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I don’t know why China is so keen on helping Russia. Is this some kind of godfather deal and they want some massive ROI from Russia once things settle down a bi

I don’t know why China is so keen on helping Russia. Is this some kind of godfather deal and they want some massive ROI from Russia once things settle down a bit? Or is this some long-term strategy “against the West”?

linspace 5y ago
Me neither, I think the war is bad for their interests. On the other hand Putin falling may be bad for their interests too.
null_object 5y ago
I think both are possible - but if they continue destabilizing the West, who’s gonna be buying their shoddily made consumer crap?
- Ygg2 5y ago
  In that case, I'm sure China would support the West, with loans. With generous interest rate for China.
throwmeariver1 5y ago
A weakened Russia is the best thing that can happen for China and India if they get Russia to completely cut from the west. Russia and the vast amount of natural resources are at their disposal at a really low prize.
- tartoran 5y ago
  But buying ads to push their narrative does not make Russia weaker. Not doing anything does
  - oneorangeday 5y ago
    But it does create a divide in our politics and with elections coming up we may see some support for Russia from one or more politicians.
Sol- 5y ago
It's win-win for them, no? A weak Russia isolated from the west means cheap resources for China. And the West focusing on the conflict and spending resources in Europe draws attention away from China in Asia. Seems like it's their interest to keep both parties in a drawn out conflict. Though perhaps they have to balance it with how it affects the world economy.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > win-win for them, no? No. Taiwan is seeing a massive increase in morale and defense interest [1]. The West has unified in a way not seen since World War II. If Xi sides with the baddies, he risks the stink rubbing off on him. [1] https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/in-taiwan-putins-war-in-ukraine-stirs-new-interest-in-self-defense-11646402103 https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/in-taiwan-putins-war-in-ukr...
  - RNAlfons 5y ago
    I don't think China could do anything about the attack itself (besides pushing it back into the mud...). This way the Taiwan development isn't anything they could change. It will wear off though and doesn't really change anything about the whole situation. In return they get to see what the West will do and what they'd do if China would to attack Taiwan. They get the cheap resources OP mentioned above, they get another country which depends on them and posting some Ads on Facebook won't hurt them. It's not like somebody would sanction them because of it. Realistically seen, they'll be able to get away with much more and I'm sure they'll test that in the weeks to come. I can't imagine "the West" sanctioning both a huge source for oil and gas AND a source for cheap manufactured goods and they know it too...
    - edgyquant 5y ago
      I don’t know how many times this has to be said, but the situations with Taiwan and Ukraine are in no way similar. The US has no formal alliance, or guarantees, with Ukraine. The US not rushing to defend them is not proof they won’t defend Taiwan (for one thing Taiwan is vital to the American military as a chip manufacturer.)
5e92cb50239222b 5y ago
Russia has nowhere else to go now that western markets are closed to them. China will be able to buy natural gas and oil nearly at cost because nobody else is willing to buy them, and gets to dictate the prices it's willing to pay. It also gets a large market for the products of its industry with close to zero competition. At least that's the general feeling among Russian economists whom I've been reading lately.
- saiya-jin 5y ago
  Not so sure about that market part... its 160 million of mostly poor folks who are becoming massively more poor as we write here. That's not so lucrative market compared to ie Europe with 500+ million wealthier citizens. But yeah Chinese cheap stuff will not have much competition.
  - jessaustin 5y ago
    China can trade with Russia as much as it wants. Ukraine might sanction them, but no one else is going to cut off China.
    - _ph_ 5y ago
      The point in the previous comment was, that there is little China can get from a trade with Russia other than natural resources. Russia is quickly running out of foreign money. While the West cannot "cut off" China as too much manufacturing has moved there, supporting Russia in this already has an impact on the reception of Chinese brands in the West. Perhaps less so in the US, but so far Chinese brands are quite popular in the EU. This could change quickly. Also this encourages to reduce the dependencies on China.
      - jessaustin 5y ago
        As a populous nation whose economy is based primarily on manufacturing, natural resources is the main thing that China would want to obtain from any other nation, particularly one with whom it shares the sixth-longest international border.
f38zf5vdt 5y ago
China and Russia have been classically opposed and clashing forces since the 1800s, even under dual-communist regimes. It was so bad in the 1960s that the Soviets wanted to engage in pre-emptive nuclear war with China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split Making Russia completely dependent on China economically will put a leash on Russia, effectively establishing it as a Chinese protectorate much like the Li–Lobanov Treaty made China a Russian protectorate.
plussed_reader 5y ago
What's not to understand? Russia is doing the pre-production research of how China will need to protect their economy when they put their military in Taiwan.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > What's not to understand? Russia is doing the pre-production research of how China will need to protect their economy when they put their military in Taiwan. China will not get sanctioned like Russia has. The world's dependence on Chinese manufacturing is like Europe's dependence on Russian gas, times ten. Or, more precisely, it will get sanctioned like Russia has, but like the Russian sanctions, they will include exceptions for everything the West needs to buy from China, which is nearly everything.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > China will not get sanctioned like Russia has Nobody thought Russia would get sanctioned like Russia has.
    - pjerem 5y ago
      Well, I read your comment, I look around me, I see no item that is not "Made in China". There is no way China gets sanctioned for barely anything without years (decades ?) of re-industrialization of the west. Well, at some point, I even think that China could make the entire west civilization collapse just by stopping their exportation.
      - aaronblohowiak 5y ago
        For consumer goods, sure. But much of that is not what makes up the entire west civilization, imho
        pjerem 5y ago
        A lot of people in the west couldn't potentially afford a single modern computer or a smartphone without any piece from China. At least it would push us to take reusing more seriously. Brutal decoupling from China could be really, probably extremely hard, but in a lot of aspects, intellectually interesting to watch. How Europe will react to adapt the current crisis regarding fossils will also be really interesting. I'm just hoping that it will accelerate the de-carbonation of our energy sources. But it's just that, hopes.
tablespoon 5y ago
> Or is this some long-term strategy “against the West”? This. Both Xi and Putin chafe against the liberal order and see it as something in decline that stands in the way of their own goals.
thereddaikon 5y ago
All of those things but also, supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine is internally consistent with their views on Taiwan. They cannot denounce Russian aggression on Ukraine but still openly claim Taiwan.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- robert_foss 5y ago
  I'm pretty sure China recognized Ukraine as an independent country until very recently.
  - YPPH 5y ago
    No foreign policy expert but it seems more complicated than that. China still does recognise Ukraine as independent in the sense it continues to push for respect of "territorial integrity". It's a key part of Chinese foreign policy, and is what China uses to maintain its false claim over Taiwan (which it sees as Beijing territory, notwithstanding that Taiwanese people see themselves as independent). Yet it still refuses to condemn Russian aggression on the basis that Russia has "security concerns" which China considers legitimate and the result of the US/NATO. Confused? So am I. The stance is confused and confusing. It explains why the Beijing narrative seems to change daily as it attempts to push and balance these seemingly irreconcilable views.
    - wbsss4412 5y ago
      > notwithstanding that Taiwanese people see themselves as independent. It isn’t that cut and dry. Most Taiwanese people prefer the status quo, surely by no small measure due to the fact that an outright declaration of independence would provoke China, but still, people who paint the picture as black and white like you have are either advancing an agenda or simply ignorant of the facts on the ground in Taiwan.
      - stale2002 5y ago
Ourgon 5y ago
China needs oil, minerals, wood and food. Russia has all of these so a good relationship to Russia is a guarantee for access to those things. A weakened Russia might even need "assistance" to keep Siberia - where all those mentioned things are found - safe.
- mellavora 5y ago
  sounds like settlers of catan. What about fish?
  - Ourgon 5y ago
    China has access to the world's oceans and as such is not in dire need of fishing grounds.
inglor_cz 5y ago
They want to turn Russia into their client state.
mark_l_watson 5y ago
I think the answers to your question revolve around Russia ending up being an economically linked vassal state of China, China/India/Russia becoming an economic block, and a desire to not use the US dollar as a reserve currency. Personally, I think Putin is screwing over his own people almost as badly as people in Ukraine - in the long run. Ukraine will get a lot of love from the west, when the fighting is over.
- paganel 5y ago
  A pivot to Asia is what Russia actually needs (and needed, even before the war), Europe is a stagnating continent with a stagnating economy. I venture to say that in the long run this will benefit Russia (if they manage to remain in one piece, that is), because the growth can only come from there, i.e. from Asia. You're mentioning China/India/Russia like they might be some minions, but taken together they have a population of about 3 billion people (out of ~8 billion the Earth now has) and a giant land surface (thanks to Russia, mostly). Probably the Western US and Canada will also get dragged into this, economically speaking, for its own benefit. What was the correct decision for Obama and its foreign policy advisers (they were the first ones to brand the "pivot to Asia" thing) in the early 2010s is also the right decision to take for today's Russia.
  - phicoh 5y ago
    This seems like a weird argument. Russia was in a great position selling natural gas to Europe. Alternatives to Russian gas are quite a bit more expensive, so they were getting a good price. Russia could afford to limit exports to China. Without exports to Europa, Russia would be completely at the mercy of China. Russia only has a tiny economy compared to China, so if China decides to play games, there is not much Russia can do. Given China's recent behavior, it is extremely likely that Russia will get deals to mainly benefit China.
    - paganel 5y ago
      Selling only natural gas, even at very expensive prices, doesn't get you anywhere, long term, Putin knows as much that's why in the last few years Russia tried to make a conscious effort not to depend on oil and gas as an economy anymore (if I'm not mistaken the share of oil&gas in the Russian economy has gone down from about 14% to about 8-9% in the last few years, I'm too lazy to search for the exact Economist article where I had read that). > Russia only has a tiny economy compared to China, so if China decides to play games, From Putin's perspective, or whomever will take his place, it's better to be at China's mercy compared to being at the West's mercy (as present economic sanctions demonstrate it was the case), as in China and Russia are a lot more close, ideologically speaking, compared with how Russia and the West compare. And Russia still has and will have nukes, there's no way for China to take some piece of Russia's Far East (which I know you didn't mention but is a point often made when it comes to the Russia-China relation).
kstenerud 5y ago
Anti-NATO sentiment has become pivotal to China's future and the new world order since recent events have pushed most of the world into America's corner (which hurts China). Now they're basically compensating for Russia's mess (and won't ever let them forget that).
- ashwagary 5y ago
  Anti-NATO (countries) sentiment has existed since those countries invaded and looted China (and many other countries) 200 years ago. This sentiment exists in much of the world but has economic consequences that most countries cannot bare.
  - t-3 5y ago
    Exactly. I think many also forget that Russia is not a traditional enemy of the rest of the world the same way it is to US/EU/Japan. The Cold War vibe in the US right now is like being a kid in the 90s hearing the military guys go apoplectic about "commies" anytime Russia comes up.
pm90 5y ago
The Trade war that Trump started is still ongoing if you haven’t noticed https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_....
- cmrdporcupine 5y ago
  The trade war was inevitable. Trump only made it crude, jingoistic, and America-centric rather than getting a hemispheric alliance. He alienated his closest trading partners (Europe but Canada especially) while simultaneously undermining the trade relationship with China. He was a blundering fool and his weakness contributed directly to the current situation in Ukraine, who he was willing to throw under the bus. I think "the west" (if we can speak of that still, though maybe we can even more after this latest crisis in Ukraine) will likely need an internally coherent trading bloc to counteract the situation in the east. That probably means a radical shift away from the China-Pacific trade push of the last 20-30 years and back towards a north-south and transatlantic route. My own country, Canada used to be a net food exporter, but now is a net importer, with large quantities of produce coming from China. It's going to have to change. Billions have been spent trying (and mostly failing) to build pipelines to Pacific tidewater to export Canadian oil and gas (LNG) to China. We should have been sending it east. Germany could do with copious amounts of LNG right now, and the US and Canada could be providing it, but the planning wasn't there. I can only hope the current crisis accelerates decarbonization in response -- but I fear the opposite will happen. All the "green energy" stocks I own are down, while oil and gas is up.
cmrdporcupine 5y ago
Two things. a) Putin's actions in Ukraine (and who knows where else) have ideological justifications similar to China's justifications of their actions in Xinjiang and Tibet. But also, the lines used by both regimes bear aesthetic resemblance to "anti-colonialist" and "anti-imperialist" narratives propagated by both the Stalinist and Maoist regimes in the past. Lots of "we're counteracting western aggression" [somewhat questionable here, Russia has never been under explicit military threat in this century] and "but the west does it too" [whataboutism, a diversion tactic] They were hypocritical arguments back in the Soviet era, with the way the Soviets treated Poland or Afghanistan, etc. but are way more threadbare now, hollowed of any "substance" at all. So I don't know how much of what is going on in China in regards to this is actually based on any geo-political strategy or how much of it is just reflexive fall-back to classic Maoist views of the west, a position against western imperialism. Like, we want to see some global strategy here, but it's also quite likely that the people at the heads of these regimes are much more incompetent than we give them credit for, and playing a game infused with ideological grudges which are only partially understood in the west. Clearly what is long-term good for China is continued peaceful trade with the west. Yes, there's tension around the basis of that, and how it is formulated. And "the west" certainly has its own aggressive colonialist and imperialist dominance which China feels compelled to counteract. But it seems to me there is no reason for China to toss the table over and stir up this level of chaos. It feels extremely ideological. Putin's rambling speech before the invasion -- justifying it -- referenced old debates within the Soviet past... he directly referenced and attacked Lenin and Lenin's positions (and Trotsky's -- a Ukrainian Jew) on the "national question" and national self-determination. Essentially from his POV Ukraine "only existed" because of the early Bolshevik positions on ethnicities etc. Classical Leninism, pre-Stalin, was concerned with granting federal independence to various Soviet ethnicities, to explicitly take apart Tsarist imperialism, and establish what they saw as a socialist federalism and this went along with an internationalist focus as well, as they hoped their revolution would spread to the west (and it did, sort of, in Germany and Hungary, but fizzled out.) After the failure of revolution in the west, and after Lenin died, Stalin came to power, brutally purged most of the old Bolsheviks, and instituted a kind of revanchist policy and restored major aspects of the old Tsarist pre-revolutionary Russian bureaucracy and internal policies. He paid some lip service to Lenin's position on the national question but basically committed internal genocide (and forced relocations) on various minority populations in the USSR, and was responsible for millions of deaths in Ukraine. Sort of ironic given he himself was of a minority ethnicity (Georgian) origin. Anyways, in Putin's speech he said explicitly that Lenin's position on national self-determination was incompatible with a functional state. And he's right. Lenin's position was explicitly against the kind of (authoritarian, Russo-supremacist) state Putin wants, and Stalin wanted, which is why Stalin had to murder all the old guard Bolsheviks while committing genocide against Ukrainians (and others) and Putin has to invade Ukraine and god knows who else next. Their image/fantasy of what Russia is or has to be, requires it. And given China's behaviour in Tibet and Xinjiang, they have similar perspectives.
mensetmanusman 5y ago
If Russia falls, there is no large country to back up their shenanigans.
Element_ 5y ago
It is pretty simple; a regional war in Ukraine weakens both the west and Russia while reducing their focus on China. China's best strategic interest is to keep the regional war going as long as possible. China is not really "helping" Russia, rather propping up one side of the information war to ensure the war grinds on.
9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
> I don’t know why China is so keen on helping Russia. They are ancient neighbors and have a vested interest in helping maintain global geopolitical harmony, just like all other globalized nations.
- chipgap98 5y ago
  How are they helping maintain global geopolitical harmony? Their actions seem to be doing the opposite
  - itsoktocry 5y ago
    >How are they helping maintain global geopolitical harmony? Their actions seem to be doing the opposite That depends on where you sit, doesn't it? Balance of power. The West constantly talking about spreading democracy around the globe isn't appealing to non-democratic governments.
    - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
      > The West constantly talking about spreading democracy around the globe isn't appealing to non-democratic governments. Arguably, the level of pro-democracy proselytizing could be construed as an act of war through clandestine psychological operations.
  - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
    They keep the bacon flowing, for one. They invest in sustainability initiatives. They conduct anti-terrorism training exercises with their neighbors. Plenty of other things, I’m sure.
yyyk 5y ago
They're part of the same anti-Western axis with the same enemies and similar enough goals. The Cold War has returned. Western politicians may refuse to see it, but reality has a way of making itself felt.
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  The Cold War never ended for the u.s. The USSR fell apart, but the US kept building bases, toppling regimes, and expanding.
duxup 5y ago
They can play both sides without much consequence, and milk Russia for some cheap oil / deals. For now that works for them.

linspace 5y ago

Me neither, I think the war is bad for their interests. On the other hand Putin falling may be bad for their interests too.

null_object 5y ago

I think both are possible - but if they continue destabilizing the West, who’s gonna be buying their shoddily made consumer crap?

Ygg2 5y ago
In that case, I'm sure China would support the West, with loans. With generous interest rate for China.

throwmeariver1 5y ago

A weakened Russia is the best thing that can happen for China and India if they get Russia to completely cut from the west. Russia and the vast amount of natural resources are at their disposal at a really low prize.

tartoran 5y ago
But buying ads to push their narrative does not make Russia weaker. Not doing anything does
- oneorangeday 5y ago
  But it does create a divide in our politics and with elections coming up we may see some support for Russia from one or more politicians.

Sol- 5y ago

It's win-win for them, no? A weak Russia isolated from the west means cheap resources for China. And the West focusing on the conflict and spending resources in Europe draws attention away from China in Asia. Seems like it's their interest to keep both parties in a drawn out conflict. Though perhaps they have to balance it with how it affects the world economy.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> win-win for them, no? No. Taiwan is seeing a massive increase in morale and defense interest [1]. The West has unified in a way not seen since World War II. If Xi sides with the baddies, he risks the stink rubbing off on him. [1] https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/in-taiwan-putins-war-in-ukraine-stirs-new-interest-in-self-defense-11646402103 https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/in-taiwan-putins-war-in-ukr...
- RNAlfons 5y ago
  I don't think China could do anything about the attack itself (besides pushing it back into the mud...). This way the Taiwan development isn't anything they could change. It will wear off though and doesn't really change anything about the whole situation. In return they get to see what the West will do and what they'd do if China would to attack Taiwan. They get the cheap resources OP mentioned above, they get another country which depends on them and posting some Ads on Facebook won't hurt them. It's not like somebody would sanction them because of it. Realistically seen, they'll be able to get away with much more and I'm sure they'll test that in the weeks to come. I can't imagine "the West" sanctioning both a huge source for oil and gas AND a source for cheap manufactured goods and they know it too...
  - edgyquant 5y ago
    I don’t know how many times this has to be said, but the situations with Taiwan and Ukraine are in no way similar. The US has no formal alliance, or guarantees, with Ukraine. The US not rushing to defend them is not proof they won’t defend Taiwan (for one thing Taiwan is vital to the American military as a chip manufacturer.)

5e92cb50239222b 5y ago

Russia has nowhere else to go now that western markets are closed to them. China will be able to buy natural gas and oil nearly at cost because nobody else is willing to buy them, and gets to dictate the prices it's willing to pay. It also gets a large market for the products of its industry with close to zero competition. At least that's the general feeling among Russian economists whom I've been reading lately.

saiya-jin 5y ago
Not so sure about that market part... its 160 million of mostly poor folks who are becoming massively more poor as we write here. That's not so lucrative market compared to ie Europe with 500+ million wealthier citizens. But yeah Chinese cheap stuff will not have much competition.
- jessaustin 5y ago
  China can trade with Russia as much as it wants. Ukraine might sanction them, but no one else is going to cut off China.
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    The point in the previous comment was, that there is little China can get from a trade with Russia other than natural resources. Russia is quickly running out of foreign money. While the West cannot "cut off" China as too much manufacturing has moved there, supporting Russia in this already has an impact on the reception of Chinese brands in the West. Perhaps less so in the US, but so far Chinese brands are quite popular in the EU. This could change quickly. Also this encourages to reduce the dependencies on China.
    - jessaustin 5y ago
      As a populous nation whose economy is based primarily on manufacturing, natural resources is the main thing that China would want to obtain from any other nation, particularly one with whom it shares the sixth-longest international border.

f38zf5vdt 5y ago

China and Russia have been classically opposed and clashing forces since the 1800s, even under dual-communist regimes. It was so bad in the 1960s that the Soviets wanted to engage in pre-emptive nuclear war with China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split Making Russia completely dependent on China economically will put a leash on Russia, effectively establishing it as a Chinese protectorate much like the Li–Lobanov Treaty made China a Russian protectorate.

plussed_reader 5y ago

What's not to understand? Russia is doing the pre-production research of how China will need to protect their economy when they put their military in Taiwan.

tablespoon 5y ago
> What's not to understand? Russia is doing the pre-production research of how China will need to protect their economy when they put their military in Taiwan. China will not get sanctioned like Russia has. The world's dependence on Chinese manufacturing is like Europe's dependence on Russian gas, times ten. Or, more precisely, it will get sanctioned like Russia has, but like the Russian sanctions, they will include exceptions for everything the West needs to buy from China, which is nearly everything.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > China will not get sanctioned like Russia has Nobody thought Russia would get sanctioned like Russia has.
  - pjerem 5y ago
    Well, I read your comment, I look around me, I see no item that is not "Made in China". There is no way China gets sanctioned for barely anything without years (decades ?) of re-industrialization of the west. Well, at some point, I even think that China could make the entire west civilization collapse just by stopping their exportation.
    - aaronblohowiak 5y ago
      For consumer goods, sure. But much of that is not what makes up the entire west civilization, imho
      - pjerem 5y ago
        A lot of people in the west couldn't potentially afford a single modern computer or a smartphone without any piece from China. At least it would push us to take reusing more seriously. Brutal decoupling from China could be really, probably extremely hard, but in a lot of aspects, intellectually interesting to watch. How Europe will react to adapt the current crisis regarding fossils will also be really interesting. I'm just hoping that it will accelerate the de-carbonation of our energy sources. But it's just that, hopes.

tablespoon 5y ago

> Or is this some long-term strategy “against the West”? This. Both Xi and Putin chafe against the liberal order and see it as something in decline that stands in the way of their own goals.

thereddaikon 5y ago

All of those things but also, supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine is internally consistent with their views on Taiwan. They cannot denounce Russian aggression on Ukraine but still openly claim Taiwan.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
robert_foss 5y ago
I'm pretty sure China recognized Ukraine as an independent country until very recently.
- YPPH 5y ago
  No foreign policy expert but it seems more complicated than that. China still does recognise Ukraine as independent in the sense it continues to push for respect of "territorial integrity". It's a key part of Chinese foreign policy, and is what China uses to maintain its false claim over Taiwan (which it sees as Beijing territory, notwithstanding that Taiwanese people see themselves as independent). Yet it still refuses to condemn Russian aggression on the basis that Russia has "security concerns" which China considers legitimate and the result of the US/NATO. Confused? So am I. The stance is confused and confusing. It explains why the Beijing narrative seems to change daily as it attempts to push and balance these seemingly irreconcilable views.
  - wbsss4412 5y ago
    > notwithstanding that Taiwanese people see themselves as independent. It isn’t that cut and dry. Most Taiwanese people prefer the status quo, surely by no small measure due to the fact that an outright declaration of independence would provoke China, but still, people who paint the picture as black and white like you have are either advancing an agenda or simply ignorant of the facts on the ground in Taiwan.
    - stale2002 5y ago

Ourgon 5y ago

China needs oil, minerals, wood and food. Russia has all of these so a good relationship to Russia is a guarantee for access to those things. A weakened Russia might even need "assistance" to keep Siberia - where all those mentioned things are found - safe.

mellavora 5y ago
sounds like settlers of catan. What about fish?
- Ourgon 5y ago
  China has access to the world's oceans and as such is not in dire need of fishing grounds.

inglor_cz 5y ago

They want to turn Russia into their client state.

mark_l_watson 5y ago

I think the answers to your question revolve around Russia ending up being an economically linked vassal state of China, China/India/Russia becoming an economic block, and a desire to not use the US dollar as a reserve currency. Personally, I think Putin is screwing over his own people almost as badly as people in Ukraine - in the long run. Ukraine will get a lot of love from the west, when the fighting is over.

paganel 5y ago
A pivot to Asia is what Russia actually needs (and needed, even before the war), Europe is a stagnating continent with a stagnating economy. I venture to say that in the long run this will benefit Russia (if they manage to remain in one piece, that is), because the growth can only come from there, i.e. from Asia. You're mentioning China/India/Russia like they might be some minions, but taken together they have a population of about 3 billion people (out of ~8 billion the Earth now has) and a giant land surface (thanks to Russia, mostly). Probably the Western US and Canada will also get dragged into this, economically speaking, for its own benefit. What was the correct decision for Obama and its foreign policy advisers (they were the first ones to brand the "pivot to Asia" thing) in the early 2010s is also the right decision to take for today's Russia.
- phicoh 5y ago
  This seems like a weird argument. Russia was in a great position selling natural gas to Europe. Alternatives to Russian gas are quite a bit more expensive, so they were getting a good price. Russia could afford to limit exports to China. Without exports to Europa, Russia would be completely at the mercy of China. Russia only has a tiny economy compared to China, so if China decides to play games, there is not much Russia can do. Given China's recent behavior, it is extremely likely that Russia will get deals to mainly benefit China.
  - paganel 5y ago
    Selling only natural gas, even at very expensive prices, doesn't get you anywhere, long term, Putin knows as much that's why in the last few years Russia tried to make a conscious effort not to depend on oil and gas as an economy anymore (if I'm not mistaken the share of oil&gas in the Russian economy has gone down from about 14% to about 8-9% in the last few years, I'm too lazy to search for the exact Economist article where I had read that). > Russia only has a tiny economy compared to China, so if China decides to play games, From Putin's perspective, or whomever will take his place, it's better to be at China's mercy compared to being at the West's mercy (as present economic sanctions demonstrate it was the case), as in China and Russia are a lot more close, ideologically speaking, compared with how Russia and the West compare. And Russia still has and will have nukes, there's no way for China to take some piece of Russia's Far East (which I know you didn't mention but is a point often made when it comes to the Russia-China relation).

kstenerud 5y ago

Anti-NATO sentiment has become pivotal to China's future and the new world order since recent events have pushed most of the world into America's corner (which hurts China). Now they're basically compensating for Russia's mess (and won't ever let them forget that).

ashwagary 5y ago
Anti-NATO (countries) sentiment has existed since those countries invaded and looted China (and many other countries) 200 years ago. This sentiment exists in much of the world but has economic consequences that most countries cannot bare.
- t-3 5y ago
  Exactly. I think many also forget that Russia is not a traditional enemy of the rest of the world the same way it is to US/EU/Japan. The Cold War vibe in the US right now is like being a kid in the 90s hearing the military guys go apoplectic about "commies" anytime Russia comes up.

pm90 5y ago

The Trade war that Trump started is still ongoing if you haven’t noticed https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_....

cmrdporcupine 5y ago
The trade war was inevitable. Trump only made it crude, jingoistic, and America-centric rather than getting a hemispheric alliance. He alienated his closest trading partners (Europe but Canada especially) while simultaneously undermining the trade relationship with China. He was a blundering fool and his weakness contributed directly to the current situation in Ukraine, who he was willing to throw under the bus. I think "the west" (if we can speak of that still, though maybe we can even more after this latest crisis in Ukraine) will likely need an internally coherent trading bloc to counteract the situation in the east. That probably means a radical shift away from the China-Pacific trade push of the last 20-30 years and back towards a north-south and transatlantic route. My own country, Canada used to be a net food exporter, but now is a net importer, with large quantities of produce coming from China. It's going to have to change. Billions have been spent trying (and mostly failing) to build pipelines to Pacific tidewater to export Canadian oil and gas (LNG) to China. We should have been sending it east. Germany could do with copious amounts of LNG right now, and the US and Canada could be providing it, but the planning wasn't there. I can only hope the current crisis accelerates decarbonization in response -- but I fear the opposite will happen. All the "green energy" stocks I own are down, while oil and gas is up.

cmrdporcupine 5y ago

Two things. a) Putin's actions in Ukraine (and who knows where else) have ideological justifications similar to China's justifications of their actions in Xinjiang and Tibet. But also, the lines used by both regimes bear aesthetic resemblance to "anti-colonialist" and "anti-imperialist" narratives propagated by both the Stalinist and Maoist regimes in the past. Lots of "we're counteracting western aggression" [somewhat questionable here, Russia has never been under explicit military threat in this century] and "but the west does it too" [whataboutism, a diversion tactic] They were hypocritical arguments back in the Soviet era, with the way the Soviets treated Poland or Afghanistan, etc. but are way more threadbare now, hollowed of any "substance" at all. So I don't know how much of what is going on in China in regards to this is actually based on any geo-political strategy or how much of it is just reflexive fall-back to classic Maoist views of the west, a position against western imperialism. Like, we want to see some global strategy here, but it's also quite likely that the people at the heads of these regimes are much more incompetent than we give them credit for, and playing a game infused with ideological grudges which are only partially understood in the west. Clearly what is long-term good for China is continued peaceful trade with the west. Yes, there's tension around the basis of that, and how it is formulated. And "the west" certainly has its own aggressive colonialist and imperialist dominance which China feels compelled to counteract. But it seems to me there is no reason for China to toss the table over and stir up this level of chaos. It feels extremely ideological. Putin's rambling speech before the invasion -- justifying it -- referenced old debates within the Soviet past... he directly referenced and attacked Lenin and Lenin's positions (and Trotsky's -- a Ukrainian Jew) on the "national question" and national self-determination. Essentially from his POV Ukraine "only existed" because of the early Bolshevik positions on ethnicities etc. Classical Leninism, pre-Stalin, was concerned with granting federal independence to various Soviet ethnicities, to explicitly take apart Tsarist imperialism, and establish what they saw as a socialist federalism and this went along with an internationalist focus as well, as they hoped their revolution would spread to the west (and it did, sort of, in Germany and Hungary, but fizzled out.) After the failure of revolution in the west, and after Lenin died, Stalin came to power, brutally purged most of the old Bolsheviks, and instituted a kind of revanchist policy and restored major aspects of the old Tsarist pre-revolutionary Russian bureaucracy and internal policies. He paid some lip service to Lenin's position on the national question but basically committed internal genocide (and forced relocations) on various minority populations in the USSR, and was responsible for millions of deaths in Ukraine. Sort of ironic given he himself was of a minority ethnicity (Georgian) origin. Anyways, in Putin's speech he said explicitly that Lenin's position on national self-determination was incompatible with a functional state. And he's right. Lenin's position was explicitly against the kind of (authoritarian, Russo-supremacist) state Putin wants, and Stalin wanted, which is why Stalin had to murder all the old guard Bolsheviks while committing genocide against Ukrainians (and others) and Putin has to invade Ukraine and god knows who else next. Their image/fantasy of what Russia is or has to be, requires it. And given China's behaviour in Tibet and Xinjiang, they have similar perspectives.

mensetmanusman 5y ago

If Russia falls, there is no large country to back up their shenanigans.

Element_ 5y ago

It is pretty simple; a regional war in Ukraine weakens both the west and Russia while reducing their focus on China. China's best strategic interest is to keep the regional war going as long as possible. China is not really "helping" Russia, rather propping up one side of the information war to ensure the war grinds on.

9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago

> I don’t know why China is so keen on helping Russia. They are ancient neighbors and have a vested interest in helping maintain global geopolitical harmony, just like all other globalized nations.

chipgap98 5y ago
How are they helping maintain global geopolitical harmony? Their actions seem to be doing the opposite
- itsoktocry 5y ago
  >How are they helping maintain global geopolitical harmony? Their actions seem to be doing the opposite That depends on where you sit, doesn't it? Balance of power. The West constantly talking about spreading democracy around the globe isn't appealing to non-democratic governments.
  - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
    > The West constantly talking about spreading democracy around the globe isn't appealing to non-democratic governments. Arguably, the level of pro-democracy proselytizing could be construed as an act of war through clandestine psychological operations.
- 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago
  They keep the bacon flowing, for one. They invest in sustainability initiatives. They conduct anti-terrorism training exercises with their neighbors. Plenty of other things, I’m sure.

yyyk 5y ago

They're part of the same anti-Western axis with the same enemies and similar enough goals. The Cold War has returned. Western politicians may refuse to see it, but reality has a way of making itself felt.

s1artibartfast 5y ago
The Cold War never ended for the u.s. The USSR fell apart, but the US kept building bases, toppling regimes, and expanding.

duxup 5y ago

They can play both sides without much consequence, and milk Russia for some cheap oil / deals. For now that works for them.