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The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory. They aren'

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory. They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines. It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total collapse or a defeat. That's wishful thinking.

xxpor 5y ago
>Kyiv cannot hold out forever. I agree with that, but if it takes going Full Grozny or Idlib on them, what's the point, other than saving face?
- twblalock 5y ago
  Saving face matters a lot for dictators, who often lose power if they embarrass their countries. For Putin this is now a matter of personal survival. He will do whatever it takes to avoid an outcome that makes him look weak to the Russian public -- he clearly doesn't care what the rest of the world thinks of him at this point.
- menomatter 5y ago
  You mean Alleppo. Idlib still under opposition/Turkish proxies.
  - xxpor 5y ago
    Ah damn, you're right. Can't believe I mixed them up.
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  From the Russian perspective: If the country wont agree to NATO neutrality, the next best outcome is destroying it so thoroughly that it will be a humanitarian disaster for decades to come. The former is a much more attractive option to them because it would pose the lest threat. The second is still favorable to a prosperous NATO and EU member.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
sorokod 5y ago
I am not sure that Russia has a government in the commonly accepting sense of the concept. As to simply waiting out, a clock may be ticking for Russians as well as for the Ukrainians. Probably not the same clock but still...
gvb 5y ago
> Kyiv cannot hold out forever. They don't have to. They only have to hold out longer than the Russians. In the north, the Russians are running out of supplies and their logistics is halted so they are not going to get more supplies any time soon. In the south, Russia appears to have better logistics and they are still moving, but slower and slower. Their southern logistics is the railroad through Crimea - that is a major weak point. They have been trying with all their might to take Mariupol which would give them an alternative (albeit road-based) logistics path but have been fought to a standstill there too. Meanwhile, Ukraine has an open logistics path through Poland all the way to the front lines (uncontested by Russia, unlike Russia's logistics paths which are long and vulnerable) and military supplies are pouring in. Ukraine is getting stronger and the Russian troops are running out of men, diesel, food, and probably ammunition.
darawk 5y ago
They certainly knew there would be sanctions, but I don't think they estimated they would be this harsh. Almost nobody in the west even thought they'd be able to unite enough to do what's been done. These sanctions have got to be far harsher than anything they anticipated.
tguvot 5y ago
actually it looks like they planned for a quick victory in a couple of days and slap on the hand like they got in 2014. they didn't anticipated this mess and this level of sanctions.
inglor_cz 5y ago
"The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage" They don't, quite to the contrary. A tight siege of a city of three million would require some 500 000 troops, give or take. (Germans had 750 000 soldiers encircling Leningrad.) That would be three times as many as Russia committed to the entire theater of war. Russian logistics are strained. They can't simply mobilize millions and somehow flood the Ukrainian territory with them.

xxpor 5y ago

>Kyiv cannot hold out forever. I agree with that, but if it takes going Full Grozny or Idlib on them, what's the point, other than saving face?

twblalock 5y ago
Saving face matters a lot for dictators, who often lose power if they embarrass their countries. For Putin this is now a matter of personal survival. He will do whatever it takes to avoid an outcome that makes him look weak to the Russian public -- he clearly doesn't care what the rest of the world thinks of him at this point.
menomatter 5y ago
You mean Alleppo. Idlib still under opposition/Turkish proxies.
- xxpor 5y ago
  Ah damn, you're right. Can't believe I mixed them up.
s1artibartfast 5y ago
From the Russian perspective: If the country wont agree to NATO neutrality, the next best outcome is destroying it so thoroughly that it will be a humanitarian disaster for decades to come. The former is a much more attractive option to them because it would pose the lest threat. The second is still favorable to a prosperous NATO and EU member.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

sorokod 5y ago

I am not sure that Russia has a government in the commonly accepting sense of the concept. As to simply waiting out, a clock may be ticking for Russians as well as for the Ukrainians. Probably not the same clock but still...

gvb 5y ago

> Kyiv cannot hold out forever. They don't have to. They only have to hold out longer than the Russians. In the north, the Russians are running out of supplies and their logistics is halted so they are not going to get more supplies any time soon. In the south, Russia appears to have better logistics and they are still moving, but slower and slower. Their southern logistics is the railroad through Crimea - that is a major weak point. They have been trying with all their might to take Mariupol which would give them an alternative (albeit road-based) logistics path but have been fought to a standstill there too. Meanwhile, Ukraine has an open logistics path through Poland all the way to the front lines (uncontested by Russia, unlike Russia's logistics paths which are long and vulnerable) and military supplies are pouring in. Ukraine is getting stronger and the Russian troops are running out of men, diesel, food, and probably ammunition.

darawk 5y ago

They certainly knew there would be sanctions, but I don't think they estimated they would be this harsh. Almost nobody in the west even thought they'd be able to unite enough to do what's been done. These sanctions have got to be far harsher than anything they anticipated.

tguvot 5y ago

actually it looks like they planned for a quick victory in a couple of days and slap on the hand like they got in 2014. they didn't anticipated this mess and this level of sanctions.

inglor_cz 5y ago

"The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage" They don't, quite to the contrary. A tight siege of a city of three million would require some 500 000 troops, give or take. (Germans had 750 000 soldiers encircling Leningrad.) That would be three times as many as Russia committed to the entire theater of war. Russian logistics are strained. They can't simply mobilize millions and somehow flood the Ukrainian territory with them.