5 ms·

>side effect risk for men under 40 is non trivial I call bullshit!

by loxias 5y ago

sirspacey 5y ago
Not that hard to look it up https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00054-8/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
gfodor 5y ago
1 in 10k myocarditis risk for males under 40 for moderna, replicated several times. Pfizer mixed iirc, but still non trivial risk.
- albertopv 5y ago
  Lol. We are talking about army/navy, where you could kill or get killed even in a drill.
  - WaxedChewbacca 5y ago
    Moving the goalposts. Issue under discussion is "side effect risk for men under 40 is non trivial".
  - native_samples 5y ago
    And soldiers are heavily trained to try and avoid getting killed, especially by friendly fire. People seem to think there's some contradiction here, but there isn't. Nobody wants to unnecessarily run the risk of being injured, perhaps permanently, by their own side. And it is unnecessary. COVID was already almost always mild for people outside of risk groups like the elderly (who aren't serving in the military anyway), and Omicron just took that mildness to another level. It just isn't necessary for this CO to get vaccinated against Omicron, especially as the vaccine effectiveness has gone negative i.e. not only can they get it anyway after vaccination but they're actually more likely to.
- voisin 5y ago
  And for those that got myocarditis, what percent had complications of any form? What percent reverted to normal in short order? 1 in 10k getting something that ultimately has no impact seems trivial to me.
  - gfodor 5y ago
    Unfortunately we still do not understand the mechanism of action nor the underlying cellular consequences. (Subclinical cases obviously are not measurable, and clinical resolutions may not mean no permanent damage.) Here is a study where autopsies were done on teenagers who appear to have died from the vaccine induced myocarditis. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35157759/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35157759/ It could go either way imo: we may find only a small number of people were harmed, or we may find that thousands of young men now have subclinical heart damage that they need to monitor and make lifestyle choices to address. I suspect we will know more in the next year, but in any case this radically alters the bioethics of mandates.
    - loxias 5y ago
      I can't edit my parent comment, just want to say thanks for your later comments, and citing sources. I was of the impression (and, tbh, am still under the suspicion..) that any myocarditis risk was "noise" -- not noticeably higher than that in the larger population, or that reported cases have confounding factors that would suggest the vaccine is not the cause. That being said, I think the more interesting question is what constitutes non-trivial medical risk. 1 in 10k is really small, especially for a medical treatment.
      - gfodor 5y ago
        It doesn’t constitute noise if you control for males under 40, especially Moderna. Early on this would have potentially just been data mining, but it’s been replicated and has also led to pulling Moderna for those age groups in some countries. 1 in 10k isn’t a massive risk, but when taken in conjunction with the mandates making the population this is administered in to be “all living humans” then the absolute numbers get very concerning imo, esp if you think there may be more subclinical cases than we think.
- JaimeThompson 5y ago
  What is the myocarditis risk for males under the age of 40 who get covid?
  - gfodor 5y ago
    The myocarditis from COVID and vaccines plausibly have separate prognoses (we don’t even know much about either) but in any case for this population some studies have shown the risk is higher of this specific symptom for both mRNA vaccines.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- RC_ITR 5y ago
  People always forget the counterpoint to this that like 5/10,000 American males from 18-40 have died from COVID…
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - gfodor 5y ago
    That’s a counterpoint to some arguments like “if it’s March 2021 and you’re 40 you should not get shot one” but not ones like “we should be concerned about vaccine side effects from Moderna” and “if you’ve caught COVID and you’re a 20 year old male it is unethical to mandate the vaccine and perhaps unwise to take it to prevent BA.2”
    - RC_ITR 5y ago
      I don’t understand your logic. 3500 US men in their 20s have died from COVID. There are 20m American men in their 20s. That’s still more than 1/10000. Isn’t this supposed to be a forum where people can do math?
      - gfodor 5y ago
        Math isn't the thing tripping you up. If we're talking about relative personal risk assessment, you need to incorporate natural immunity, omicron, the waning effect of the vaccines, demographic skew on both sides of this, uncertainty about the mechanism and scope of side effects, and a bunch of other things beyond dividing two numbers together.
        RC_ITR 5y ago
        What? 1/10,000 men develop a medical problem from taking a vaccine. Around 2/10,000 men die from not having access to the vaccine (I don't have the data, but I imagine most of those under 40 men died unvaccinated based on this [0]) You can mental gymnastics all you want about 'personal risk,' and 'natural immunity,' but at least agree that's not a data-driven approach. [0]https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~All+ages https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-co...

>side effect risk for men under 40 is non trivial I call bullshit!

by loxias 5y ago

>side effect risk for men under 40 is non trivial I call bullshit!

Not that hard to look it up https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00054-8/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

gfodor 5y ago

1 in 10k myocarditis risk for males under 40 for moderna, replicated several times. Pfizer mixed iirc, but still non trivial risk.

albertopv 5y ago
Lol. We are talking about army/navy, where you could kill or get killed even in a drill.
- WaxedChewbacca 5y ago
  Moving the goalposts. Issue under discussion is "side effect risk for men under 40 is non trivial".
- native_samples 5y ago
  And soldiers are heavily trained to try and avoid getting killed, especially by friendly fire. People seem to think there's some contradiction here, but there isn't. Nobody wants to unnecessarily run the risk of being injured, perhaps permanently, by their own side. And it is unnecessary. COVID was already almost always mild for people outside of risk groups like the elderly (who aren't serving in the military anyway), and Omicron just took that mildness to another level. It just isn't necessary for this CO to get vaccinated against Omicron, especially as the vaccine effectiveness has gone negative i.e. not only can they get it anyway after vaccination but they're actually more likely to.
voisin 5y ago
And for those that got myocarditis, what percent had complications of any form? What percent reverted to normal in short order? 1 in 10k getting something that ultimately has no impact seems trivial to me.
- gfodor 5y ago
  Unfortunately we still do not understand the mechanism of action nor the underlying cellular consequences. (Subclinical cases obviously are not measurable, and clinical resolutions may not mean no permanent damage.) Here is a study where autopsies were done on teenagers who appear to have died from the vaccine induced myocarditis. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35157759/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35157759/ It could go either way imo: we may find only a small number of people were harmed, or we may find that thousands of young men now have subclinical heart damage that they need to monitor and make lifestyle choices to address. I suspect we will know more in the next year, but in any case this radically alters the bioethics of mandates.
  - loxias 5y ago
    I can't edit my parent comment, just want to say thanks for your later comments, and citing sources. I was of the impression (and, tbh, am still under the suspicion..) that any myocarditis risk was "noise" -- not noticeably higher than that in the larger population, or that reported cases have confounding factors that would suggest the vaccine is not the cause. That being said, I think the more interesting question is what constitutes non-trivial medical risk. 1 in 10k is really small, especially for a medical treatment.
    - gfodor 5y ago
      It doesn’t constitute noise if you control for males under 40, especially Moderna. Early on this would have potentially just been data mining, but it’s been replicated and has also led to pulling Moderna for those age groups in some countries. 1 in 10k isn’t a massive risk, but when taken in conjunction with the mandates making the population this is administered in to be “all living humans” then the absolute numbers get very concerning imo, esp if you think there may be more subclinical cases than we think.
JaimeThompson 5y ago
What is the myocarditis risk for males under the age of 40 who get covid?
- gfodor 5y ago
  The myocarditis from COVID and vaccines plausibly have separate prognoses (we don’t even know much about either) but in any case for this population some studies have shown the risk is higher of this specific symptom for both mRNA vaccines.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
RC_ITR 5y ago
People always forget the counterpoint to this that like 5/10,000 American males from 18-40 have died from COVID…
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- gfodor 5y ago
  That’s a counterpoint to some arguments like “if it’s March 2021 and you’re 40 you should not get shot one” but not ones like “we should be concerned about vaccine side effects from Moderna” and “if you’ve caught COVID and you’re a 20 year old male it is unethical to mandate the vaccine and perhaps unwise to take it to prevent BA.2”
  - RC_ITR 5y ago
    I don’t understand your logic. 3500 US men in their 20s have died from COVID. There are 20m American men in their 20s. That’s still more than 1/10000. Isn’t this supposed to be a forum where people can do math?
    - gfodor 5y ago
      Math isn't the thing tripping you up. If we're talking about relative personal risk assessment, you need to incorporate natural immunity, omicron, the waning effect of the vaccines, demographic skew on both sides of this, uncertainty about the mechanism and scope of side effects, and a bunch of other things beyond dividing two numbers together.
      - RC_ITR 5y ago
        What? 1/10,000 men develop a medical problem from taking a vaccine. Around 2/10,000 men die from not having access to the vaccine (I don't have the data, but I imagine most of those under 40 men died unvaccinated based on this [0]) You can mental gymnastics all you want about 'personal risk,' and 'natural immunity,' but at least agree that's not a data-driven approach. [0]https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~All+ages https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-co...