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Funny that they wanted the MIGs to go to Germany first and then given to the USA, in exchange for replacement jets. It looks like a very thinly veiled attempt

by awb 5y ago

Funny that they wanted the MIGs to go to Germany first and then given to the USA, in exchange for replacement jets. It looks like a very thinly veiled attempt at denying direct involvement. Everyone knows those MIGs are going to be given to Ukraine.

Arnt 5y ago
You can also interpret it as a way of saying "we're either in this together, or not".
isbvhodnvemrwvn 5y ago
They come from Germany in the first place, Germany wanted to get rid of migs in early 2000s so they donated them to Poland for 1€.
- jwilk 5y ago
  https://defence24.pl/technologie/kto-przekaze-ukrainie-swoje-migi-29-analiza https://defence24.pl/technologie/kto-przekaze-ukrainie-swoje... says Poland is not going to give away the German ones: > The former German planes are not only the most worn out, but also have been adapted by the Luftwaffe to the western standard, so it would be more difficult for Ukrainian pilots to control
mindslight 5y ago
Scenario: Previously-Polish now-Ukrainian MIGs sitting at an airbase in eastern Poland waiting to be picked up by Ukrainian pilots. Russia sends a few longer range cruise missiles at the base, destroying the Ukrainian planes. What is NATO's next move? Putin wants to test boundaries to find spongy contours. The more clear cut a situation is, the better.
- karpierz 5y ago
  > Russia sends a few longer range cruise missiles at the base, to destroy the planes that were already part of the war. And kill NATO personnel in the airbase. Russia has now murdered American and Polish soldiers on Polish soil. It's pretty clear cut what happens next.
  - mindslight 5y ago
    > It's pretty clear cut what happens next. No, it's not. Does NATO let the ICBMs fly? Does NATO switch to conventional war mobilization and march into Ukraine? Shoot some conventional missiles at Russian targets in Ukraine? How about if Russia issues a statement that the strikes were against legitimate Ukrainian targets, they do not intend to attack any more NATO territory, and they will pay reparations for Polish casualties? If Russian military activity demonstrates an adherence to that statement, it technically renders article 5 mutual self defense less applicable. To avoid escalation, there is give and take at any level of aggression, just as when a fighter jet violates airspace. A posteri the destruction of Ukrainian jets at a Polish airfield, the desire to avoid nuclear war remains the same. The best thing is to avoid getting into the situation in the first place - by making attacking the in-transit Ukrainian jets a direct attack on the largest NATO power, the US.
    - 323 5y ago
      > desire to avoid nuclear war remains the same If we apply this logic fully, Russia can invade Poland, Germany, France, all of Europe, and nobody will dare defend out of fear of nuclear war.
      - mindslight 5y ago
        If you shoehorn the scenario into binary reasoning, you can justify either extreme, yes.
        323 5y ago
        Assuming that Putin will start nuclear war over 30 planes is also binary reasoning.
        mindslight 5y ago
        Yes, binary reasoning that you're continuing to engage in by framing it as Putin automatically starting a nuclear war. I know we want to think that NATO deterrence is absolute, but when it comes down to it any response will be moderated by possible counter-responses.
- bewaretheirs 5y ago
  Ramstein is in Germany, not Poland.
  - mindslight 5y ago
    Yes, my point is that the actual actions are to avoid the scenario I laid out.
- 323 5y ago
  > What is NATO's next move? NATO reciprocates hitting back with cruise missiles the originating place.
- stickfigure 5y ago
  NATO article 5 gets invoked, and we're all at war.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  If Russia launches cruise missiles into Poland then their Ukraine effort will be immediately overrun with NATO and US troops, tanks, and aerial strikes and will have to retreat immediately. Russia can't win this unless they launch nukes and then it ends for all of us.
david422 5y ago
That and the fact that the US statement was that it was a Polish decision as a sovereign nation to donate planes if they so choose, but the US would support whichever decision they took. Nobody wants to technically be the excuse Putin needs to use his nukes or whatever he's going to do next. But what difference does it make, Putin is going to do whatever he wants, trying to tiptoe around these lines drawn in the sand isn't going to change things.
rasz 5y ago
Poland learned how to deal with weasel US diplomacy. Nothing is set in stone, not even a signed piece of paper (Budapest Memorandum anyone?). Actions, not words matter. When you read https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-admin-talks-poland-provide-warplanes-ukraine-rcna18876 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-admin-talks-polan... >The Biden administration is holding talks with Poland about a possible deal to help provide Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine, a White House spokesperson said. >The deal would involve Poland donating its old Russian-made MiG fighters to Ukraine, and then replacing them with the purchase of U.S.-made F-16 jets. >“We are working with the Poles on this issue and consulting with the rest of our NATO allies,” a White House spokesperson said. >Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday confirmed that the discussions are underway but said the timing is still unclear. and at the same time those very "talks" are Blinken merely suggesting the possibility of working something later down the road "but we must act now", and you already got screwed by US to the tune of $10B on military deals (initial F-16 purchase), then you know to tread carefully. Not to mention surprised pikachu face https://mobile.twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1501292504007720962 https://mobile.twitter.com/ak_mack/status/150129250400772096... >Undersecretary of State Toria Nuland, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, just said this statement was not pre-consulted with the U.S. Seems to have come as a bit of a surprise." So Biden officials leak "advanced talks" to the press while Undersecretary of State doesnt know anything about it and is not in the loop. EDIT: And there it is https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2960180/statement-by-pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-kirby-on-security-assistance-to-uk/ https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/296018... here come the weasel words: "We will continue consulting with our Allies and partners about our ongoing security assistance to Ukraine, because, in fact, Poland's proposal shows just some of the complexities this issue presents. We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland's proposal is a tenable one." Typical US goading others to do the dirty work, but when push comes to shove "its complicated and untenable"

by awb 5y ago

Arnt 5y ago

You can also interpret it as a way of saying "we're either in this together, or not".

isbvhodnvemrwvn 5y ago

They come from Germany in the first place, Germany wanted to get rid of migs in early 2000s so they donated them to Poland for 1€.

jwilk 5y ago
https://defence24.pl/technologie/kto-przekaze-ukrainie-swoje-migi-29-analiza https://defence24.pl/technologie/kto-przekaze-ukrainie-swoje... says Poland is not going to give away the German ones: > The former German planes are not only the most worn out, but also have been adapted by the Luftwaffe to the western standard, so it would be more difficult for Ukrainian pilots to control

mindslight 5y ago

Scenario: Previously-Polish now-Ukrainian MIGs sitting at an airbase in eastern Poland waiting to be picked up by Ukrainian pilots. Russia sends a few longer range cruise missiles at the base, destroying the Ukrainian planes. What is NATO's next move? Putin wants to test boundaries to find spongy contours. The more clear cut a situation is, the better.

karpierz 5y ago
> Russia sends a few longer range cruise missiles at the base, to destroy the planes that were already part of the war. And kill NATO personnel in the airbase. Russia has now murdered American and Polish soldiers on Polish soil. It's pretty clear cut what happens next.
- mindslight 5y ago
  > It's pretty clear cut what happens next. No, it's not. Does NATO let the ICBMs fly? Does NATO switch to conventional war mobilization and march into Ukraine? Shoot some conventional missiles at Russian targets in Ukraine? How about if Russia issues a statement that the strikes were against legitimate Ukrainian targets, they do not intend to attack any more NATO territory, and they will pay reparations for Polish casualties? If Russian military activity demonstrates an adherence to that statement, it technically renders article 5 mutual self defense less applicable. To avoid escalation, there is give and take at any level of aggression, just as when a fighter jet violates airspace. A posteri the destruction of Ukrainian jets at a Polish airfield, the desire to avoid nuclear war remains the same. The best thing is to avoid getting into the situation in the first place - by making attacking the in-transit Ukrainian jets a direct attack on the largest NATO power, the US.
  - 323 5y ago
    > desire to avoid nuclear war remains the same If we apply this logic fully, Russia can invade Poland, Germany, France, all of Europe, and nobody will dare defend out of fear of nuclear war.
    - mindslight 5y ago
      If you shoehorn the scenario into binary reasoning, you can justify either extreme, yes.
      - 323 5y ago
        Assuming that Putin will start nuclear war over 30 planes is also binary reasoning.
        mindslight 5y ago
        Yes, binary reasoning that you're continuing to engage in by framing it as Putin automatically starting a nuclear war. I know we want to think that NATO deterrence is absolute, but when it comes down to it any response will be moderated by possible counter-responses.
bewaretheirs 5y ago
Ramstein is in Germany, not Poland.
- mindslight 5y ago
  Yes, my point is that the actual actions are to avoid the scenario I laid out.
323 5y ago
> What is NATO's next move? NATO reciprocates hitting back with cruise missiles the originating place.
stickfigure 5y ago
NATO article 5 gets invoked, and we're all at war.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
If Russia launches cruise missiles into Poland then their Ukraine effort will be immediately overrun with NATO and US troops, tanks, and aerial strikes and will have to retreat immediately. Russia can't win this unless they launch nukes and then it ends for all of us.

david422 5y ago

That and the fact that the US statement was that it was a Polish decision as a sovereign nation to donate planes if they so choose, but the US would support whichever decision they took. Nobody wants to technically be the excuse Putin needs to use his nukes or whatever he's going to do next. But what difference does it make, Putin is going to do whatever he wants, trying to tiptoe around these lines drawn in the sand isn't going to change things.

rasz 5y ago

Poland learned how to deal with weasel US diplomacy. Nothing is set in stone, not even a signed piece of paper (Budapest Memorandum anyone?). Actions, not words matter. When you read https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-admin-talks-poland-provide-warplanes-ukraine-rcna18876 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-admin-talks-polan... >The Biden administration is holding talks with Poland about a possible deal to help provide Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine, a White House spokesperson said. >The deal would involve Poland donating its old Russian-made MiG fighters to Ukraine, and then replacing them with the purchase of U.S.-made F-16 jets. >“We are working with the Poles on this issue and consulting with the rest of our NATO allies,” a White House spokesperson said. >Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday confirmed that the discussions are underway but said the timing is still unclear. and at the same time those very "talks" are Blinken merely suggesting the possibility of working something later down the road "but we must act now", and you already got screwed by US to the tune of $10B on military deals (initial F-16 purchase), then you know to tread carefully. Not to mention surprised pikachu face https://mobile.twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1501292504007720962 https://mobile.twitter.com/ak_mack/status/150129250400772096... >Undersecretary of State Toria Nuland, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, just said this statement was not pre-consulted with the U.S. Seems to have come as a bit of a surprise." So Biden officials leak "advanced talks" to the press while Undersecretary of State doesnt know anything about it and is not in the loop. EDIT: And there it is https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2960180/statement-by-pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-kirby-on-security-assistance-to-uk/ https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/296018... here come the weasel words: "We will continue consulting with our Allies and partners about our ongoing security assistance to Ukraine, because, in fact, Poland's proposal shows just some of the complexities this issue presents. We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland's proposal is a tenable one." Typical US goading others to do the dirty work, but when push comes to shove "its complicated and untenable"