It's a fact that Russia's military is still superior to Ukraine's. A plausible outcome of the current war is * Ukraine formally acknowledging its loss of Crime

It's a fact that Russia's military is still superior to Ukraine's. A plausible outcome of the current war is * Ukraine formally acknowledging its loss of Crimea and the Russian-heavy east, all under Russian occupation since 2014 * Ukraine formally declaring neutrality (i.e., no joining NATO) * Rump Ukraine's borders formally guaranteed by Russia/US/NATO This gives Putin something that he can plausibly sell to Russians as a win, and codifies US/Western military intervention on Ukraine's behalf (not just the current flow of supplies) from further Russian revanchism, while not losing any/much territory that wasn't already out of Ukrainian hands before the invasion began. Now, if the indications that Russian logistics have broken down and Russia's losses are unsustainable are true, that's a different story. But I am not ready to conclude that yet.