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I think the answers to your question revolve around Russia ending up being an economically linked vassal state of China, China/India/Russia becoming an economic

I think the answers to your question revolve around Russia ending up being an economically linked vassal state of China, China/India/Russia becoming an economic block, and a desire to not use the US dollar as a reserve currency. Personally, I think Putin is screwing over his own people almost as badly as people in Ukraine - in the long run. Ukraine will get a lot of love from the west, when the fighting is over.

paganel 5y ago
A pivot to Asia is what Russia actually needs (and needed, even before the war), Europe is a stagnating continent with a stagnating economy. I venture to say that in the long run this will benefit Russia (if they manage to remain in one piece, that is), because the growth can only come from there, i.e. from Asia. You're mentioning China/India/Russia like they might be some minions, but taken together they have a population of about 3 billion people (out of ~8 billion the Earth now has) and a giant land surface (thanks to Russia, mostly). Probably the Western US and Canada will also get dragged into this, economically speaking, for its own benefit. What was the correct decision for Obama and its foreign policy advisers (they were the first ones to brand the "pivot to Asia" thing) in the early 2010s is also the right decision to take for today's Russia.
- phicoh 5y ago
  This seems like a weird argument. Russia was in a great position selling natural gas to Europe. Alternatives to Russian gas are quite a bit more expensive, so they were getting a good price. Russia could afford to limit exports to China. Without exports to Europa, Russia would be completely at the mercy of China. Russia only has a tiny economy compared to China, so if China decides to play games, there is not much Russia can do. Given China's recent behavior, it is extremely likely that Russia will get deals to mainly benefit China.
  - paganel 5y ago
    Selling only natural gas, even at very expensive prices, doesn't get you anywhere, long term, Putin knows as much that's why in the last few years Russia tried to make a conscious effort not to depend on oil and gas as an economy anymore (if I'm not mistaken the share of oil&gas in the Russian economy has gone down from about 14% to about 8-9% in the last few years, I'm too lazy to search for the exact Economist article where I had read that). > Russia only has a tiny economy compared to China, so if China decides to play games, From Putin's perspective, or whomever will take his place, it's better to be at China's mercy compared to being at the West's mercy (as present economic sanctions demonstrate it was the case), as in China and Russia are a lot more close, ideologically speaking, compared with how Russia and the West compare. And Russia still has and will have nukes, there's no way for China to take some piece of Russia's Far East (which I know you didn't mention but is a point often made when it comes to the Russia-China relation).

paganel 5y ago

A pivot to Asia is what Russia actually needs (and needed, even before the war), Europe is a stagnating continent with a stagnating economy. I venture to say that in the long run this will benefit Russia (if they manage to remain in one piece, that is), because the growth can only come from there, i.e. from Asia. You're mentioning China/India/Russia like they might be some minions, but taken together they have a population of about 3 billion people (out of ~8 billion the Earth now has) and a giant land surface (thanks to Russia, mostly). Probably the Western US and Canada will also get dragged into this, economically speaking, for its own benefit. What was the correct decision for Obama and its foreign policy advisers (they were the first ones to brand the "pivot to Asia" thing) in the early 2010s is also the right decision to take for today's Russia.

phicoh 5y ago
This seems like a weird argument. Russia was in a great position selling natural gas to Europe. Alternatives to Russian gas are quite a bit more expensive, so they were getting a good price. Russia could afford to limit exports to China. Without exports to Europa, Russia would be completely at the mercy of China. Russia only has a tiny economy compared to China, so if China decides to play games, there is not much Russia can do. Given China's recent behavior, it is extremely likely that Russia will get deals to mainly benefit China.
- paganel 5y ago
  Selling only natural gas, even at very expensive prices, doesn't get you anywhere, long term, Putin knows as much that's why in the last few years Russia tried to make a conscious effort not to depend on oil and gas as an economy anymore (if I'm not mistaken the share of oil&gas in the Russian economy has gone down from about 14% to about 8-9% in the last few years, I'm too lazy to search for the exact Economist article where I had read that). > Russia only has a tiny economy compared to China, so if China decides to play games, From Putin's perspective, or whomever will take his place, it's better to be at China's mercy compared to being at the West's mercy (as present economic sanctions demonstrate it was the case), as in China and Russia are a lot more close, ideologically speaking, compared with how Russia and the West compare. And Russia still has and will have nukes, there's no way for China to take some piece of Russia's Far East (which I know you didn't mention but is a point often made when it comes to the Russia-China relation).