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> What's the alternative? It's forcing Russians into tough decisions, hitting Putin and friends where it hurts, or letting Putin get away with it. I honestly d
by tharne 5y ago
> What's the alternative? It's forcing Russians into tough decisions, hitting Putin and friends where it hurts, or letting Putin get away with it.
I honestly don't know what the right path is here. Sometimes all the choices are bad.
In all likelihood, Putin probably will get away with this in the long-term. Most of us are happy to change our Twitter profiles to a Ukrainian flag, but how many of us would go and fight in Ukraine ourselves, how many of us would willingly send our kids over there to fight? Not most of us, I suspect.
I think the best possible outcome, which still isn't great, is that the Ukrainian people turn this into a quagmire and the Russians leave. The Russian public, much like the public in the West probably doesn't want to send their kids to die in another country that hasn't attacked them.
Do sanctions actually work? Maybe, but I'm not 100% convinced. North Korea is still sabre rattling and developing nuclear weapons despite years of sanctions. Cuba hasn't buckled despite over 50 years of U.S. sanctions. Iran hasn't had a regime change despite all the economic levers pulled against them over the years. The boycott Israel movement hasn't stopped the construction of settlements.
- tsimionescu 5y ago> I think the best possible outcome, which still isn't great, is that the Ukrainian people turn this into a quagmire and the Russians leave. I don't think a quagmire in your own country is ever a good outcome. I honestly believe it would be preferable for most civilians if Russia quickly wins the war rather than dragging it out for a decade until Russia withdraws. Of course, ideally Russia will agree to a peace relatively soon, take a few things they already had (Crimea, parts of Donbas) and some security promises, and lick their wounds after the sanctions...
- ftth_finland 5y agoI don’t think you’ll get any support for this kind of reasoning in any of the countries that have been invaded by Russia.
- tsimionescu 5y agoI happen to live in a country that was invaded by the USSR at the end of WWII and chose to trun arms against the Germans and help the USSR rather than face a protracted battle, Romania. This led to us losing a pretty big part of our country, Moldova, and staying as part of the Eastern bloc for the next 50 years. Still, no one thinks our forefathers should have bravely resisted the Allied invasion. Sure, the USSR's enemy was Nazi Germany, an even worse horrid disgusting regime, so the situation is definitely not identical by any means. But still, war takes such a horrendous toll on a population, particularly a protracted war, that almost anything is preferable. I doubt the people of Crimea for example are suffering as much as if they had been through war - I'm not even sure they would welcome a Ukrainian operation to reconquer them (even though, to be clear, I don't believe Putin's referendum was anything other than a sham). I would also ask the 500,000 to 2 million killed afghans, and the 3 million wounded, if they are happy their deaths tore down the USSR, and would gladly go through that again.