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Couple of notes: 1. This is kind of funny when you think about it. I mean is Russia going to all of a sudden be very confused and think that the Americans gave

Couple of notes: 1. This is kind of funny when you think about it. I mean is Russia going to all of a sudden be very confused and think that the Americans gave Ukraine MIG-29s? No. Poland did. What's the point of the roundabout way of doing this? Maybe Poland is worried about intermediate range missiles targeting Polish airbases. But that seems like an escalation that Russia isn't interested in, unless they're in it for all the marbles. 2. This is further severing of ties between Russia and NATO-aligned countries. I expect other former Soviet Union states to follow and also acquire U.S. aircraft. They don't want to be reliant on Russian parts or technical know-how, and this further strengthens NATO around common aircraft and components. Expect American defense contractors (and some European ones as well) go get more business from countries such as Poland. As I am thinking about this I think #2 is really what this is all about, but that Poland doesn't want to deal with transferring the aircraft to Ukraine and the Americans are glad to do it.

ldoughty 5y ago
My understanding is: 1. Ukraine forces know how to pilot MIG29s 2. Poland has MIG-29s, USA does not 3. Poland has time to retrain on newer equipment, Ukraine does not 4. Poland doesn't want to be defenseless, if it gives aircraft to Ukraine. So Poland gives Ukraine exactly what they need right now... USA agrees to aid Poland in replacement aircraft. This isn't about "USA didn't give Ukraine aircraft", Poland did! It's about getting Ukraine the aircraft they know how to use right now
- ckozlowski 5y ago
  To add to this and the comment above: Poland also flies the F-16. There'd been some commentary earlier in which Poland said they'd be willing to divest themselves of their MiGs if they can get F-16s to replace them in order to maintain their force level requirements. My guess is that this transfer of the MiGs to the U.S. is to facilitate this exchange in a rapid manner that would take too long through regular procurement processes.
- glfharris 5y ago
  This is how I see it too. It'll be obvious to anyone where those aircraft have come from. Poland isn't going to deflect responsibility this way. Poland can't afford to donate it's air power so readily, but the USA allows them to with this move. It will also shift their military to be more on spec with other NATO countries.
melling 5y ago
Poland is part of NATO. Doubtful that they would be targeted.
justinhj 5y ago
Poland is side stepping the blatant risk of escalating to a war with Russia and/or WW3 by trying to move the Migs into Ukraine itself, but it still wants the F16s that the US is offering. This way it moves the problem to the US by having the planes go West to Germany instead and let Biden figure it out. I'm interested in how the US plans to get Migs into Ukraine in a way that isn't an act of war.
- logifail 5y ago
  > I'm interested in how the US plans to get Migs into Ukraine in a way that isn't an act of war. This. Biden said on 24 Feb that the US will be 'involved' if [Putin] moves into NATO countries. Now we're to believe NATO wants to move Migs into Ukraine? This isn't [yet] NATO vs Russia. Let's not make it that.
  - ISL 5y ago
    NATO already has been supplying advanced man-portable missiles, artillery, intelligence, firearms/machine-guns of all kinds, communications equipment, night-vision systems, etc. From that angle, an aircraft is only a small step upward. It really does make a difference who is flying the plane or pulling the trigger, in both real-world capability and scope.
    - logifail 5y ago
      > NATO already has been supplying advanced man-portable missiles, artillery, intelligence, firearms/machine-guns of all kinds, communications equipment, night-vision systems, etc. Source? A few days ago Zelensky was quoted as saying that "NATO [has] provided nothing but 50 tons of diesel"
      - ISL 5y ago
        https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ukraine-receives-shipment-machine-guns-surveillance-gear-canada-2022-02-19/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ukraine-receives-shipme... https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines-use-of-stinger-and-javelin-missiles-is-outstripping-us-production/?sh=b3f2aff2409e https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines... https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_january_2022_global_security_army_industry/ukraine_to_receive_h-63_d-30_122mm_howitzers_and_javelin_missiles_from_estonia.html https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_january_2022_gl... etcetera.
ISL 5y ago
If Russia takes Ukraine, then Russian forces will directly adjoin the Polish border. It makes sense to attempt to reduce the pretext for any invasion of, or retribution on, Polish soil. If the Americans give the Ukrainians jets and Russia has a problem with it, they can fight it out with the Americans. They're both further-removed and a much larger adversary. Furthermore, it says more-emphatically, "Poland didn't give them those planes, NATO did it together. Don't like it? Come get some."
brimble 5y ago
> 1. This is kind of funny when you think about it. I mean is Russia going to all of a sudden be very confused and think that the Americans gave Ukraine MIG-29s? No. Poland did. What's the point of the roundabout way of doing this? Maybe Poland is worried about intermediate range missiles targeting Polish airbases. But that seems like an escalation that Russia isn't interested in, unless they're in it for all the marbles. I'd guess the US is gonna put some resources into refurbing and arming these planes, so it's simpler to just give them to the US up-front and send them to a US airbase.
- petre 5y ago
  They're most probably already modified to use NATO armament.
  - brimble 5y ago
    If so, IMO that's where things get really interesting. If these things can equip modern NATO weapons, and (here's a big if) if they've been retrofitted with good enough sensor & comm suites to use them, then this transfer takes on a whole new dimension. I've been assuming they're stuck on Soviet weapons and with upgraded, but still outdated, electronics, but if that's not the case, it changes things a lot.
    - rich_sasha 5y ago
      I believe the weapons are Soviet still, in fact they have been harder and harder to source, since Russia (surprise!) didn’t want to sell them to Poland, whose only conceivable aggressor is Russia itself. Comms etc not sure, these must have been somewhat matched.
  - Ancapistani 5y ago
    I don't have a reference handy, but I recall reading that Poland had already begun to transfer R-73 air-to-air missiles to Ukraine. Those are Russian missiles designed for use on the MiG-29.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
hprotagonist 5y ago
and 3. All of NATO has to agree to subsequently hand off the MiGs to Ukraine, so this is a visible commitment (and a free F16 upgrade!), but the jets are just going to sit on the tarmac in Germany for now.
- akmarinov 5y ago
  It doesn’t look like it’s a “free” upgrade, Poland will still have to pay something to get F-16s. Let’s see what they settle on.
abernard1 5y ago
3. The Polish do not want to be involved and are forcing the Americans / Germans to initiate and back up their testy rhetoric. The US state department is saying they were not informed of Poland's decision [1]. Poland has already called out the US state department for "fake news" when the US said Poland was sending those MIGs to Ukraine [2]. [1] https://news.yahoo.com/u-says-wasnt-pre-consulted-202635492.html https://news.yahoo.com/u-says-wasnt-pre-consulted-202635492.... [2] https://twitter.com/PremierRP_en/status/1500345167211114497 https://twitter.com/PremierRP_en/status/1500345167211114497
rasz 5y ago
Poland got F'ed by US multiple times in the past when it came to military contracts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_agreement (/1) This way conditions are all in the open and there is no wiggle room for Blinken to "yes we said we would provide replacement planes, but it was just a preliminary idea blabla" down the road. Poland is next on the Putin list after Ukraine, right there with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. /1 When buying 48 F-16 in 2002 Lockheed Martin declared almost $10B cross military gear imports and technology transfers, then it melted down to $6B with minimal militry gear imports and zero technology transfer, and finally ended up with US taking over mayor Polish military aviation companies - PZL Rzeszow (parts) went to UTC/Pratt&Whitney, PZL Mielec (heli/light transport planes) again to UTC/Sikorski then Lockheed Martin with Poland being charged extra for service parts coming out of those factories.
- wahern 5y ago
  > Poland is next on the Putin list after Ukraine, right there with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. I would guess Moldova, considering that it's not a NATO member and Russia already has a presence as peacekeepers protecting the breakaway province of Transnistria. And Moldova is closer to the Balkan countries that Russia is keen on.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> I mean is Russia going to all of a sudden be very confused and think that the Americans gave Ukraine MIG-29s? No. Poland did. What’s the point of the roundabout way of doing this? The point is that Russia has specifically threatened any country whose territory hostile flights are deployed out of and, implicitly, particularly the specific bases; in case the direct flight of the planes to Ukraine is viewed as hostile, Poland wants them deployed out of a US base in Germany, not out of Poland. > But that seems like an escalation that Russia isn’t interested in, unless they’re in it for all the marbles. Sure, but Russia being in it for all the marbles isn’t a possibility that can be ruled out, and neither is miscalculation if that is not the case, and neither (if you are Poland) can the possibility of a failure or insufficiency of NATO response to an attack on Poland be ignored. The risk of Russia thinking they can get away with it, and the risk of an inadequate NATO response, and the risk to Poland in any circumstance are all mitigated by moving the focus to a US base in Germany.

ldoughty 5y ago

My understanding is: 1. Ukraine forces know how to pilot MIG29s 2. Poland has MIG-29s, USA does not 3. Poland has time to retrain on newer equipment, Ukraine does not 4. Poland doesn't want to be defenseless, if it gives aircraft to Ukraine. So Poland gives Ukraine exactly what they need right now... USA agrees to aid Poland in replacement aircraft. This isn't about "USA didn't give Ukraine aircraft", Poland did! It's about getting Ukraine the aircraft they know how to use right now

ckozlowski 5y ago
To add to this and the comment above: Poland also flies the F-16. There'd been some commentary earlier in which Poland said they'd be willing to divest themselves of their MiGs if they can get F-16s to replace them in order to maintain their force level requirements. My guess is that this transfer of the MiGs to the U.S. is to facilitate this exchange in a rapid manner that would take too long through regular procurement processes.
glfharris 5y ago
This is how I see it too. It'll be obvious to anyone where those aircraft have come from. Poland isn't going to deflect responsibility this way. Poland can't afford to donate it's air power so readily, but the USA allows them to with this move. It will also shift their military to be more on spec with other NATO countries.

melling 5y ago

Poland is part of NATO. Doubtful that they would be targeted.

justinhj 5y ago

Poland is side stepping the blatant risk of escalating to a war with Russia and/or WW3 by trying to move the Migs into Ukraine itself, but it still wants the F16s that the US is offering. This way it moves the problem to the US by having the planes go West to Germany instead and let Biden figure it out. I'm interested in how the US plans to get Migs into Ukraine in a way that isn't an act of war.

logifail 5y ago
> I'm interested in how the US plans to get Migs into Ukraine in a way that isn't an act of war. This. Biden said on 24 Feb that the US will be 'involved' if [Putin] moves into NATO countries. Now we're to believe NATO wants to move Migs into Ukraine? This isn't [yet] NATO vs Russia. Let's not make it that.
- ISL 5y ago
  NATO already has been supplying advanced man-portable missiles, artillery, intelligence, firearms/machine-guns of all kinds, communications equipment, night-vision systems, etc. From that angle, an aircraft is only a small step upward. It really does make a difference who is flying the plane or pulling the trigger, in both real-world capability and scope.
  - logifail 5y ago
    > NATO already has been supplying advanced man-portable missiles, artillery, intelligence, firearms/machine-guns of all kinds, communications equipment, night-vision systems, etc. Source? A few days ago Zelensky was quoted as saying that "NATO [has] provided nothing but 50 tons of diesel"
    - ISL 5y ago
      https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ukraine-receives-shipment-machine-guns-surveillance-gear-canada-2022-02-19/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ukraine-receives-shipme... https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines-use-of-stinger-and-javelin-missiles-is-outstripping-us-production/?sh=b3f2aff2409e https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines... https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_january_2022_global_security_army_industry/ukraine_to_receive_h-63_d-30_122mm_howitzers_and_javelin_missiles_from_estonia.html https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_january_2022_gl... etcetera.

ISL 5y ago

If Russia takes Ukraine, then Russian forces will directly adjoin the Polish border. It makes sense to attempt to reduce the pretext for any invasion of, or retribution on, Polish soil. If the Americans give the Ukrainians jets and Russia has a problem with it, they can fight it out with the Americans. They're both further-removed and a much larger adversary. Furthermore, it says more-emphatically, "Poland didn't give them those planes, NATO did it together. Don't like it? Come get some."

brimble 5y ago

> 1. This is kind of funny when you think about it. I mean is Russia going to all of a sudden be very confused and think that the Americans gave Ukraine MIG-29s? No. Poland did. What's the point of the roundabout way of doing this? Maybe Poland is worried about intermediate range missiles targeting Polish airbases. But that seems like an escalation that Russia isn't interested in, unless they're in it for all the marbles. I'd guess the US is gonna put some resources into refurbing and arming these planes, so it's simpler to just give them to the US up-front and send them to a US airbase.

petre 5y ago
They're most probably already modified to use NATO armament.
- brimble 5y ago
  If so, IMO that's where things get really interesting. If these things can equip modern NATO weapons, and (here's a big if) if they've been retrofitted with good enough sensor & comm suites to use them, then this transfer takes on a whole new dimension. I've been assuming they're stuck on Soviet weapons and with upgraded, but still outdated, electronics, but if that's not the case, it changes things a lot.
  - rich_sasha 5y ago
    I believe the weapons are Soviet still, in fact they have been harder and harder to source, since Russia (surprise!) didn’t want to sell them to Poland, whose only conceivable aggressor is Russia itself. Comms etc not sure, these must have been somewhat matched.
- Ancapistani 5y ago
  I don't have a reference handy, but I recall reading that Poland had already begun to transfer R-73 air-to-air missiles to Ukraine. Those are Russian missiles designed for use on the MiG-29.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

hprotagonist 5y ago

and 3. All of NATO has to agree to subsequently hand off the MiGs to Ukraine, so this is a visible commitment (and a free F16 upgrade!), but the jets are just going to sit on the tarmac in Germany for now.

akmarinov 5y ago
It doesn’t look like it’s a “free” upgrade, Poland will still have to pay something to get F-16s. Let’s see what they settle on.

abernard1 5y ago

3. The Polish do not want to be involved and are forcing the Americans / Germans to initiate and back up their testy rhetoric. The US state department is saying they were not informed of Poland's decision [1]. Poland has already called out the US state department for "fake news" when the US said Poland was sending those MIGs to Ukraine [2]. [1] https://news.yahoo.com/u-says-wasnt-pre-consulted-202635492.html https://news.yahoo.com/u-says-wasnt-pre-consulted-202635492.... [2] https://twitter.com/PremierRP_en/status/1500345167211114497 https://twitter.com/PremierRP_en/status/1500345167211114497

rasz 5y ago

Poland got F'ed by US multiple times in the past when it came to military contracts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_agreement (/1) This way conditions are all in the open and there is no wiggle room for Blinken to "yes we said we would provide replacement planes, but it was just a preliminary idea blabla" down the road. Poland is next on the Putin list after Ukraine, right there with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. /1 When buying 48 F-16 in 2002 Lockheed Martin declared almost $10B cross military gear imports and technology transfers, then it melted down to $6B with minimal militry gear imports and zero technology transfer, and finally ended up with US taking over mayor Polish military aviation companies - PZL Rzeszow (parts) went to UTC/Pratt&Whitney, PZL Mielec (heli/light transport planes) again to UTC/Sikorski then Lockheed Martin with Poland being charged extra for service parts coming out of those factories.

wahern 5y ago
> Poland is next on the Putin list after Ukraine, right there with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. I would guess Moldova, considering that it's not a NATO member and Russia already has a presence as peacekeepers protecting the breakaway province of Transnistria. And Moldova is closer to the Balkan countries that Russia is keen on.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> I mean is Russia going to all of a sudden be very confused and think that the Americans gave Ukraine MIG-29s? No. Poland did. What’s the point of the roundabout way of doing this? The point is that Russia has specifically threatened any country whose territory hostile flights are deployed out of and, implicitly, particularly the specific bases; in case the direct flight of the planes to Ukraine is viewed as hostile, Poland wants them deployed out of a US base in Germany, not out of Poland. > But that seems like an escalation that Russia isn’t interested in, unless they’re in it for all the marbles. Sure, but Russia being in it for all the marbles isn’t a possibility that can be ruled out, and neither is miscalculation if that is not the case, and neither (if you are Poland) can the possibility of a failure or insufficiency of NATO response to an attack on Poland be ignored. The risk of Russia thinking they can get away with it, and the risk of an inadequate NATO response, and the risk to Poland in any circumstance are all mitigated by moving the focus to a US base in Germany.