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> I really wonder whether any of the political establishment even has a clue as to the political makeup of the Independents. The do. The article is incredibly
by tharne 5y ago
> I really wonder whether any of the political establishment even has a clue as to the political makeup of the Independents.
The do. The article is incredibly misleading. The drop in party affiliation does not mean that people are not partisan, are less partisan, or that someone who is not affiliated with party is open to voting for a candidate from either party.
One of the major strategic breakthroughs of the Bush campaign on '04 and the Obama campaign in '08 was the ability to identity partisans who were not registered with one party or the other. Most people who are independents consistently will still vote for the same party regularly from one election to the next. Since at least 2000, most swings in voting patterns from one election to the next have more to do with turnout among various groups than with individuals voting differently than they had in the past.
In 2010 for example, the Democrats suffered one of the worst midterm defeats in modern history. It was portrayed in the media as voters turning against Obama and the Democratic party. In fact, it was about turnout. Had turnout in 2010 looked like it had just two years earlier, the Democrats would not have suffered that kind of midterm "shellacking", as Obama called it. The real, and far less click-baity, story was that Obama was an incredibly charismatic and effective campaigner. When he wasn't on the ballet, a lot of democratic-leaning voters stayed home.
- 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago> The do. The article is incredibly misleading. I’m reading a lot of talk from you about the Democrats and Republicans, but what are the Independents thinking?
- tharne 5y agoWhat I'm saying is that the parties understand the makeup of independents insofar as they know there are so few true independents, that it doesn't really matter what they think. In today's era, you get much more bang for your buck by convincing your own partisans to make it to the polls. My broader point is that contrary to what the article implies, "Unaffiliated Voter != A voter who is open to voting for either party"
- 9wzYQbTYsAIc 5y ago> that it doesn't really matter what they think That sounds pretty clearly in contradiction with the Declaration of Independence and the subsequent United States Constitution and the subsequent United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
- tharne 5y agoWell, regardless of how things should work, that's how they do work. I know some folks who've worked for politicians over the years and it's pretty transactional. For instance, it's fairly common for feedback from constituents to get prioritized based on voting history (among other things like political influence). If you reach out to an elected official, one of their staff will often check the voter rolls. If you're not registered to vote, or if you are and you haven't voted in a long time, don't expect your complaint to get much attention.