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As more and more providers cut off Russia, we see the points of centralization in the system. For software, this is anything closed-source or licensed- open sou

As more and more providers cut off Russia, we see the points of centralization in the system. For software, this is anything closed-source or licensed- open source can't be blocked. Similar story for cryptocurrency, the centralized offramps like Coinbase cut users off but smart contracts don't. In a way it's good – people in these situations will flock to more resilient systems.

kmeisthax 5y ago
Open source can be blocked with sanctions, though that's fairly meaningless if the sanctioned entity's host country doesn't care about Berne/TRIPS anymore. Indeed, Russia is making moves to legitimize software piracy[0] because they're so cut-off from the rest of the world that you can't sanction them more for disrespecting basic copyright. For those wondering this would also mean that Russia doesn't have to care about GPL anymore, obviously. [0] Which is something I'd be actually optimistic about if this wasn't happening in, well... Russia.
- iso1210 5y ago
  > Open source can be blocked with sanctions How?
  - avar 5y ago
    Read up on crypto export controls as they were implemented in the 90s, and still are today for anything that falls under e.g. ITAR. It's not a perfect way to block open source, but in practice it could be done and would mostly "work". The chilling effect and collateral damage would be massive though.
  - tjr225 5y ago
    https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/29/github-ban-sanctioned-countries/ https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/29/github-ban-sanctioned-coun...
  - kmeisthax 5y ago
    Sanctions can apply to copyright or patent licenses, which means you can't grant them and any existing licenses are nullified. When Huawei got sanctioned, they were cut off from any technology invented by Americans, including things like most ARM chip designs, Google Play, and even Android itself[0]. This also meant that any remaining licensees of such technologies couldn't sublicense to Huawei. Now, you might wonder why that matters - surely, China is the one enforcing copyright and patent law, right? They could just pretend America didn't say that. Except if they do that, then they're in violation of WIPO/TRIPS, and every country in the world is going to ban their exports. FOSS relies entirely on copyright law in order to work and be legal, and Americans and Europeans write a lot of FOSS, so the US, UK, Canada, Mexico, and the EU 27 collectively pull the strings here. If you don't have those licenses in place, not only could any contributor go rogue and start suing; the US itself would have standing to sue on behalf of it's citizens (i.e. to get products banned from international trade). As a practical example of this, GitHub had to fight tooth-and-nail just to get a sanctions exemption so that Iranian software developers could rejoin the rest of the world. [0] AFAIK Huawei is shipping their own AOSP fork now, and that's currently allowed; but I still maintain that the US could have banned them from that, too.
- Etherlord87 5y ago
  > you can't sanction them more Sorry if I'm pedantic here, but you can sanction them more. Not only that, but the more "evil" Russia becomes, the more it drags its allies down and demotivates them to continue friendly relations with them. Russia is at the ocean floor but it can also hear knocking from the bottom.
patrickaljord 5y ago
This will backfire on the US. They're making Russia anti-fragile and not dependant on America's dollar or big companies products. It can also trade with China to survive and Europe still needs its gaz. If Iran and North Korea could survive sanctions for decades, I have hard time seeing Russia falling because of these sanctions, and Russia is in a better position than both Iran and North Korea. Russia already started using China's payment card system so now they don't rely on visa/mastercard, another great loss for the US. Not sure who will end up losing more here to be honnest.
- mullingitover 5y ago
  > They're making Russia anti-fragile > It can also trade with China to survive These statements are at very much at odds with each other. They might be able to squeeze some money out of Europe now, but if the relationship isn't mended with blinding speed then Europe is going to move away from Russian energy permanently. This situation would turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state.
  - patrickaljord 5y ago
    > This situation would turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state. It's a bipolar world though, you're either a vassal of the US or China. I don't know of any country which isn't a vassal to any of these too, except for Syria and Iran who are vassal states of Russia. And Cuba to some extent. Still being able to survive without the US is pretty anti-fragile.
    - rodgerd 5y ago
      Putin's whole ambition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics) is to expand to and beyond the Russian Empire. Becoming a Chinese client state would be a massive failure for him.
- sofixa 5y ago
  It's debatable. Iran and NK weren't as developed as Russia was. Sure, there are many alternatives to things such as payment providers, but regular Russians are basically cut off from many services they used to use until recently ( Netflix, YouTube) and can no longer but stuff they could before ( iPhones, computers, etc.). This will hurt drastically more the average Russian than the average North Korean who has never had the privilege to use any of those things ( if they've even heard of them). The damage to the Russian economy from sanctions is also enormous and it will take years to recover.
jotm 5y ago
Not when there's easier alternatives. They'll flock to Chinese systems, instead.

kmeisthax 5y ago

Open source can be blocked with sanctions, though that's fairly meaningless if the sanctioned entity's host country doesn't care about Berne/TRIPS anymore. Indeed, Russia is making moves to legitimize software piracy[0] because they're so cut-off from the rest of the world that you can't sanction them more for disrespecting basic copyright. For those wondering this would also mean that Russia doesn't have to care about GPL anymore, obviously. [0] Which is something I'd be actually optimistic about if this wasn't happening in, well... Russia.

iso1210 5y ago
> Open source can be blocked with sanctions How?
- avar 5y ago
  Read up on crypto export controls as they were implemented in the 90s, and still are today for anything that falls under e.g. ITAR. It's not a perfect way to block open source, but in practice it could be done and would mostly "work". The chilling effect and collateral damage would be massive though.
- tjr225 5y ago
  https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/29/github-ban-sanctioned-countries/ https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/29/github-ban-sanctioned-coun...
- kmeisthax 5y ago
  Sanctions can apply to copyright or patent licenses, which means you can't grant them and any existing licenses are nullified. When Huawei got sanctioned, they were cut off from any technology invented by Americans, including things like most ARM chip designs, Google Play, and even Android itself[0]. This also meant that any remaining licensees of such technologies couldn't sublicense to Huawei. Now, you might wonder why that matters - surely, China is the one enforcing copyright and patent law, right? They could just pretend America didn't say that. Except if they do that, then they're in violation of WIPO/TRIPS, and every country in the world is going to ban their exports. FOSS relies entirely on copyright law in order to work and be legal, and Americans and Europeans write a lot of FOSS, so the US, UK, Canada, Mexico, and the EU 27 collectively pull the strings here. If you don't have those licenses in place, not only could any contributor go rogue and start suing; the US itself would have standing to sue on behalf of it's citizens (i.e. to get products banned from international trade). As a practical example of this, GitHub had to fight tooth-and-nail just to get a sanctions exemption so that Iranian software developers could rejoin the rest of the world. [0] AFAIK Huawei is shipping their own AOSP fork now, and that's currently allowed; but I still maintain that the US could have banned them from that, too.
Etherlord87 5y ago
> you can't sanction them more Sorry if I'm pedantic here, but you can sanction them more. Not only that, but the more "evil" Russia becomes, the more it drags its allies down and demotivates them to continue friendly relations with them. Russia is at the ocean floor but it can also hear knocking from the bottom.

patrickaljord 5y ago

This will backfire on the US. They're making Russia anti-fragile and not dependant on America's dollar or big companies products. It can also trade with China to survive and Europe still needs its gaz. If Iran and North Korea could survive sanctions for decades, I have hard time seeing Russia falling because of these sanctions, and Russia is in a better position than both Iran and North Korea. Russia already started using China's payment card system so now they don't rely on visa/mastercard, another great loss for the US. Not sure who will end up losing more here to be honnest.

mullingitover 5y ago
> They're making Russia anti-fragile > It can also trade with China to survive These statements are at very much at odds with each other. They might be able to squeeze some money out of Europe now, but if the relationship isn't mended with blinding speed then Europe is going to move away from Russian energy permanently. This situation would turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state.
- patrickaljord 5y ago
  > This situation would turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state. It's a bipolar world though, you're either a vassal of the US or China. I don't know of any country which isn't a vassal to any of these too, except for Syria and Iran who are vassal states of Russia. And Cuba to some extent. Still being able to survive without the US is pretty anti-fragile.
  - rodgerd 5y ago
    Putin's whole ambition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics) is to expand to and beyond the Russian Empire. Becoming a Chinese client state would be a massive failure for him.
sofixa 5y ago
It's debatable. Iran and NK weren't as developed as Russia was. Sure, there are many alternatives to things such as payment providers, but regular Russians are basically cut off from many services they used to use until recently ( Netflix, YouTube) and can no longer but stuff they could before ( iPhones, computers, etc.). This will hurt drastically more the average Russian than the average North Korean who has never had the privilege to use any of those things ( if they've even heard of them). The damage to the Russian economy from sanctions is also enormous and it will take years to recover.

jotm 5y ago

Not when there's easier alternatives. They'll flock to Chinese systems, instead.