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I think I see what you're getting at - there is some point at which the cumulative damage of loss of trade is worse for Russia than the benefits to be gained in

by throwaway22032 5y ago

I think I see what you're getting at - there is some point at which the cumulative damage of loss of trade is worse for Russia than the benefits to be gained in Ukraine. My point is that I'm not sure this is even in the hands of governments any more. A state can withdraw jets, it can't deal with hundreds of companies pulling out entirely, a collapsed stock market, etc. Basically you can't actually unwind the sanctions, just like you can't unbomb a Ukrainian village. If it gets bad enough then there's surely a point of no return somewhere.

netsharc 5y ago
Yeah, painting Putin to a losing corner will just mean possible more destruction including nukes, he must have a face-saving out, because kicking him and expecting him to retreat with his tail between his legs before he's exhausted all options is unrealistic. IMO that's why NATO doesn't want to get involved (yet), the USA can bomb Putin's forces out of Ukraine, but it'd be too embarrassing for Putin to accept without a fight, and for that fight he still has... nukes.
BobbyJo 5y ago
> Basically you can't actually unwind the sanctions, just like you can't unbomb a Ukrainian village. If it gets bad enough then there's surely a point of no return somewhere. The longer things go on, the higher the perceived risk will be for companies returning, but there will always be an incentive for companies to return to take advantage of arbitration opportunities, considering Russia's depressed state. Whether they back down sooner, later, or never, is just risk companies need to price in when doing business there. Changes in the risk will change the benefits to the Russian people, and the profiles of the companies that show up in their markets, but hell, even Indonesia gets trade. There is never a point of no return, not so long as Russia has a resource to trade.

netsharc 5y ago

Yeah, painting Putin to a losing corner will just mean possible more destruction including nukes, he must have a face-saving out, because kicking him and expecting him to retreat with his tail between his legs before he's exhausted all options is unrealistic. IMO that's why NATO doesn't want to get involved (yet), the USA can bomb Putin's forces out of Ukraine, but it'd be too embarrassing for Putin to accept without a fight, and for that fight he still has... nukes.

BobbyJo 5y ago

> Basically you can't actually unwind the sanctions, just like you can't unbomb a Ukrainian village. If it gets bad enough then there's surely a point of no return somewhere. The longer things go on, the higher the perceived risk will be for companies returning, but there will always be an incentive for companies to return to take advantage of arbitration opportunities, considering Russia's depressed state. Whether they back down sooner, later, or never, is just risk companies need to price in when doing business there. Changes in the risk will change the benefits to the Russian people, and the profiles of the companies that show up in their markets, but hell, even Indonesia gets trade. There is never a point of no return, not so long as Russia has a resource to trade.