> I guess my bottom line is that X does cause Y, because it intuitively seems like it would. Yes. Judea Pearl argues that one cannot and shouldn't argue about

> I guess my bottom line is that X does cause Y, because it intuitively seems like it would. Yes. Judea Pearl argues that one cannot and shouldn't argue about causes and effects when not knowing what X and Y are, without a deep understanding of the nature of X and Y. And if it was so, then the author would be able to include observational studies into his analysis. Moreover oftentimes there are no studies available except observational ones. A true experiment is a costly thing and sometimes it is plain impossible to conduct. If you have no abilities to reason about causes in this more general case, you a doomed.