5 ms·

What's not to understand? Russia is doing the pre-production research of how China will need to protect their economy when they put their military in Taiwan.

tablespoon 5y ago
> What's not to understand? Russia is doing the pre-production research of how China will need to protect their economy when they put their military in Taiwan. China will not get sanctioned like Russia has. The world's dependence on Chinese manufacturing is like Europe's dependence on Russian gas, times ten. Or, more precisely, it will get sanctioned like Russia has, but like the Russian sanctions, they will include exceptions for everything the West needs to buy from China, which is nearly everything.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > China will not get sanctioned like Russia has Nobody thought Russia would get sanctioned like Russia has.
  - pjerem 5y ago
    Well, I read your comment, I look around me, I see no item that is not "Made in China". There is no way China gets sanctioned for barely anything without years (decades ?) of re-industrialization of the west. Well, at some point, I even think that China could make the entire west civilization collapse just by stopping their exportation.
    - aaronblohowiak 5y ago
      For consumer goods, sure. But much of that is not what makes up the entire west civilization, imho
      - pjerem 5y ago
        A lot of people in the west couldn't potentially afford a single modern computer or a smartphone without any piece from China. At least it would push us to take reusing more seriously. Brutal decoupling from China could be really, probably extremely hard, but in a lot of aspects, intellectually interesting to watch. How Europe will react to adapt the current crisis regarding fossils will also be really interesting. I'm just hoping that it will accelerate the de-carbonation of our energy sources. But it's just that, hopes.
    - dylan604 5y ago
      >I even think that China could make the entire west civilization collapse just by stopping their exportation. Then the West retaliates by stopping their export to China of even more basic things like food. I'm guessing China needs food imports much more than the West needs cheap plastic wares, knock off products, and other less critical than food things.
- snek_case 5y ago
  My understanding is some manufacturing is already moving away from China. If China invades Taiwan, the West won't be able to sanction them as quickly and as intensely, but it can accelerate the move to take its business elsewhere... Which it will have to do, because most of the world's most advanced chips come from TSMC, and if that's controlled by China, it's just dangerous.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - randcraw 5y ago
    Agreed. Now that the world is riveted by Russia's mad rush to pariahhood, this is an insanely bad time for anyone to jump on Russia's bandwagon. Apparently China has yet to learn that by showing wanton disrespect now for the most basic of international civil rights, you terrify and alienate your customer base. Barbarism is very bad business, and will surely haunt both the actors and their cheerleaders for a looong time to come.
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  It’s infuriating that the west allows itself to remain dependent on a dictatorship.
  - birdyrooster 5y ago
    We stopped letting them manufacture anything of strategic military or government significance. We are mostly dependent on them for basic household goods and consumer electronics. Those things could be cut back significantly without destroying our own economy. Keep in mind that China can't feed itself without the world. That is a much more dangerous dependence.
    - frankharv 5y ago
      You are correct. The "Buy American Act" has some good features. We recently had to buy Anchor Chain for a gov vessel refirb and it literally took an act of congress to override and buy Chinese anchor chain. There is no one in USA who could provide it in a timely fashion. 52 week lead time is unsat. China will trade Russia for wheat due to bad harvests. We are driving Russia into Chinese hands with currency and transactions. Too bad they have an dictator for life. He gambled and lost.
      - plussed_reader 5y ago
        Russia effectively becomes a vassal state of the Chinese economy; wonder how they will re-tool the Xinjiang re-education for the Tibetski 2.0?
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > We stopped letting them manufacture anything of strategic military or government significance. We are mostly dependent on them for basic household goods and consumer electronics. Those things could be cut back significantly without destroying our own economy. That dependence still creates a significant political risk, which the West is in a poorer position to manage. > Keep in mind that China can't feed itself without the world. That is a much more dangerous dependence. That would be a serious vulnerability, except the world probably isn't united enough for it to matter. For instance, my understanding is Russia is a major food exporter. Add in a conquered Ukraine and maybe a couple other countries and you might fill that gap.
- birdyrooster 5y ago
  We wouldn't need to sanction them like Russia, they are much closer to a debt crisis and need growth to maintain it.
- sidibe 5y ago
  I think it would take less sanctions to send Chinese to the streets, so China would be more likely to try not to get sanctioned. We see locally they vent fury over economic issues quite often despite much more locked down media and a generally better looking economy than Russia. People in China are fine with the government as long as the economy is good, not sure how they would react to the government getting sanctioned to a degree that makes their lives worse
  - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
    Hard to say. Patriotism/national chauvinism is one hell of a drug, and one in copious supply in times of armed conflict.
  - t-3 5y ago
    If the sanction feels like an attack, it will only rally people, IMO. By all accounts, China isn't like the US where we mock blind nationalism all the time, they are very nationalistic and patriotic.
- long_time_gone 5y ago
  > The world's dependence on Chinese manufacturing is like Europe's dependence on Russian gas, times ten. This assumes that we won't make moves to mitigate this dependence in response to Russia's invasion. The US Innovation and Competition Act [1] likely has a much higher chance of passing today than it did prior to Russia's invasion. It calls for $250 billion investment in high tech manufacturing [2]. It has passed the Senate and is currently waiting in the House. I wouldn't be surprised to see the bill grow in scope. [1] https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1260 https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/126... [2] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-bipartisan-bill-boost-tech-competitiveness-china-n1270079 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-bipa...
- BeefWellington 5y ago
  This cuts both ways though, China is dependent on foreign agriculture[1], which Russia cannot provide them right now (certainly it will be hard to farm in Ukraine during an active conflict). Particularly for things like pork.[2] Stopping the flow of just pork products to China may result in enormous unrest and it certainly wouldn't be a given that the CCP would be capable of quelling that. [1]: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-evolving-demand-world-s-largest-agricultural-import-market https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-evolving-demand-world-s-... [2]: https://www.worldstopexports.com/international-markets-for-imported-pork-by-country/ https://www.worldstopexports.com/international-markets-for-i...

tablespoon 5y ago

> What's not to understand? Russia is doing the pre-production research of how China will need to protect their economy when they put their military in Taiwan. China will not get sanctioned like Russia has. The world's dependence on Chinese manufacturing is like Europe's dependence on Russian gas, times ten. Or, more precisely, it will get sanctioned like Russia has, but like the Russian sanctions, they will include exceptions for everything the West needs to buy from China, which is nearly everything.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> China will not get sanctioned like Russia has Nobody thought Russia would get sanctioned like Russia has.
- pjerem 5y ago
  Well, I read your comment, I look around me, I see no item that is not "Made in China". There is no way China gets sanctioned for barely anything without years (decades ?) of re-industrialization of the west. Well, at some point, I even think that China could make the entire west civilization collapse just by stopping their exportation.
  - aaronblohowiak 5y ago
    For consumer goods, sure. But much of that is not what makes up the entire west civilization, imho
    - pjerem 5y ago
      A lot of people in the west couldn't potentially afford a single modern computer or a smartphone without any piece from China. At least it would push us to take reusing more seriously. Brutal decoupling from China could be really, probably extremely hard, but in a lot of aspects, intellectually interesting to watch. How Europe will react to adapt the current crisis regarding fossils will also be really interesting. I'm just hoping that it will accelerate the de-carbonation of our energy sources. But it's just that, hopes.
  - dylan604 5y ago
    >I even think that China could make the entire west civilization collapse just by stopping their exportation. Then the West retaliates by stopping their export to China of even more basic things like food. I'm guessing China needs food imports much more than the West needs cheap plastic wares, knock off products, and other less critical than food things.
snek_case 5y ago
My understanding is some manufacturing is already moving away from China. If China invades Taiwan, the West won't be able to sanction them as quickly and as intensely, but it can accelerate the move to take its business elsewhere... Which it will have to do, because most of the world's most advanced chips come from TSMC, and if that's controlled by China, it's just dangerous.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- randcraw 5y ago
  Agreed. Now that the world is riveted by Russia's mad rush to pariahhood, this is an insanely bad time for anyone to jump on Russia's bandwagon. Apparently China has yet to learn that by showing wanton disrespect now for the most basic of international civil rights, you terrify and alienate your customer base. Barbarism is very bad business, and will surely haunt both the actors and their cheerleaders for a looong time to come.
throwaway894345 5y ago
It’s infuriating that the west allows itself to remain dependent on a dictatorship.
- birdyrooster 5y ago
  We stopped letting them manufacture anything of strategic military or government significance. We are mostly dependent on them for basic household goods and consumer electronics. Those things could be cut back significantly without destroying our own economy. Keep in mind that China can't feed itself without the world. That is a much more dangerous dependence.
  - frankharv 5y ago
    You are correct. The "Buy American Act" has some good features. We recently had to buy Anchor Chain for a gov vessel refirb and it literally took an act of congress to override and buy Chinese anchor chain. There is no one in USA who could provide it in a timely fashion. 52 week lead time is unsat. China will trade Russia for wheat due to bad harvests. We are driving Russia into Chinese hands with currency and transactions. Too bad they have an dictator for life. He gambled and lost.
    - plussed_reader 5y ago
      Russia effectively becomes a vassal state of the Chinese economy; wonder how they will re-tool the Xinjiang re-education for the Tibetski 2.0?
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > We stopped letting them manufacture anything of strategic military or government significance. We are mostly dependent on them for basic household goods and consumer electronics. Those things could be cut back significantly without destroying our own economy. That dependence still creates a significant political risk, which the West is in a poorer position to manage. > Keep in mind that China can't feed itself without the world. That is a much more dangerous dependence. That would be a serious vulnerability, except the world probably isn't united enough for it to matter. For instance, my understanding is Russia is a major food exporter. Add in a conquered Ukraine and maybe a couple other countries and you might fill that gap.
birdyrooster 5y ago
We wouldn't need to sanction them like Russia, they are much closer to a debt crisis and need growth to maintain it.
sidibe 5y ago
I think it would take less sanctions to send Chinese to the streets, so China would be more likely to try not to get sanctioned. We see locally they vent fury over economic issues quite often despite much more locked down media and a generally better looking economy than Russia. People in China are fine with the government as long as the economy is good, not sure how they would react to the government getting sanctioned to a degree that makes their lives worse
- cmrdporcupine 5y ago
  Hard to say. Patriotism/national chauvinism is one hell of a drug, and one in copious supply in times of armed conflict.
- t-3 5y ago
  If the sanction feels like an attack, it will only rally people, IMO. By all accounts, China isn't like the US where we mock blind nationalism all the time, they are very nationalistic and patriotic.
long_time_gone 5y ago
> The world's dependence on Chinese manufacturing is like Europe's dependence on Russian gas, times ten. This assumes that we won't make moves to mitigate this dependence in response to Russia's invasion. The US Innovation and Competition Act [1] likely has a much higher chance of passing today than it did prior to Russia's invasion. It calls for $250 billion investment in high tech manufacturing [2]. It has passed the Senate and is currently waiting in the House. I wouldn't be surprised to see the bill grow in scope. [1] https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1260 https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/126... [2] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-bipartisan-bill-boost-tech-competitiveness-china-n1270079 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-bipa...
BeefWellington 5y ago
This cuts both ways though, China is dependent on foreign agriculture[1], which Russia cannot provide them right now (certainly it will be hard to farm in Ukraine during an active conflict). Particularly for things like pork.[2] Stopping the flow of just pork products to China may result in enormous unrest and it certainly wouldn't be a given that the CCP would be capable of quelling that. [1]: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-evolving-demand-world-s-largest-agricultural-import-market https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-evolving-demand-world-s-... [2]: https://www.worldstopexports.com/international-markets-for-imported-pork-by-country/ https://www.worldstopexports.com/international-markets-for-i...