It'd have to be a very liquid market, to make it profitable to provide enough support to make a material difference. I'm not convinced assassination markets ar

It'd have to be a very liquid market, to make it profitable to provide enough support to make a material difference. I'm not convinced assassination markets are practical. If you make a prediction that a person will be assassinated on a particular day, and put money on it, you'll make the odds for that day spike up, thus warning the target to take new and unpredictable precautions. If you try to counter this effect with less specific predictions, then more people will take your side of the bet so you'll get worse odds.