading one for another. For the record, I do support temporarily ceasing the purchase of oil from Russia. Buying more oil from Venezuela, Iran or Saudi Arabia is not a long term answer, or rare earth metals from China (who is notably not participating in sanctions). Though Russia has yet to ramp up production, they will also become a key player in a post-fossil-fuel world as they are thought to have a full quarter of the accessible supply.