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There's just that thing that had your previous president still been in charge we would most likely not be facing these problems right now. Most of your compatri

by Ourgon 5y ago

There's just that thing that had your previous president still been in charge we would most likely not be facing these problems right now. Most of your compatriots seem to agree with this statement [1], what do you think? Were the mean tweets a bigger danger to the world than what is waiting for us now? [1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/26/poll-trump-russia-ukraine-white-house https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/26/poll-trump-r...

ceejayoz 5y ago
Why do you think an opinion poll of the general public has any value here? Poll the public on general relativity or quantum physics and they’ll likely get it wrong. The same is probably true for complex geopolitical questions.
- Ourgon 5y ago
  Because the general public is supposed to be the people who get to vote for your president? The US is, after all, supposed to be a representative republic - that "representative" stands for "representing the general public". I thought that would be clear without the need for any explanation. Maybe the fact that explanation is needed gives an indication of the sorry state of the democratic process.
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    Polling the public is a great way to see who might win an election. It’s an insanely silly way of assessing “what would Putin have done in an alternate timeline”.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
He would have been -more- likely to invade Ukraine as Putin knows that Trump barely cares about the NATO countries, he certainly wouldn't have cared about Putin razing Ukraine to the ground. I will agree that nuclear war is certainly less likely if you let Putin do whatever he wants.
- pkt_nspktr 5y ago
  If that was -more- likely to occur under Trump than Biden, why did it not? Based on actual historical evidence, Putin is more likely to invade Ukraine when Biden is in office (both as VP and POTUS) than when Trump was, regardless of whatever nonsense Trump was tweeting.
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    Since we're wildly speculating on N=1 scenarios with no control group... Perhaps the invasion was planned for a second term, and COVID threw a giant wrench in the works.
    - pkt_nspktr 5y ago
      Will four data points work? N=1, 2008. Russia invades/attacks Georgia[1]. US President: George W. Bush; US Vice President: Dick Cheney. N=2, 2014. Russia annexes Crimea[2]. US President: Barack Obama; US Vice President: Joe Biden. N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine. US President: Donald Trump; US Vice President: Mike Pence. N=4, 2022. Russia invades Ukraine[3]. US President: Joe Biden; US Vice President: Kamala Harris. Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, regardless of whether we liked Trump's manner of diplomacy or not. And Biden was in office during the annexation of Crimea, so he can be the "control group" for pre- and post-Trump policies toward Russia. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... -edited for readability.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine False; Russian forces were continuously involved in Ukraine (even outside of Crimea) in the Donbas war, with no significant, even transitorily successful, ceasefire until late 2020. > Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, Since in fact that happened in four of the four last presidential terms, that doesn't work even if you ignore that the logic here is simply very weak correlation even if the premises were correct.
Ancapistani 5y ago
I don't think we would be facing these problems, but I'm also objective enough to admit that we would likely be facing others. On foreign policy - specifically, with regard to the tone of the US's involvement in NATO - I believe Trump was much better than Biden. On other issues, Trump was often... "suboptimal". The biggest issue I have with Trump is what the person you're replying to said: "He was a dumpster fire." It's difficult to lead a country when the very tone of your rhetoric angers half of it. He anger the Democrats enough that many voters would have elected _anyone_ to replace him. On the other hand, Trump's bombastic personality and over-the-top rhetoric is probably the only way a Republican could have been elected in 2016. I'm not sure it was a solvable problem.
ClumsyPilot 5y ago
Has everyone here forgotten that the reason Trump was impeached was because he was withholding support from Ukraine to Blackmail Zelensky? Has everyone already forgotten that he has deep russian ties and admires Putin? Everything written is in such contradiction to reality outside my window, I can't help but wonder what are you smoking?

by Ourgon 5y ago

ceejayoz 5y ago

Why do you think an opinion poll of the general public has any value here? Poll the public on general relativity or quantum physics and they’ll likely get it wrong. The same is probably true for complex geopolitical questions.

Ourgon 5y ago
Because the general public is supposed to be the people who get to vote for your president? The US is, after all, supposed to be a representative republic - that "representative" stands for "representing the general public". I thought that would be clear without the need for any explanation. Maybe the fact that explanation is needed gives an indication of the sorry state of the democratic process.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  Polling the public is a great way to see who might win an election. It’s an insanely silly way of assessing “what would Putin have done in an alternate timeline”.

stjohnswarts 5y ago

He would have been -more- likely to invade Ukraine as Putin knows that Trump barely cares about the NATO countries, he certainly wouldn't have cared about Putin razing Ukraine to the ground. I will agree that nuclear war is certainly less likely if you let Putin do whatever he wants.

pkt_nspktr 5y ago
If that was -more- likely to occur under Trump than Biden, why did it not? Based on actual historical evidence, Putin is more likely to invade Ukraine when Biden is in office (both as VP and POTUS) than when Trump was, regardless of whatever nonsense Trump was tweeting.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  Since we're wildly speculating on N=1 scenarios with no control group... Perhaps the invasion was planned for a second term, and COVID threw a giant wrench in the works.
  - pkt_nspktr 5y ago
    Will four data points work? N=1, 2008. Russia invades/attacks Georgia[1]. US President: George W. Bush; US Vice President: Dick Cheney. N=2, 2014. Russia annexes Crimea[2]. US President: Barack Obama; US Vice President: Joe Biden. N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine. US President: Donald Trump; US Vice President: Mike Pence. N=4, 2022. Russia invades Ukraine[3]. US President: Joe Biden; US Vice President: Kamala Harris. Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, regardless of whether we liked Trump's manner of diplomacy or not. And Biden was in office during the annexation of Crimea, so he can be the "control group" for pre- and post-Trump policies toward Russia. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... -edited for readability.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine False; Russian forces were continuously involved in Ukraine (even outside of Crimea) in the Donbas war, with no significant, even transitorily successful, ceasefire until late 2020. > Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, Since in fact that happened in four of the four last presidential terms, that doesn't work even if you ignore that the logic here is simply very weak correlation even if the premises were correct.

Ancapistani 5y ago

I don't think we would be facing these problems, but I'm also objective enough to admit that we would likely be facing others. On foreign policy - specifically, with regard to the tone of the US's involvement in NATO - I believe Trump was much better than Biden. On other issues, Trump was often... "suboptimal". The biggest issue I have with Trump is what the person you're replying to said: "He was a dumpster fire." It's difficult to lead a country when the very tone of your rhetoric angers half of it. He anger the Democrats enough that many voters would have elected _anyone_ to replace him. On the other hand, Trump's bombastic personality and over-the-top rhetoric is probably the only way a Republican could have been elected in 2016. I'm not sure it was a solvable problem.

ClumsyPilot 5y ago

Has everyone here forgotten that the reason Trump was impeached was because he was withholding support from Ukraine to Blackmail Zelensky? Has everyone already forgotten that he has deep russian ties and admires Putin? Everything written is in such contradiction to reality outside my window, I can't help but wonder what are you smoking?