4 ms·

But Serbian president said we won’t impose any sanctions toward Russia. On the other hand, our president is not to be trusted with anything.

stjohnswarts 5y ago
As an American I can relate the same feeling with our previous President. He was a dumpster fire.
- grujicd 5y ago
  On positive note, all other presidents in all other countries in the world suddenly looked more thoughtful and more reasonable while you had your 4 year show.
- Ourgon 5y ago
  There's just that thing that had your previous president still been in charge we would most likely not be facing these problems right now. Most of your compatriots seem to agree with this statement [1], what do you think? Were the mean tweets a bigger danger to the world than what is waiting for us now? [1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/26/poll-trump-russia-ukraine-white-house https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/26/poll-trump-r...
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    Why do you think an opinion poll of the general public has any value here? Poll the public on general relativity or quantum physics and they’ll likely get it wrong. The same is probably true for complex geopolitical questions.
    - Ourgon 5y ago
      Because the general public is supposed to be the people who get to vote for your president? The US is, after all, supposed to be a representative republic - that "representative" stands for "representing the general public". I thought that would be clear without the need for any explanation. Maybe the fact that explanation is needed gives an indication of the sorry state of the democratic process.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        Polling the public is a great way to see who might win an election. It’s an insanely silly way of assessing “what would Putin have done in an alternate timeline”.
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    He would have been -more- likely to invade Ukraine as Putin knows that Trump barely cares about the NATO countries, he certainly wouldn't have cared about Putin razing Ukraine to the ground. I will agree that nuclear war is certainly less likely if you let Putin do whatever he wants.
    - pkt_nspktr 5y ago
      If that was -more- likely to occur under Trump than Biden, why did it not? Based on actual historical evidence, Putin is more likely to invade Ukraine when Biden is in office (both as VP and POTUS) than when Trump was, regardless of whatever nonsense Trump was tweeting.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        Since we're wildly speculating on N=1 scenarios with no control group... Perhaps the invasion was planned for a second term, and COVID threw a giant wrench in the works.
        pkt_nspktr 5y ago
        Will four data points work? N=1, 2008. Russia invades/attacks Georgia[1]. US President: George W. Bush; US Vice President: Dick Cheney. N=2, 2014. Russia annexes Crimea[2]. US President: Barack Obama; US Vice President: Joe Biden. N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine. US President: Donald Trump; US Vice President: Mike Pence. N=4, 2022. Russia invades Ukraine[3]. US President: Joe Biden; US Vice President: Kamala Harris. Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, regardless of whether we liked Trump's manner of diplomacy or not. And Biden was in office during the annexation of Crimea, so he can be the "control group" for pre- and post-Trump policies toward Russia. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... -edited for readability.
  - Ancapistani 5y ago
    I don't think we would be facing these problems, but I'm also objective enough to admit that we would likely be facing others. On foreign policy - specifically, with regard to the tone of the US's involvement in NATO - I believe Trump was much better than Biden. On other issues, Trump was often... "suboptimal". The biggest issue I have with Trump is what the person you're replying to said: "He was a dumpster fire." It's difficult to lead a country when the very tone of your rhetoric angers half of it. He anger the Democrats enough that many voters would have elected _anyone_ to replace him. On the other hand, Trump's bombastic personality and over-the-top rhetoric is probably the only way a Republican could have been elected in 2016. I'm not sure it was a solvable problem.
  - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
    Has everyone here forgotten that the reason Trump was impeached was because he was withholding support from Ukraine to Blackmail Zelensky? Has everyone already forgotten that he has deep russian ties and admires Putin? Everything written is in such contradiction to reality outside my window, I can't help but wonder what are you smoking?
DyslexicAtheist 5y ago
Guess it will be very hard for Serbia to continue doing business with a country that is about to be bankrupt in 8-12 weeks. Even a crime lord like Vucic will need to keep his gang fed. He has some hard decisions to make about whether backing RU because all their talks for EU membership will be in vain. This situation might force Serbia not to move forward with EU membership and EU themselves might become more aware of the Russian problem that manifest itself if Serbia would eventually join. [1] https://balkaninsight.com/2021/02/16/in-serbia-states-ties-to-crime-become-hard-to-miss/ https://balkaninsight.com/2021/02/16/in-serbia-states-ties-t... [2] https://www.occrp.org/en/openlux/serbian-presidents-best-man-linked-to-businessman-with-organized-crime-ties https://www.occrp.org/en/openlux/serbian-presidents-best-man...
- grujicd 5y ago
  Talks for EU membership are not going anywhere for two decades. Not much to threaten Serbia with in this regard. I think Serbia's regime prefers this status-quo too, since it's easier to have authoritarian government without pesky EU rules about freedom of media, independence of courts, corruption, etc. Seems that EU prefers this status quo as well. Trade with Russia is not that significant for Serbia, 5-8%. And we mostly import oil and gas. As long as EU keeps buying that from Russia there are no issues there. We export food to Russia, and we can probably have a barter trade if banking system is completely cut off. All of this is pretty much insignificant and mostly about diplomatic "are you with or against us". Serbia is too small to make any kind of real difference either way.

stjohnswarts 5y ago

As an American I can relate the same feeling with our previous President. He was a dumpster fire.

grujicd 5y ago
On positive note, all other presidents in all other countries in the world suddenly looked more thoughtful and more reasonable while you had your 4 year show.
Ourgon 5y ago
There's just that thing that had your previous president still been in charge we would most likely not be facing these problems right now. Most of your compatriots seem to agree with this statement [1], what do you think? Were the mean tweets a bigger danger to the world than what is waiting for us now? [1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/26/poll-trump-russia-ukraine-white-house https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/26/poll-trump-r...
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  Why do you think an opinion poll of the general public has any value here? Poll the public on general relativity or quantum physics and they’ll likely get it wrong. The same is probably true for complex geopolitical questions.
  - Ourgon 5y ago
    Because the general public is supposed to be the people who get to vote for your president? The US is, after all, supposed to be a representative republic - that "representative" stands for "representing the general public". I thought that would be clear without the need for any explanation. Maybe the fact that explanation is needed gives an indication of the sorry state of the democratic process.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      Polling the public is a great way to see who might win an election. It’s an insanely silly way of assessing “what would Putin have done in an alternate timeline”.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  He would have been -more- likely to invade Ukraine as Putin knows that Trump barely cares about the NATO countries, he certainly wouldn't have cared about Putin razing Ukraine to the ground. I will agree that nuclear war is certainly less likely if you let Putin do whatever he wants.
  - pkt_nspktr 5y ago
    If that was -more- likely to occur under Trump than Biden, why did it not? Based on actual historical evidence, Putin is more likely to invade Ukraine when Biden is in office (both as VP and POTUS) than when Trump was, regardless of whatever nonsense Trump was tweeting.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      Since we're wildly speculating on N=1 scenarios with no control group... Perhaps the invasion was planned for a second term, and COVID threw a giant wrench in the works.
      - pkt_nspktr 5y ago
        Will four data points work? N=1, 2008. Russia invades/attacks Georgia[1]. US President: George W. Bush; US Vice President: Dick Cheney. N=2, 2014. Russia annexes Crimea[2]. US President: Barack Obama; US Vice President: Joe Biden. N=3, 2017-2021. No invasion of Ukraine. US President: Donald Trump; US Vice President: Mike Pence. N=4, 2022. Russia invades Ukraine[3]. US President: Joe Biden; US Vice President: Kamala Harris. Since Russia/Putin has attacked its western neighbors during three of the last four US president's terms, it appears Trump constrained Putin's expansionism, regardless of whether we liked Trump's manner of diplomacy or not. And Biden was in office during the annexation of Crimea, so he can be the "control group" for pre- and post-Trump policies toward Russia. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... -edited for readability.
- Ancapistani 5y ago
  I don't think we would be facing these problems, but I'm also objective enough to admit that we would likely be facing others. On foreign policy - specifically, with regard to the tone of the US's involvement in NATO - I believe Trump was much better than Biden. On other issues, Trump was often... "suboptimal". The biggest issue I have with Trump is what the person you're replying to said: "He was a dumpster fire." It's difficult to lead a country when the very tone of your rhetoric angers half of it. He anger the Democrats enough that many voters would have elected _anyone_ to replace him. On the other hand, Trump's bombastic personality and over-the-top rhetoric is probably the only way a Republican could have been elected in 2016. I'm not sure it was a solvable problem.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  Has everyone here forgotten that the reason Trump was impeached was because he was withholding support from Ukraine to Blackmail Zelensky? Has everyone already forgotten that he has deep russian ties and admires Putin? Everything written is in such contradiction to reality outside my window, I can't help but wonder what are you smoking?

DyslexicAtheist 5y ago

Guess it will be very hard for Serbia to continue doing business with a country that is about to be bankrupt in 8-12 weeks. Even a crime lord like Vucic will need to keep his gang fed. He has some hard decisions to make about whether backing RU because all their talks for EU membership will be in vain. This situation might force Serbia not to move forward with EU membership and EU themselves might become more aware of the Russian problem that manifest itself if Serbia would eventually join. [1] https://balkaninsight.com/2021/02/16/in-serbia-states-ties-to-crime-become-hard-to-miss/ https://balkaninsight.com/2021/02/16/in-serbia-states-ties-t... [2] https://www.occrp.org/en/openlux/serbian-presidents-best-man-linked-to-businessman-with-organized-crime-ties https://www.occrp.org/en/openlux/serbian-presidents-best-man...

grujicd 5y ago
Talks for EU membership are not going anywhere for two decades. Not much to threaten Serbia with in this regard. I think Serbia's regime prefers this status-quo too, since it's easier to have authoritarian government without pesky EU rules about freedom of media, independence of courts, corruption, etc. Seems that EU prefers this status quo as well. Trade with Russia is not that significant for Serbia, 5-8%. And we mostly import oil and gas. As long as EU keeps buying that from Russia there are no issues there. We export food to Russia, and we can probably have a barter trade if banking system is completely cut off. All of this is pretty much insignificant and mostly about diplomatic "are you with or against us". Serbia is too small to make any kind of real difference either way.