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I don't think Americans understand how Europeans are experiencing this attitude of appeasing. We have seen this story. It doesn't stop with Ukraine. We have dr

by ralfn 5y ago

I don't think Americans understand how Europeans are experiencing this attitude of appeasing. We have seen this story. It doesn't stop with Ukraine. We have drastically increased our defense spending but it will take at least 5 years for Europe to be able to take on Russia by itself (with enough dominance that it will not destroy everything). Russia on the other hand is also not ready. And with the sanctions they can't afford to become ready. Any American calling for appeasement or somehow suggesting this is all actually the US fault's. It's not at all. It's not about NATO, it's not about America. It's about Russia being run as an authoritarian imperialistic etno state. The true demand is: we govern you and you join our war against the west: economically, politically and militarily. You either speak Russian or you die. You either become the property of the FSB, the oliargs and Putin or you die. Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakie, Latvia, Finland.. they are all next in line. And they are not making a secret of this! The idea that there is anything but a full out war that will stop the Russians is ridiculous. We have no chill for more appeasement or supposed neutrality or diplomacy. You are not negotiating with a France or an America. You are negotiating with people who see any type of 'giving in' as weakness and encouragement to take more. We are not going to wait until the Russians our on our front doors as well. At this rate within the next decade Europe will be spending more on its defenses than the US. That may be a good thing. But please, Americans, understand, this is a loyalty check for Europe and a strenght check for all your enemies. Don't blink. When talking about Russia only growl. Everytime the US appeases, Russia is encouraged to do more violence, more aggression. The more clarity the US gives on when and how it will enter war, the less likely it is for the war to take place. And we really just need you guys to have the discpline for the next few years, and then we won't ever need US soldiers patrolling our borders, which seems fair and important (because there are more threats in this world than just the Russians!)

Ancapistani 5y ago
> I don't think Americans understand how Europeans are experiencing this attitude of appeasing. I think it depends very much on how interested they are in foreign affairs, and their particular political views. I don't really fit "Democrat" or "Republican", but I definitely tend to lean more to the "Republican" side on this topic. Trump's platform included trying to get NATO members to "pay their fair share." Like most everything Trump says, that's unnecessarily confrontational, but the point is valid - Europe has been reliant upon US defense spending for decades. Because they know the US is there, they've cut defense spending. As you pointed out, that means they are currently incapable of effectively defending themselves without US intervention. > It's about Russia being run as an authoritarian imperialistic etno state. I think you're likely exactly correct here. More importantly, even if your analysis of Russia's motivations aren't quite right, you're "close enough." Their actions are consistent with this view. > Everytime the US appeases, Russia is encouraged to do more violence, more aggression. Because Russia currently sees the US as "Europe's military", you're absolutely correct. > The more clarity the US gives on when and how it will enter war, the less likely it is for the war to take place. And we really just need you guys to have the discpline for the next few years, and then we won't ever need US soldiers patrolling our borders, which seems fair and important (because there are more threats in this world than just the Russians!) Unfortunately, that's just not how the US political system works. We almost always have a fairly drastic change in leadership (and therefore foreign policy) every eight years. We often have it happen every four years. There is a reason that Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, then didn't move on to annex more (or all) of Ukraine until 2022: the US had a leader that was unpredictable and relatively aggressive from 2016-2020. With Biden replacing Trump, Putin began spooling up the Russian war machine for the attempt. He'll take what he can take right now, then pause. He'll give Americans time for Ukraine to fade from the popular consciousness before our next election cycle. If Biden is re-elected, I expect he'll almost immediately move to take more territory. If it's someone else, he'll likely wait a few months to observer their policy decisions and decide whether to move or not in ~late 2025 and act in ~mid 2026. Basically, Europe should plan on the US remaining passive until 2025 at the earliest. The only time you may have is while Putin is integrating Ukraine into Russia (or the "Russian sphere of influence", á'la Belarus). If I were the leader of a European power, I'd be putting defense at the highest possible priority short of a war footing. If I were the leader of an ex-Soviet state, I would be looking to build strong relationships with European states with stronger economies and militaries. The 2020s are going to be rough for Europe.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  > With Biden replacing Trump, Putin began spooling up the Russian war machine for the attempt. Do people and pundits have memory of a goldfish? Trump was literally impeached for blackmailing Zelensky, and witholding US arms and support, unless he opened an investigation into Biden (which Zelensky refused). If it wasn't for Trump, Ukraine would be better prepared today. There is also ample evidence of Trump's links to Russia that go all the way to the top, records of him admiring Putin, etc. It should be obvious that the reason war started now is gas shortages in Europe - Puting thought EU would place their cozy safety over solidarity with Ukraine, and he thought the war would be over so quickly, the beurocratic sanction-machine wouldn't get a chance to get going. He miscalculated. > Europe has been reliant upon US defense spending for decades. This is a myth - Europe has more soldiers, planes, tanks and missiles than Russia. There is no asset except nukes where Russia has an advantage. Russian military spending is 5% of Nato. Reminded that US spending is not 95% of nato. Their current issues in Ukraine should make it clearer for anyone who wasn't convinced. Europe perfectly capable of holding it's own when it comes to defence - what's lacking is a unified military structure and command, as that was always done through Nato.
- ralfn 5y ago
  >Because they know the US is there, they've cut defense spending. As you pointed out, that means they are currently incapable of effectively defending themselves without US intervention. Yeah, as a Dutch person, this always annoyed me to no extend. We have our wealthy liberal paradise, where spoiled pacifists spend their time making easy judgement about war decisions and sacrifices others make. Without any self realization that it is american troops and defense dollars patrolling the borders of our paradise enabling both the free speech & the prosperity to do so. Thankfully, now that reality came knocking on the door, people realize and understand. But we do need to hold out a few years, before we have scaled it all up. It definitely is the fault of governments and cultures like mine, but i'm going to give the Germans' a free pass on this, because their hesitation was more understandable. They can't invest in bombs without the world getting stressed and asking whom they are for. Now they can, because no one needs to ask. >the US had a leader that was unpredictable and relatively aggressive That made it harder for us to trust him as well, but yeah, in terms of dealing with foreign aggression, "crazy" is not a "crazy" strategy. But please realize that much of the polarization within the US is of Russian design. Feeding into it is one way we all would loose. It is not just Europe that has an enemy here. Quite the opposite. We are just physically closer, but we don't live rent free in their FSB minds, the way the US does. But this is not a war against NATO or even America. It is a war against Europe.

by ralfn 5y ago

Ancapistani 5y ago

> I don't think Americans understand how Europeans are experiencing this attitude of appeasing. I think it depends very much on how interested they are in foreign affairs, and their particular political views. I don't really fit "Democrat" or "Republican", but I definitely tend to lean more to the "Republican" side on this topic. Trump's platform included trying to get NATO members to "pay their fair share." Like most everything Trump says, that's unnecessarily confrontational, but the point is valid - Europe has been reliant upon US defense spending for decades. Because they know the US is there, they've cut defense spending. As you pointed out, that means they are currently incapable of effectively defending themselves without US intervention. > It's about Russia being run as an authoritarian imperialistic etno state. I think you're likely exactly correct here. More importantly, even if your analysis of Russia's motivations aren't quite right, you're "close enough." Their actions are consistent with this view. > Everytime the US appeases, Russia is encouraged to do more violence, more aggression. Because Russia currently sees the US as "Europe's military", you're absolutely correct. > The more clarity the US gives on when and how it will enter war, the less likely it is for the war to take place. And we really just need you guys to have the discpline for the next few years, and then we won't ever need US soldiers patrolling our borders, which seems fair and important (because there are more threats in this world than just the Russians!) Unfortunately, that's just not how the US political system works. We almost always have a fairly drastic change in leadership (and therefore foreign policy) every eight years. We often have it happen every four years. There is a reason that Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, then didn't move on to annex more (or all) of Ukraine until 2022: the US had a leader that was unpredictable and relatively aggressive from 2016-2020. With Biden replacing Trump, Putin began spooling up the Russian war machine for the attempt. He'll take what he can take right now, then pause. He'll give Americans time for Ukraine to fade from the popular consciousness before our next election cycle. If Biden is re-elected, I expect he'll almost immediately move to take more territory. If it's someone else, he'll likely wait a few months to observer their policy decisions and decide whether to move or not in ~late 2025 and act in ~mid 2026. Basically, Europe should plan on the US remaining passive until 2025 at the earliest. The only time you may have is while Putin is integrating Ukraine into Russia (or the "Russian sphere of influence", á'la Belarus). If I were the leader of a European power, I'd be putting defense at the highest possible priority short of a war footing. If I were the leader of an ex-Soviet state, I would be looking to build strong relationships with European states with stronger economies and militaries. The 2020s are going to be rough for Europe.

ClumsyPilot 5y ago
> With Biden replacing Trump, Putin began spooling up the Russian war machine for the attempt. Do people and pundits have memory of a goldfish? Trump was literally impeached for blackmailing Zelensky, and witholding US arms and support, unless he opened an investigation into Biden (which Zelensky refused). If it wasn't for Trump, Ukraine would be better prepared today. There is also ample evidence of Trump's links to Russia that go all the way to the top, records of him admiring Putin, etc. It should be obvious that the reason war started now is gas shortages in Europe - Puting thought EU would place their cozy safety over solidarity with Ukraine, and he thought the war would be over so quickly, the beurocratic sanction-machine wouldn't get a chance to get going. He miscalculated. > Europe has been reliant upon US defense spending for decades. This is a myth - Europe has more soldiers, planes, tanks and missiles than Russia. There is no asset except nukes where Russia has an advantage. Russian military spending is 5% of Nato. Reminded that US spending is not 95% of nato. Their current issues in Ukraine should make it clearer for anyone who wasn't convinced. Europe perfectly capable of holding it's own when it comes to defence - what's lacking is a unified military structure and command, as that was always done through Nato.
ralfn 5y ago
>Because they know the US is there, they've cut defense spending. As you pointed out, that means they are currently incapable of effectively defending themselves without US intervention. Yeah, as a Dutch person, this always annoyed me to no extend. We have our wealthy liberal paradise, where spoiled pacifists spend their time making easy judgement about war decisions and sacrifices others make. Without any self realization that it is american troops and defense dollars patrolling the borders of our paradise enabling both the free speech & the prosperity to do so. Thankfully, now that reality came knocking on the door, people realize and understand. But we do need to hold out a few years, before we have scaled it all up. It definitely is the fault of governments and cultures like mine, but i'm going to give the Germans' a free pass on this, because their hesitation was more understandable. They can't invest in bombs without the world getting stressed and asking whom they are for. Now they can, because no one needs to ask. >the US had a leader that was unpredictable and relatively aggressive That made it harder for us to trust him as well, but yeah, in terms of dealing with foreign aggression, "crazy" is not a "crazy" strategy. But please realize that much of the polarization within the US is of Russian design. Feeding into it is one way we all would loose. It is not just Europe that has an enemy here. Quite the opposite. We are just physically closer, but we don't live rent free in their FSB minds, the way the US does. But this is not a war against NATO or even America. It is a war against Europe.