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Fitch says default 'imminent' on Russian debt

39 points by novateg 5y ago

html5web 5y ago
What Happens After a Default? Country defaults tend to be very different than businesses or individuals. Instead of going out of business, countries are faced with a number of options. Often times, countries simply restructure their debt by either extending the debt's due date or devaluing their currency to make it more affordable. In the aftermath, many countries undergo a rough period of austerity followed by a period of resumed (and sometimes rapid) growth. For instance, if a country devalues its currency to pay its debt, the lower currency valuation makes their products cheaper for export and helps its manufacturing industry, which ultimately helps jumpstart its economy and make debt repayment easier. https://www.thebalance.com/what-happens-when-a-country-defaults-1978981 https://www.thebalance.com/what-happens-when-a-country-defau...
- totaldude87 5y ago
  i remember talks about Greece going default, is it any different ?
  - gopalv 5y ago
    > Greece going default, is it any different ? Greece used Euros, so the default in Greece was borne by everyone in the euro zone. The ECB got all the reputation of the Bundesbank in terms of inflation fighters. Portugal & Ireland for instance got pulled in because of Greece, due to the shared currency. The Russian situation might have some lenders sort of leaning in, depending on the politics of the process. India & Russia did some sort of hard peg on the Ruble for debt (India owed USSR, to be exact), instead of letting it float in Rubles vs USD.
- nine_zeros 5y ago
  Debt owed to Russian citizens - ratings downgrade and devaluation of currency only Debt owed to international entities - ratings downgrade, currency devaluation and a cushion from IMF that requires structural changes. In Russia's case, the structural change may be a good thing. Perhaps with amendments to the constitution that allow for alternation of power.
  - supergirl 5y ago
    it’s not that Russia can’t pay. the article says Russia probably will choose not to pay. So I don’t think those things apply; it’s not a typical default
- jbverschoor 5y ago
  The “west” will provide capital in exchange of property rights to for example land or resources. This is also China’s play in Africa
supergirl 5y ago
sounds like the prediction is that Russia will choose not to pay not that it can’t pay. since the West is confiscating all assets it doesn’t make sense to keep paying debt to the West indeed
jokethrowaway 5y ago
That's funny, after the west confiscated Russian money abroad, what were they expecting? Private property should be defended always, not only when you're the recipient, otherwise you wreck your reputation. All wars are terrible but this Ukrainian invasion is no worse than any other wars the west pursued in the middle east in the name of freedom. I understand it's now virtuous to shit on Russian people (which is ridiculous: you're blaming random people for the action of their government on which they have little control) but these sanctions were uncalled for and are just harming people of Russian origin. I would understand more sending the army to fight along Ukraine, then sanctioning Russia.
- fineIllregister 5y ago
  > Private property should be defended always, not only when you're the recipient... Russia is attacking civilian targets, some them are private property. Seems like Russia wants private property to be inviolable only when they are the recipient. > All wars are terrible but this Ukrainian invasion is no worse than any other wars the west pursued in the middle east in the name of freedom. Two wrongs make a right? How does the US government's hypocrisy entitle Russia to take territory from a country that had nothing to do with Iraq or Yemen? Also, Russia was in Syria to prop up a dictator. Does that entitle US to annex parts of Russia? Or Cuba? > ...but these sanctions were uncalled for and are just harming people of Russian origin. The collapse of the Russian economy directly impacts Russia's ability to wage war. I empathize with the Russian people as they are clearly oppressed by Putin and the oligarchs, but obviously the war is likely to end if Russia can't pay or supply their soldiers.
  - jokethrowaway 5y ago
    > Russia is attacking civilian targets, some them are private property. Seems like Russia wants private property to be inviolable only when they are the recipient. I agree it's deplorable. I'm against all governments and all wars, which are possible only because governments steal resources from a large area and socialise the huge cost of war. Two wrongs still don't make a right, though. Stealing from the thieves doesn't make you right unless you're giving back the money to the victims. The west is just pocketing the money of rich Russians, whether they had a connection with the Kremlin or not. What would you say if the USA invaded Mexico and Europe would steal Elon Musk's villas in Europe? Why didn't we sanction the USA for Iraq? Or Turkey for Cyprus? When sanctions are applied inconsistently, it makes you wonder what's different this time. Is it because the victims are white that we suddenly give a shit about wars? Or is it because we need to forget the pandemic is over but the restrictions aren't? > Also, Russia was in Syria to prop up a dictator. Does that entitle US to annex parts of Russia? Or Cuba? I don't think Russia is entitled to annex Ukraine (no-one is, in general), but Ukraine is not part of NATO and doesn't have nuclear weapons, making it a target, especially considering Ukraine joining NATO would surround Russia. I don't understand how we go from the usual geopolitical shitshow that our leaders force on us to banning bank cards of Russian citizens living abroad. I know some.of them, they'll run out of money in two months and they'll have to move back to Russia.

39 points by novateg 5y ago

What Happens After a Default? Country defaults tend to be very different than businesses or individuals. Instead of going out of business, countries are faced with a number of options. Often times, countries simply restructure their debt by either extending the debt's due date or devaluing their currency to make it more affordable. In the aftermath, many countries undergo a rough period of austerity followed by a period of resumed (and sometimes rapid) growth. For instance, if a country devalues its currency to pay its debt, the lower currency valuation makes their products cheaper for export and helps its manufacturing industry, which ultimately helps jumpstart its economy and make debt repayment easier. https://www.thebalance.com/what-happens-when-a-country-defaults-1978981 https://www.thebalance.com/what-happens-when-a-country-defau...

totaldude87 5y ago
i remember talks about Greece going default, is it any different ?
- gopalv 5y ago
  > Greece going default, is it any different ? Greece used Euros, so the default in Greece was borne by everyone in the euro zone. The ECB got all the reputation of the Bundesbank in terms of inflation fighters. Portugal & Ireland for instance got pulled in because of Greece, due to the shared currency. The Russian situation might have some lenders sort of leaning in, depending on the politics of the process. India & Russia did some sort of hard peg on the Ruble for debt (India owed USSR, to be exact), instead of letting it float in Rubles vs USD.
nine_zeros 5y ago
Debt owed to Russian citizens - ratings downgrade and devaluation of currency only Debt owed to international entities - ratings downgrade, currency devaluation and a cushion from IMF that requires structural changes. In Russia's case, the structural change may be a good thing. Perhaps with amendments to the constitution that allow for alternation of power.
- supergirl 5y ago
  it’s not that Russia can’t pay. the article says Russia probably will choose not to pay. So I don’t think those things apply; it’s not a typical default
jbverschoor 5y ago
The “west” will provide capital in exchange of property rights to for example land or resources. This is also China’s play in Africa

supergirl 5y ago

sounds like the prediction is that Russia will choose not to pay not that it can’t pay. since the West is confiscating all assets it doesn’t make sense to keep paying debt to the West indeed

jokethrowaway 5y ago

That's funny, after the west confiscated Russian money abroad, what were they expecting? Private property should be defended always, not only when you're the recipient, otherwise you wreck your reputation. All wars are terrible but this Ukrainian invasion is no worse than any other wars the west pursued in the middle east in the name of freedom. I understand it's now virtuous to shit on Russian people (which is ridiculous: you're blaming random people for the action of their government on which they have little control) but these sanctions were uncalled for and are just harming people of Russian origin. I would understand more sending the army to fight along Ukraine, then sanctioning Russia.

fineIllregister 5y ago
> Private property should be defended always, not only when you're the recipient... Russia is attacking civilian targets, some them are private property. Seems like Russia wants private property to be inviolable only when they are the recipient. > All wars are terrible but this Ukrainian invasion is no worse than any other wars the west pursued in the middle east in the name of freedom. Two wrongs make a right? How does the US government's hypocrisy entitle Russia to take territory from a country that had nothing to do with Iraq or Yemen? Also, Russia was in Syria to prop up a dictator. Does that entitle US to annex parts of Russia? Or Cuba? > ...but these sanctions were uncalled for and are just harming people of Russian origin. The collapse of the Russian economy directly impacts Russia's ability to wage war. I empathize with the Russian people as they are clearly oppressed by Putin and the oligarchs, but obviously the war is likely to end if Russia can't pay or supply their soldiers.
- jokethrowaway 5y ago
  > Russia is attacking civilian targets, some them are private property. Seems like Russia wants private property to be inviolable only when they are the recipient. I agree it's deplorable. I'm against all governments and all wars, which are possible only because governments steal resources from a large area and socialise the huge cost of war. Two wrongs still don't make a right, though. Stealing from the thieves doesn't make you right unless you're giving back the money to the victims. The west is just pocketing the money of rich Russians, whether they had a connection with the Kremlin or not. What would you say if the USA invaded Mexico and Europe would steal Elon Musk's villas in Europe? Why didn't we sanction the USA for Iraq? Or Turkey for Cyprus? When sanctions are applied inconsistently, it makes you wonder what's different this time. Is it because the victims are white that we suddenly give a shit about wars? Or is it because we need to forget the pandemic is over but the restrictions aren't? > Also, Russia was in Syria to prop up a dictator. Does that entitle US to annex parts of Russia? Or Cuba? I don't think Russia is entitled to annex Ukraine (no-one is, in general), but Ukraine is not part of NATO and doesn't have nuclear weapons, making it a target, especially considering Ukraine joining NATO would surround Russia. I don't understand how we go from the usual geopolitical shitshow that our leaders force on us to banning bank cards of Russian citizens living abroad. I know some.of them, they'll run out of money in two months and they'll have to move back to Russia.