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Prediction markets for real money that relate to violent outcomes are a very dangerous territory ethically. You could bet the Kyiv will fall and then provide su
by babyshake 5y ago
Prediction markets for real money that relate to violent outcomes are a very dangerous territory ethically. You could bet the Kyiv will fall and then provide support or resources to the Russian forces, for example. A more practical example would be something like an assassination prediction.
- somedude895 5y agoIf you have the sort of influence or resources to make something like an assassination or war happen, then it's really easy to make money on those things already, for example by shorting certain stocks. And I'm sure that's already been happening for a while to some extent.
- DennisP 5y agoIt'd have to be a very liquid market, to make it profitable to provide enough support to make a material difference. I'm not convinced assassination markets are practical. If you make a prediction that a person will be assassinated on a particular day, and put money on it, you'll make the odds for that day spike up, thus warning the target to take new and unpredictable precautions. If you try to counter this effect with less specific predictions, then more people will take your side of the bet so you'll get worse odds.