5 ms·
Crime rates have fallen historically until COVID. I think it's more likely the post WW2 and post Cold War (perceived) eras were periods of irrational exuberanc
by fullshark 5y ago
Crime rates have fallen historically until COVID. I think it's more likely the post WW2 and post Cold War (perceived) eras were periods of irrational exuberance culturally in the west with uncommon optimism in western lead globalism and its future (What you consider civilization I take it). The last few years were a big time reality check on the collective interest in that future.
- ch4s3 5y agoThe rate of violent crime nearly quadrupled between 1960 and its peak in 1991 in the US. Even with the COIVD bump, rates are comparable to the mid 60s, and aren't tracking the previous climb.
- gordian-mind 5y agoWhat's the big change that happened in the 60s and started this trend?
- ch4s3 5y agoA lot of baby-boomers started reaching the prime age for committing crime all at once.
- discardedrefuse 5y agoAccording to the article: Leaded gasoline consumption rose rapidly in the early 1960s and peaked in the 1970s. As a result, Reuben and his colleagues found that essentially everyone born during those two decades are all but guaranteed to have been exposed to pernicious levels of lead from car exhaust.
- gordian-mind 5y agoSo lowering the general IQ in a society by a few points means an explosion in crime?
- mark-r 5y agoI don't believe it is the decrease in IQ that causes the crime, rather that both effects are correlated because they have the same root cause.
- DFHippie 5y agoIs this a rhetorical question? Leaded gasoline.
- hash03x 5y ago
- fullshark 5y agoSo it's dropped for 30 years... I'm not disputing the claim that lead poisoning can lead to violent crime, I'm disputing the claim that the turmoil of the last few years (my guess OP means starting with Brexit/Trump) is due to lead poisoned Boomer brains being less empathetic. Arguably the world is more empathetic than ever if you study history (simple data point: entire economies were built around slavery for most of human existence) and this one data point in isolation is really not a particularly strong one to point to for the claim.
- ch4s3 5y agoI'm only commenting on violent crime, not political upheaval.
- fullshark 5y agoYeah that link seems reasonably well established. The link between "current problems" (whatever they are) and a generation of lead poisoned boomer brains isn't. I'm also not exactly sure what OP is suggesting and trying to connect the dots from their offhand comment. Probably a waste of time all around so I will exit the discussion.
- ch4s3 5y agoYeah that seems tenuous. Declining institutional trust, and the botched handling to trade liberalization in the 80s and 90s coupled with the post 2008 bailouts probably has a lot more to do with current political instability in the west broadly.
- ElephantsMyAnus 5y agoReally? It looks like the complete opposite happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/media/File:US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/me...
- ch4s3 5y agoYes, 2015 was about on par with 1967[1] in terms of property and violent crime. Incarceration is not what I was talking about. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Property_Crime_Rates_in_the_United_States.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/me...
- ElephantsMyAnus 5y agoBut you agree that it needs an explanation, right? You gloat about a dramatic decrease in crime, yet the number of inmates increased tenfold over that time period.
- ch4s3 5y agoSee my other reply[1]. I'm not gloating, simply conveying facts about numbers. The increase in incarceration is mostly due to tougher sentences for non-violent crime. [1]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30605054 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30605054
- ElephantsMyAnus 5y agoMaybe the tougher sentences worked? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/media/File%3AHomicide_rates1900-2001.jpg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#/...
- ch4s3 5y agoThen why did Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan see the same drops in crime? They all lock up a minuscule fraction of their populations by comparison and had larger or similar drops in crime. The timing is also wrong, the drop in crime started before incarceration ramped up. Also as I mentioned the plurality of incarceration is for nonviolent crime, a lot of which is simple drug possession.
- xpe 5y agoPun intended? > western lead globalism You probably meant 'western-led globalism'.
- fullshark 5y agoHeh not intended but I'll claim it retroactively to save face.