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If that was -more- likely to occur under Trump than Biden, why did it not? Based on actual historical evidence, Putin is more likely to invade Ukraine when Bide

If that was -more- likely to occur under Trump than Biden, why did it not? Based on actual historical evidence, Putin is more likely to invade Ukraine when Biden is in office (both as VP and POTUS) than when Trump was, regardless of whatever nonsense Trump was tweeting.

ceejayoz 5y ago
Since we're wildly speculating on N=1 scenarios with no control group... Perhaps the invasion was planned for a second term, and COVID threw a giant wrench in the works.
- pkt_nspktr 5y ago
  Will four data points work? N=1, 2008. Russia invades/attacks Georgia[1]. US President: George W. Bush; US Vice President: Dick Cheney. N=2, 2014. Russia annexes Crimea[2]. US President: Barack Obama; US Vice President: Joe Biden. N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine. US President: Donald Trump; US Vice President: Mike Pence. N=4, 2022. Russia invades Ukraine[3]. US President: Joe Biden; US Vice President: Kamala Harris. Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, regardless of whether we liked Trump's manner of diplomacy or not. And Biden was in office during the annexation of Crimea, so he can be the "control group" for pre- and post-Trump policies toward Russia. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... -edited for readability.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine False; Russian forces were continuously involved in Ukraine (even outside of Crimea) in the Donbas war, with no significant, even transitorily successful, ceasefire until late 2020. > Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, Since in fact that happened in four of the four last presidential terms, that doesn't work even if you ignore that the logic here is simply very weak correlation even if the premises were correct.

ceejayoz 5y ago

Since we're wildly speculating on N=1 scenarios with no control group... Perhaps the invasion was planned for a second term, and COVID threw a giant wrench in the works.

pkt_nspktr 5y ago
Will four data points work? N=1, 2008. Russia invades/attacks Georgia[1]. US President: George W. Bush; US Vice President: Dick Cheney. N=2, 2014. Russia annexes Crimea[2]. US President: Barack Obama; US Vice President: Joe Biden. N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine. US President: Donald Trump; US Vice President: Mike Pence. N=4, 2022. Russia invades Ukraine[3]. US President: Joe Biden; US Vice President: Kamala Harris. Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, regardless of whether we liked Trump's manner of diplomacy or not. And Biden was in office during the annexation of Crimea, so he can be the "control group" for pre- and post-Trump policies toward Russia. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... -edited for readability.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine False; Russian forces were continuously involved in Ukraine (even outside of Crimea) in the Donbas war, with no significant, even transitorily successful, ceasefire until late 2020. > Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, Since in fact that happened in four of the four last presidential terms, that doesn't work even if you ignore that the logic here is simply very weak correlation even if the premises were correct.