5 ms·

The puzzle doesn't fit.The ex KGB agent and the dancing comedian

3 points by pavornyoh 5y ago

The war minus the human pain and suffering is like watching a live chess match. Main players being what I mentioned in the title and then rest of the world on standby with " cleverly worded press conferences". What I can't figure out are; 1)How is Ukraine (inspiring) able to fight Russia - superpower and hangon for this long? 2)How are they able to predict and shoot down Russian jets with precision ? Unless it is us haha fighting on their behalf and with the jets painted with Ukrainian flags? I know... It's crazy thought but.. 3)And why would the president of Belarus whom aligns with Russia make a "supposedly mistake as he briefed his generals"about the next country for invasion - Moldova should Russia win the battle? 4)And why during the third peace talk, Russia had five people at the table and Ukraine four? Is it to show dominance? So very interesting to say the least. The question is who makes a serious mistake at a time like this when they trying to win? Nobody. So why? One of the rules of chess is to attack the king by focusing on his escape squares and Ukraine is doing it well unless ahemmm........... Am I making sense or am I a crazy woman? Thanks for answering and please have a good rest of our week.

afarrell 5y ago
Chess is a very simple game. All of the rules are known to both players. All of the information is known to both players. It is impossible for a rook to suddenly get stuck in mud or surrender because it feels hungry and confused. It is impossible for one side to roll a set of dice to request additional knights. Neither player’s cognitive abilities are impaired by sleep deprivation or fears of being murdered by a bishop. There are only two players. > who makes a serious mistake at a time like this when they are trying to win. Nobody. The number of examples of military blunders in human history is too numerous to count. Some examples you’ll want to look at include the British defense of Singapore, the peninsula campaign of the US civil war, the Franco-Prussian war, and the 12 battles of the Isonzo river.
- pavornyoh 5y ago
  Yes, it is indeed a simple game. I do agree with everything you have said and I am very familiar with those thanks. I am too addicted to history. Let me ask you this. Why hasn't Putin been successful with all his experience? Did he overplay his hand?
  - vimax 5y ago
    My guess is two reasons: He vastly underestimated Ukrainian resistance And Ukrainian resistance has been supported by Western intelligence and weapons Putin's day 1 plan was to seize most of the airfields and assassinate the president. These were attempted by trained forces and could have worked. The Ukrainians managed to stop them all. I'm sure these included cyber attacks we haven't heard about. After that the Ukrainians have had remarkable success in targeting Russian logistics efforts. Few people were expecting such a fierce Ukrainian resistance. That is by far Putin's biggest miscalculations. Even had things gone his way, it's clear now he'd be in for a long insurgency that he wasn't anticipating. Putin has made many poor decisions and should have been able to overcome them by force to meet many of his objectives. But, the Ukrainians have had the intelligence and tools to amplify his mistakes into the clusterfuck we're seeing. I'm sure Russian morale is low and there were some poor logistics, but it seems exaggerated in the news. Putin still has most of his combat forces available and estimates I've heard are he can sustain the attack for several more weeks.
    - moistly 5y ago
      And Yes men and fearful underlings lied about the real state of affairs regarding preparedness, quality of equipment, training, enthusiasm, expenditures, etc. And Russia is corrupt to the core. Funding for training, equipment, maintenance, planning: stolen.
      - vimax 5y ago
        That seems to be contributing, but the puzzling thing is the lack of those problems in recent Russian conflicts in Syria, Crimea, etc... How did their preparedness degrade so much in only a few years with no indication of Russian military bureaucratic breakdown from the outside? I'd like to see satellite images of the Russian troop buildup on the border and in Belarus and see if there's any signs of the incompetence and lack of coordination we're seeing in the field.
        moistly 5y ago
tannerbrockwell 5y ago
The Ukraines shot one of their negotiators for treason. Maybe no one wants his seat.[1] [1]: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582805/Ukrainian-peace-negotiator-shot-dead-amid-claims-Russian-spy.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582805/Ukrainian-...
- pavornyoh 5y ago
  It could be. He was accused of being a double agent so you probably are right. I think I am thinking too much. But it is interesting how the Russian president has often been portrayed when he could be a dud? Not as smart and strategic? Just thinking out loud so don't mind me hey haha... I can't just can't fathom how a man so smart as he is often portrayed - with b*s and feared is head to head with the Ukrainian president. Did everyone get him wrong for years? Hmm...
gvb 5y ago
1) How is Ukraine (inspiring) able to fight Russia - superpower and hangon for this long? A: “In a fight between a bear and an alligator, it is the terrain which determines who wins.” – Jim Barksdale Parable explained: "Barksdale: Well, in the animal world, a bear is not going to whip an alligator in water. And an alligator isn’t going to whip a bear on dry land. So, it’s not just the fighter, it’s the terrain that they’re on..." https://hbr.org/2014/06/dont-play-with-dead-snakes-and-other-management-advice https://hbr.org/2014/06/dont-play-with-dead-snakes-and-other... Russia is struggling, especially in the north, with adverse terrain. See also "Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics" [1] 2) How are they able to predict and shoot down Russian jets with precision? Ukraine started the war with some of the best antiaircraft missiles and some of the best fighter jets Russia produced. That has been augmented by both Russian-made MANPADS (Strela [2]) and US-made MANPADS (Stingers [3]). The aircraft have to fly low because they don't have (enough / many / any?) precision guided bombs so they have to fly low in order to drop bombs with any accuracy. That makes them vulnerable to MANPADS. There might also be some cuing hints coming from the AWACS planes orbiting in Poland. [1] https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/ https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-... [2] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-03/card/germany-sends-more-anti-aircraft-missiles-to-ukraine-Vf774oFbG1rdk0mgi3NY https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-... [3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines-use-of-stinger-and-javelin-missiles-is-outstripping-us-production/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines...

3 points by pavornyoh 5y ago

afarrell 5y ago

Chess is a very simple game. All of the rules are known to both players. All of the information is known to both players. It is impossible for a rook to suddenly get stuck in mud or surrender because it feels hungry and confused. It is impossible for one side to roll a set of dice to request additional knights. Neither player’s cognitive abilities are impaired by sleep deprivation or fears of being murdered by a bishop. There are only two players. > who makes a serious mistake at a time like this when they are trying to win. Nobody. The number of examples of military blunders in human history is too numerous to count. Some examples you’ll want to look at include the British defense of Singapore, the peninsula campaign of the US civil war, the Franco-Prussian war, and the 12 battles of the Isonzo river.

pavornyoh 5y ago
Yes, it is indeed a simple game. I do agree with everything you have said and I am very familiar with those thanks. I am too addicted to history. Let me ask you this. Why hasn't Putin been successful with all his experience? Did he overplay his hand?
- vimax 5y ago
  My guess is two reasons: He vastly underestimated Ukrainian resistance And Ukrainian resistance has been supported by Western intelligence and weapons Putin's day 1 plan was to seize most of the airfields and assassinate the president. These were attempted by trained forces and could have worked. The Ukrainians managed to stop them all. I'm sure these included cyber attacks we haven't heard about. After that the Ukrainians have had remarkable success in targeting Russian logistics efforts. Few people were expecting such a fierce Ukrainian resistance. That is by far Putin's biggest miscalculations. Even had things gone his way, it's clear now he'd be in for a long insurgency that he wasn't anticipating. Putin has made many poor decisions and should have been able to overcome them by force to meet many of his objectives. But, the Ukrainians have had the intelligence and tools to amplify his mistakes into the clusterfuck we're seeing. I'm sure Russian morale is low and there were some poor logistics, but it seems exaggerated in the news. Putin still has most of his combat forces available and estimates I've heard are he can sustain the attack for several more weeks.
  - moistly 5y ago
    And Yes men and fearful underlings lied about the real state of affairs regarding preparedness, quality of equipment, training, enthusiasm, expenditures, etc. And Russia is corrupt to the core. Funding for training, equipment, maintenance, planning: stolen.
    - vimax 5y ago
      That seems to be contributing, but the puzzling thing is the lack of those problems in recent Russian conflicts in Syria, Crimea, etc... How did their preparedness degrade so much in only a few years with no indication of Russian military bureaucratic breakdown from the outside? I'd like to see satellite images of the Russian troop buildup on the border and in Belarus and see if there's any signs of the incompetence and lack of coordination we're seeing in the field.
      - moistly 5y ago

tannerbrockwell 5y ago

The Ukraines shot one of their negotiators for treason. Maybe no one wants his seat.[1] [1]: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582805/Ukrainian-peace-negotiator-shot-dead-amid-claims-Russian-spy.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582805/Ukrainian-...

pavornyoh 5y ago
It could be. He was accused of being a double agent so you probably are right. I think I am thinking too much. But it is interesting how the Russian president has often been portrayed when he could be a dud? Not as smart and strategic? Just thinking out loud so don't mind me hey haha... I can't just can't fathom how a man so smart as he is often portrayed - with b*s and feared is head to head with the Ukrainian president. Did everyone get him wrong for years? Hmm...

gvb 5y ago

1) How is Ukraine (inspiring) able to fight Russia - superpower and hangon for this long? A: “In a fight between a bear and an alligator, it is the terrain which determines who wins.” – Jim Barksdale Parable explained: "Barksdale: Well, in the animal world, a bear is not going to whip an alligator in water. And an alligator isn’t going to whip a bear on dry land. So, it’s not just the fighter, it’s the terrain that they’re on..." https://hbr.org/2014/06/dont-play-with-dead-snakes-and-other-management-advice https://hbr.org/2014/06/dont-play-with-dead-snakes-and-other... Russia is struggling, especially in the north, with adverse terrain. See also "Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics" [1] 2) How are they able to predict and shoot down Russian jets with precision? Ukraine started the war with some of the best antiaircraft missiles and some of the best fighter jets Russia produced. That has been augmented by both Russian-made MANPADS (Strela [2]) and US-made MANPADS (Stingers [3]). The aircraft have to fly low because they don't have (enough / many / any?) precision guided bombs so they have to fly low in order to drop bombs with any accuracy. That makes them vulnerable to MANPADS. There might also be some cuing hints coming from the AWACS planes orbiting in Poland. [1] https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/ https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-... [2] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-03/card/germany-sends-more-anti-aircraft-missiles-to-ukraine-Vf774oFbG1rdk0mgi3NY https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-... [3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines-use-of-stinger-and-javelin-missiles-is-outstripping-us-production/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines...