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This will backfire on the US. They're making Russia anti-fragile and not dependant on America's dollar or big companies products. It can also trade with China t

This will backfire on the US. They're making Russia anti-fragile and not dependant on America's dollar or big companies products. It can also trade with China to survive and Europe still needs its gaz. If Iran and North Korea could survive sanctions for decades, I have hard time seeing Russia falling because of these sanctions, and Russia is in a better position than both Iran and North Korea. Russia already started using China's payment card system so now they don't rely on visa/mastercard, another great loss for the US. Not sure who will end up losing more here to be honnest.

mullingitover 5y ago
> They're making Russia anti-fragile > It can also trade with China to survive These statements are at very much at odds with each other. They might be able to squeeze some money out of Europe now, but if the relationship isn't mended with blinding speed then Europe is going to move away from Russian energy permanently. This situation would turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state.
- patrickaljord 5y ago
  > This situation would turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state. It's a bipolar world though, you're either a vassal of the US or China. I don't know of any country which isn't a vassal to any of these too, except for Syria and Iran who are vassal states of Russia. And Cuba to some extent. Still being able to survive without the US is pretty anti-fragile.
  - rodgerd 5y ago
    Putin's whole ambition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics) is to expand to and beyond the Russian Empire. Becoming a Chinese client state would be a massive failure for him.
sofixa 5y ago
It's debatable. Iran and NK weren't as developed as Russia was. Sure, there are many alternatives to things such as payment providers, but regular Russians are basically cut off from many services they used to use until recently ( Netflix, YouTube) and can no longer but stuff they could before ( iPhones, computers, etc.). This will hurt drastically more the average Russian than the average North Korean who has never had the privilege to use any of those things ( if they've even heard of them). The damage to the Russian economy from sanctions is also enormous and it will take years to recover.
- patrickaljord 5y ago
  > It's debatable. Iran and NK weren't as developed as Russia was. Russia GDP is like Spain, it's not that developed either. It's mostly gaz and wheat, this can be diverted to China, though at a discount of course. Still enough to survive.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    Developed as developed, not GDP. Monaco's GDP is miniscule compared to Morocco ( 7 vs 119 billion USD), but you can safely say Monaco is more developed.
    - bonzini 5y ago
      Russia's GDP is like Spain's with (going by memory) 4-5 times the population.
      - onemoresoop 5y ago
        And Spain is 30 times smaller in size than Russia
jotm 5y ago
Russia was pretty independent on a world stage. When it's in China's shadow, the US will have one less country to worry about (not that they worried much, I think). They can just focus on China.
- brabel 5y ago
  China together with Russia can be an enormous challenger to US hegemony. Russia has military might, while China has economical might... together, they're probably a match for the USA in every aspect.
  - avar 5y ago
    > Russia has military might. Haven't the past weeks revised everyone's opinion on that point? They're having tremendous logistical issues within a relatively short driving distance from their own borders. They've got a lot of old Soviet hardware they can sell designs for, and already have e.g. in the case of China and their first aircraft carrier. But that won't last, and China's already ahead of them in some areas (including carriers).
    - rurp 5y ago
      It's also worth emphasizing that we're basically seeing the best version of Russia's military. They've spent years preparing for this current war and had total control over when and where the fighting would start. Having to scramble for an unexpected war is 10x harder and more complicated. Large militaries are also very expensive. Right now it's looking like Russia is going to have a very hard time funding their current apparratus.
      - TillE 5y ago
        I've seen various theories about their failures on the ground, but apparently they still haven't established air superiority over any significant fraction of Ukraine, which is incredible to me. I have little doubt that they'll eventually defeat Ukraine's military forces if that's the goal, but a serious world power should have run them over in a matter of days.
nitwit005 5y ago
> I have hard time seeing Russia falling because of these sanctions That wasn't the goal, so this isn't terribly surprising.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
cheriot 5y ago
Yes, sanctions left in place too long will do this. We will need to find a path to removing them soon or we lose this lever. Once that happens it will take a lot of power to avoid the greedy path of reintegrating with.
Etherlord87 5y ago
What's the point of making something fragile, if you can't use this fact to your advantage, because that would make it anti-fragile? Russia depending entirely on China in almost every aspect makes Russia super-fragile. Now China dictates prices. And why should those prices be high? Is it really in China's interest to help Russia?

mullingitover 5y ago

> They're making Russia anti-fragile > It can also trade with China to survive These statements are at very much at odds with each other. They might be able to squeeze some money out of Europe now, but if the relationship isn't mended with blinding speed then Europe is going to move away from Russian energy permanently. This situation would turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state.

patrickaljord 5y ago
> This situation would turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state. It's a bipolar world though, you're either a vassal of the US or China. I don't know of any country which isn't a vassal to any of these too, except for Syria and Iran who are vassal states of Russia. And Cuba to some extent. Still being able to survive without the US is pretty anti-fragile.
- rodgerd 5y ago
  Putin's whole ambition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics) is to expand to and beyond the Russian Empire. Becoming a Chinese client state would be a massive failure for him.

sofixa 5y ago

It's debatable. Iran and NK weren't as developed as Russia was. Sure, there are many alternatives to things such as payment providers, but regular Russians are basically cut off from many services they used to use until recently ( Netflix, YouTube) and can no longer but stuff they could before ( iPhones, computers, etc.). This will hurt drastically more the average Russian than the average North Korean who has never had the privilege to use any of those things ( if they've even heard of them). The damage to the Russian economy from sanctions is also enormous and it will take years to recover.

patrickaljord 5y ago
> It's debatable. Iran and NK weren't as developed as Russia was. Russia GDP is like Spain, it's not that developed either. It's mostly gaz and wheat, this can be diverted to China, though at a discount of course. Still enough to survive.
- sofixa 5y ago
  Developed as developed, not GDP. Monaco's GDP is miniscule compared to Morocco ( 7 vs 119 billion USD), but you can safely say Monaco is more developed.
  - bonzini 5y ago
    Russia's GDP is like Spain's with (going by memory) 4-5 times the population.
    - onemoresoop 5y ago
      And Spain is 30 times smaller in size than Russia

jotm 5y ago

Russia was pretty independent on a world stage. When it's in China's shadow, the US will have one less country to worry about (not that they worried much, I think). They can just focus on China.

brabel 5y ago
China together with Russia can be an enormous challenger to US hegemony. Russia has military might, while China has economical might... together, they're probably a match for the USA in every aspect.
- avar 5y ago
  > Russia has military might. Haven't the past weeks revised everyone's opinion on that point? They're having tremendous logistical issues within a relatively short driving distance from their own borders. They've got a lot of old Soviet hardware they can sell designs for, and already have e.g. in the case of China and their first aircraft carrier. But that won't last, and China's already ahead of them in some areas (including carriers).
  - rurp 5y ago
    It's also worth emphasizing that we're basically seeing the best version of Russia's military. They've spent years preparing for this current war and had total control over when and where the fighting would start. Having to scramble for an unexpected war is 10x harder and more complicated. Large militaries are also very expensive. Right now it's looking like Russia is going to have a very hard time funding their current apparratus.
    - TillE 5y ago
      I've seen various theories about their failures on the ground, but apparently they still haven't established air superiority over any significant fraction of Ukraine, which is incredible to me. I have little doubt that they'll eventually defeat Ukraine's military forces if that's the goal, but a serious world power should have run them over in a matter of days.

nitwit005 5y ago

> I have hard time seeing Russia falling because of these sanctions That wasn't the goal, so this isn't terribly surprising.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

cheriot 5y ago

Yes, sanctions left in place too long will do this. We will need to find a path to removing them soon or we lose this lever. Once that happens it will take a lot of power to avoid the greedy path of reintegrating with.

Etherlord87 5y ago

What's the point of making something fragile, if you can't use this fact to your advantage, because that would make it anti-fragile? Russia depending entirely on China in almost every aspect makes Russia super-fragile. Now China dictates prices. And why should those prices be high? Is it really in China's interest to help Russia?