8 ms·

Really? It looks like the complete opposite happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/media/File:US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg

Really? It looks like the complete opposite happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/media/File:US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/me...

ch4s3 5y ago
Yes, 2015 was about on par with 1967[1] in terms of property and violent crime. Incarceration is not what I was talking about. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Property_Crime_Rates_in_the_United_States.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/me...
- ElephantsMyAnus 5y ago
  But you agree that it needs an explanation, right? You gloat about a dramatic decrease in crime, yet the number of inmates increased tenfold over that time period.
  - ch4s3 5y ago
    See my other reply[1]. I'm not gloating, simply conveying facts about numbers. The increase in incarceration is mostly due to tougher sentences for non-violent crime. [1]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30605054 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30605054
    - ElephantsMyAnus 5y ago
      Maybe the tougher sentences worked? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/media/File%3AHomicide_rates1900-2001.jpg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/...
      - ch4s3 5y ago
        Then why did Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan see the same drops in crime? They all lock up a minuscule fraction of their populations by comparison and had larger or similar drops in crime. The timing is also wrong, the drop in crime started before incarceration ramped up. Also as I mentioned the plurality of incarceration is for nonviolent crime, a lot of which is simple drug possession.
        ElephantsMyAnus 5y ago
        They didn't: https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Homicide_Rate_in_Norway.svg https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Homicide_Rate_in_N... https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/01/14/national/crime-legal/number-crimes-japan-falls-postwar-low-2015/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/01/14/national/crime-...
        ch4s3 5y ago
        The Norway peak in 2011 is entirely from the Utøya mass homicide. Japan follows a similar curve despite starting and peaking later, 70% of those crimes for the whole period are nonviolent petty thefts. My mistake in including Japan doesn’t support either point your tried to make. Neither place has mass incarceration.
        ElephantsMyAnus 5y ago
        But there is no decline.
        ch4s3 5y ago
        The Nordic countries[1] all peak around '86-'92. Homicide is down world-wide since 1990[2]. This is a weird argument to make. I've never even encountered anyone who disagreed with this who has even a passing familiarity with criminology, economics, or broad societal trends. I'm not even sure what you're actually arguing here. You're coming across like a contrarian who is frantically googling for a counter point. Crime in Germany peaked in 1992[3]. Italy 1991 [4] Canada also 1991 [5] [1] https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2%3A526664/FULLTEXT01.pdf https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2%3A526664/FULLTEX... [2] https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Crime_drop https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Crime_drop [3] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018&locations=DE&start=1990&view=chart&year=1990 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018... [4] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018&locations=IT&start=1990&view=chart&year=1990 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018... [5] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018&locations=CA&start=1990&view=chart&year=1990 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018...
ch4s3 5y ago
To respond to your other comment, homicide rates were falling starting around 1990, and the prison population exploded after that. Something else must be going one here. According to the Federal Bureau of Prisons[1] as of last month 45.3% of the total US prison population is there for non-violent drug offenses. Only 3.1% is for homicide, assault, or kidnapping. In the late 80s and early 90s lots of states and the federal government instituted really draconian sentencing laws. So yeah, violent crime is WAY down from 1990, drug arrests have been soaring since. [1]https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen...

ch4s3 5y ago

Yes, 2015 was about on par with 1967[1] in terms of property and violent crime. Incarceration is not what I was talking about. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Property_Crime_Rates_in_the_United_States.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/me...

ElephantsMyAnus 5y ago
But you agree that it needs an explanation, right? You gloat about a dramatic decrease in crime, yet the number of inmates increased tenfold over that time period.
- ch4s3 5y ago
  See my other reply[1]. I'm not gloating, simply conveying facts about numbers. The increase in incarceration is mostly due to tougher sentences for non-violent crime. [1]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30605054 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30605054
  - ElephantsMyAnus 5y ago
    Maybe the tougher sentences worked? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/media/File%3AHomicide_rates1900-2001.jpg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/...
    - ch4s3 5y ago
      Then why did Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan see the same drops in crime? They all lock up a minuscule fraction of their populations by comparison and had larger or similar drops in crime. The timing is also wrong, the drop in crime started before incarceration ramped up. Also as I mentioned the plurality of incarceration is for nonviolent crime, a lot of which is simple drug possession.
      - ElephantsMyAnus 5y ago
        They didn't: https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Homicide_Rate_in_Norway.svg https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Homicide_Rate_in_N... https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/01/14/national/crime-legal/number-crimes-japan-falls-postwar-low-2015/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/01/14/national/crime-...
        ch4s3 5y ago
        The Norway peak in 2011 is entirely from the Utøya mass homicide. Japan follows a similar curve despite starting and peaking later, 70% of those crimes for the whole period are nonviolent petty thefts. My mistake in including Japan doesn’t support either point your tried to make. Neither place has mass incarceration.
        ElephantsMyAnus 5y ago
        But there is no decline.
        ch4s3 5y ago
        The Nordic countries[1] all peak around '86-'92. Homicide is down world-wide since 1990[2]. This is a weird argument to make. I've never even encountered anyone who disagreed with this who has even a passing familiarity with criminology, economics, or broad societal trends. I'm not even sure what you're actually arguing here. You're coming across like a contrarian who is frantically googling for a counter point. Crime in Germany peaked in 1992[3]. Italy 1991 [4] Canada also 1991 [5] [1] https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2%3A526664/FULLTEXT01.pdf https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2%3A526664/FULLTEX... [2] https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Crime_drop https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Crime_drop [3] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018&locations=DE&start=1990&view=chart&year=1990 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018... [4] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018&locations=IT&start=1990&view=chart&year=1990 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018... [5] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018&locations=CA&start=1990&view=chart&year=1990 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2018...

ch4s3 5y ago

To respond to your other comment, homicide rates were falling starting around 1990, and the prison population exploded after that. Something else must be going one here. According to the Federal Bureau of Prisons[1] as of last month 45.3% of the total US prison population is there for non-violent drug offenses. Only 3.1% is for homicide, assault, or kidnapping. In the late 80s and early 90s lots of states and the federal government instituted really draconian sentencing laws. So yeah, violent crime is WAY down from 1990, drug arrests have been soaring since. [1]https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen...