To be clear, Metaculus is a prediction aggregation platform, not a prediction market. There's no money at stake, only reputation. https://www.metaculus.com/ab

To be clear, Metaculus is a prediction aggregation platform, not a prediction market. There's no money at stake, only reputation. https://www.metaculus.com/about/ https://www.metaculus.com/about/ It's well recognized, including my Metaculus users and admin, that money can provide a powerful incentive for accuracy which they do not use (presumably because this would be a very different, more legally encumbered platform). However, they attempt to make up for this by having many more predictions and, crucially, but weighting more heavily the predictions of people whose predictions have been more accurate in the past.