5 ms·

This take is everywhere online but I don't see a lot of evidence for why this historical moment is different from past moments. Fear sells news and ads. You're

by boc 5y ago

This take is everywhere online but I don't see a lot of evidence for why this historical moment is different from past moments. Fear sells news and ads. You're the sucker buying it.

veganhouseDJ 5y ago
Nickel last night? https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel I have never seen anything like that.
- ahnick 5y ago
  what on earth is the explanation for that? Edit: Okay from the summary it says... "Russia accounts for about 10% of the global nickel supply, mainly for use in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries. Nickel was already rallying before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as robust demand from the stainless steel and battery industry drained inventories, which now stand at 76,830 tonnes in LME-registered warehouses, their lowest since 2019." Still surprises me that the increase is so much higher than other metals.
  - veganhouseDJ 5y ago
    The higher order effects of a 100% increase in 1 day of nickel is Knightian uncertain. It paused? lol https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel
riku_iki 5y ago
This is pre-pandemic: https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dfWIQljN2_XfKqyO2Kw7G-u4u_o=/1400x788/filters:format(png)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/11839467/Screen_Shot_2018_07_29_at_10.27.09_AM.png https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dfWIQljN2_XfKqyO2Kw7G-u4u_o=... And my bet is that during pandemic, government money printing, housing and stocks rising, this graph becomes 2 times more dramatic.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  If that gets painful enough then it will corrected and the 1% will be the ones feeling most of the pain.
  - riku_iki 5y ago
    It may or may not. 1% has lots of resources (legal, political and media) to protect their assets. It is already very painful for large share of population, but they have no idea what to do with this.
    - ethbr0 5y ago
      By definition, a decrease in average asset value decreases the net worth of those with assets more than those without. Which isn't to say it's more painful to the wealthy, as they have the excess assets to buffer, but is to say that millionaires and billionaires don't have a magic "avoid recession impact" button.
      - riku_iki 5y ago
        > By definition, a decrease in average asset value decreases the net worth of those with assets more than those without. That's if decrease is equal and linear for all verticals, which I don't believe is the case. > billionaires don't have a magic "avoid recession impact" button. They have many buttons: lots of intelligence which allows them to relocate assets before average folks, political lobbying which allows them to bailout troubled businesses in expense of national debt.
honkycat 5y ago
Honestly: sometimes I say something broad and incendiary because I want to get owned and get some good additional information from people who are engaged. I honestly have no idea what the ripple effects of this war and recession will be.
- dmingod666 5y ago
  Like the strategy of asking for help on Linux forums. 'dont ask for help, nobody will help you. Just claim what you're trying to achieve is impossible to do in Linux and you'll get lots of answers'

by boc 5y ago

This take is everywhere online but I don't see a lot of evidence for why this historical moment is different from past moments. Fear sells news and ads. You're the sucker buying it.

veganhouseDJ 5y ago

Nickel last night? https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel I have never seen anything like that.

ahnick 5y ago
what on earth is the explanation for that? Edit: Okay from the summary it says... "Russia accounts for about 10% of the global nickel supply, mainly for use in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries. Nickel was already rallying before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as robust demand from the stainless steel and battery industry drained inventories, which now stand at 76,830 tonnes in LME-registered warehouses, their lowest since 2019." Still surprises me that the increase is so much higher than other metals.
- veganhouseDJ 5y ago
  The higher order effects of a 100% increase in 1 day of nickel is Knightian uncertain. It paused? lol https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel

riku_iki 5y ago

This is pre-pandemic: https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dfWIQljN2_XfKqyO2Kw7G-u4u_o=/1400x788/filters:format(png)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/11839467/Screen_Shot_2018_07_29_at_10.27.09_AM.png https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dfWIQljN2_XfKqyO2Kw7G-u4u_o=... And my bet is that during pandemic, government money printing, housing and stocks rising, this graph becomes 2 times more dramatic.

tonyedgecombe 5y ago
If that gets painful enough then it will corrected and the 1% will be the ones feeling most of the pain.
- riku_iki 5y ago
  It may or may not. 1% has lots of resources (legal, political and media) to protect their assets. It is already very painful for large share of population, but they have no idea what to do with this.
  - ethbr0 5y ago
    By definition, a decrease in average asset value decreases the net worth of those with assets more than those without. Which isn't to say it's more painful to the wealthy, as they have the excess assets to buffer, but is to say that millionaires and billionaires don't have a magic "avoid recession impact" button.
    - riku_iki 5y ago
      > By definition, a decrease in average asset value decreases the net worth of those with assets more than those without. That's if decrease is equal and linear for all verticals, which I don't believe is the case. > billionaires don't have a magic "avoid recession impact" button. They have many buttons: lots of intelligence which allows them to relocate assets before average folks, political lobbying which allows them to bailout troubled businesses in expense of national debt.

honkycat 5y ago

Honestly: sometimes I say something broad and incendiary because I want to get owned and get some good additional information from people who are engaged. I honestly have no idea what the ripple effects of this war and recession will be.

dmingod666 5y ago
Like the strategy of asking for help on Linux forums. 'dont ask for help, nobody will help you. Just claim what you're trying to achieve is impossible to do in Linux and you'll get lots of answers'