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If Russia can get them to give up NATO and EU ambitions, and get them to start supplying water to Crimea, they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukrain

If Russia can get them to give up NATO and EU ambitions, and get them to start supplying water to Crimea, they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means (as they already tried once, and as Belarus has gone). Conceding on that, at this point, is just delaying the Russian takeover somewhat. If Russia can't get that out of them, I expect them to demand such large territorial concessions that what's left will have, at best, 1/2 the GDP it used to (not even counting damage from the war). That diminished state will go on to head toward EU and/or NATO membership, but it won't represent the kind of relief valve from European dependence on Russia that a free and prosperous united Ukraine might (which is a big part of why Russia wants to carve them up or conquer them to begin with).

blibble 5y ago
> they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means when will this be exactly? Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports their military ambitions are now finished, permanently
- brimble 5y ago
  Multilateral agreements as part of a peace settlement are their most likely way out of the economic pain they're in now—removal of sanctions and normalization of relations with the West part of the peace agreement. I agree that their long term prospects, having blundered so badly, are now dim, but I think if they can get the right concessions out of Ukraine they'll still have salvaged a lot of their immediate goals from launching the war (probably at far too high a cost for it to have been worth it, yes, but at least it won't be a complete failure) and be in a decent position to realize further expansion before the end of their fossil fuel fortunes arrives.
- pmoriarty 5y ago
  "Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports" China will buy Russia's fossil fuels.
  - blibble 5y ago
    and as a monopsony they'll set the price
    - ed_balls 5y ago
      and mining in Siberia will be price competitive for max 15 years.
- euroderf 5y ago
  > their military ambitions are now finished, permanently I'd like to think that if Russia fails to subjugate and absorb Ukraine then it will put an end to Russian dreams of restoring empire, for at least one generation and perhaps for longer. Recalling Zbigniew Brzeziński "It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire."
pmoriarty 5y ago
"it won't represent the kind of relief valve from European dependence on Russia that a free and prosperous united Ukraine might" The EU and NATO are voluntarily breaking away from dependence on Russia on many fronts as we speak. Russia's invasion of Ukraine galvanized this process. Peace would have been far less devastating to all the countries involved.

blibble 5y ago

> they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means when will this be exactly? Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports their military ambitions are now finished, permanently

brimble 5y ago
Multilateral agreements as part of a peace settlement are their most likely way out of the economic pain they're in now—removal of sanctions and normalization of relations with the West part of the peace agreement. I agree that their long term prospects, having blundered so badly, are now dim, but I think if they can get the right concessions out of Ukraine they'll still have salvaged a lot of their immediate goals from launching the war (probably at far too high a cost for it to have been worth it, yes, but at least it won't be a complete failure) and be in a decent position to realize further expansion before the end of their fossil fuel fortunes arrives.
pmoriarty 5y ago
"Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports" China will buy Russia's fossil fuels.
- blibble 5y ago
  and as a monopsony they'll set the price
  - ed_balls 5y ago
    and mining in Siberia will be price competitive for max 15 years.
euroderf 5y ago
> their military ambitions are now finished, permanently I'd like to think that if Russia fails to subjugate and absorb Ukraine then it will put an end to Russian dreams of restoring empire, for at least one generation and perhaps for longer. Recalling Zbigniew Brzeziński "It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire."

pmoriarty 5y ago

"it won't represent the kind of relief valve from European dependence on Russia that a free and prosperous united Ukraine might" The EU and NATO are voluntarily breaking away from dependence on Russia on many fronts as we speak. Russia's invasion of Ukraine galvanized this process. Peace would have been far less devastating to all the countries involved.