7 ms·

I worry that a lot of these sanctions are going to backfire. If I'm an average Russian citizen, maybe I'm against the war, or more likely I just don't feel very

by tharne 5y ago

I worry that a lot of these sanctions are going to backfire. If I'm an average Russian citizen, maybe I'm against the war, or more likely I just don't feel very strongly about it. If the West then destroys my livelihood and financial wellbeing with sanctions, eventually my reaction is going to be something like, "f*k these NATO guys, they're ruining my life for something I have nothing to do with and can't do anything about anyway". I was against the Iraq War back in 2003, but I would have been livid if the whole world punished ordinary Americans with sanctions, even though the majority of us voted against G.W. Bush in 2000. The fastest way to create unity among a group of people is to arbitrarily punish all of them together. This is, in part, why the military runs basic training the way it does.

ceejayoz 5y ago
Russians have a pretty good history of knocking off their leadership when things aren't going well for the general population. The next leaders aren't necessarily any better, but it's still the main leverage over Putin the West has right now.
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
  Erm when exactly did that happen, after WW1, more than 100 years ago?
  - Mikeb85 5y ago
    Fall of the Soviet Union wasn't that long ago... They didn't kill them that time and it was more peaceful but they did replace them.
    - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
      Fall of the Soviet Union was mostly an internal coup supported by the street rather than a popular uprising.
      - Mikeb85 5y ago
        It's still "Russians knocking off their leadership". People aren't expecting Russians on the street to get rid of Putin. They're expecting that it will cause pressure on other Russian leaders to side with Russians and the West over Putin...
        Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
        There are no 'other russian leaders'. Putin's political theater before the war was clearly aimed to make any russian official of note into an accomplice, publicly supporting the invasion. They have all made their bones and are all sanctioned by the EU and world countries now. So this course of events is highly unlikely.
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        Part of the risk of being a strongman-style leader is there's always someone waiting in the wings, and they don't have to have been previously prominent. "Why are coups always led by colonels?" https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/02/22/why-are-coups-always-led-by-colonels/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/02/22/why-are-coups-always-le...
        Mikeb85 5y ago
        There always is someone willing to cut a deal to save themselves... And the west will facilitate it.
sofixa 5y ago
What's the alternative? It's forcing Russians into tough decisions, hitting Putin and friends where it hurts, or letting Putin get away with it.
- bombcar 5y ago
  The government sanctions are relatively well targeted at the Russian powers; it's all these companies running around and doing "virtue sanctions" that are hitting civilians. And nobody dares sanction the actual gas that is flowing through the war zone itself ...
  - sofixa 5y ago
    > The government sanctions are relatively well targeted at the Russian powers; it's all these companies running around and doing "virtue sanctions" that are hitting civilians. Virtue sanctions? How do you expect those companies to operate in Russia with the rouble in freefall and SWIFT cut off?
    - bombcar 5y ago
      The companies mentioned are NOT cutting off just Russians, they have been cutting off anyone with Russian citizenship, no matter where they may be located.
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
  [flagged]
  - oneoff786 5y ago
    Ruble crashing, Russian oil prices forced to discount, Russian central bank crisis, etc.
    - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
      yeah, that's why you are hitting people who don't want to have nothing to do with the Russian economy at all.
denis1 5y ago
How's that going to backfire? What you've presented as the "bad option" is the current status quo. Putin had sky high approval for decades and the Russian population has supported him while he strengthened his grip on power.
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
  Yeah, ban on running a business abroad is definitely going to hit the public supporting Putin, right. Also, he doesn't have sky high approval any longer. At the last elections, he could muster his percentage in the first tour with huge falsifications and disallowing any other credible candidate.
golergka 5y ago
> If I'm an average Russian citizen, maybe I'm against the war, or more likely I just don't feel very strongly about it. Unfortunately, no. A LOT of Russian citizens are enthusiastically pro-war, and it's very hard to de-program them from state-run propaganda machine.
- charles_f 5y ago
  Source?
  - golergka 5y ago
    Lived in Moscow almost all of my life, have been a political activists for a few years, have 30+k subscribers on my Russian political tik-tok account. I talk to a lot of Russians both online and offline. The support and bloodthirst is real, I'd say at about 60% support this war. Russians saying that "we should just nuke the states and kill them all" are not something out of the ordinary.
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
  Yeah right. They are so pro-war that the government recently made it a crime [1] punishable by up to 15 years in prison to be publically against the war or spreading information about it not coming from official sources. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-60594110 https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-60594110
  - golergka 5y ago
    Suppressing alternative sources of information is a part of any fascist propaganda machine, yes.
axg11 5y ago
Unfortunately NATO has been played into a corner. Sanctions are the only tool that NATO is willing to use right now (alongside lethal aid to Ukraine). What a lot of Western media is overlooking is that this invasion is modestly supported by the Russian population (20-50% depending on which sources you trust). As you said, these same Russians that support the invasion will ultimately blame NATO. We are gambling that making life more difficult for the average Russian will result in regime change. There is an alternative where sanctions increase popular support for further escalation with NATO and/or Ukraine, in order to result in Ukraine being under the Russian sphere of influence _and_ dropping of sanctions.
- prohobo 5y ago
  The West has become an incompetent, incomprehensibly stupid bully with a gigantic hammer it calls "market theory". It doesn't so much identify and nullify threats so much as it generates market opinion to blindly hate and blacklist anything not considered "good". I'm scared of not having a Ukraine flag in my Twitter handle - despite being Polish and supporting Ukranians in the actual conflict - because I'm scared of the zealot Westerners who might try to pillory me for holding unsavory opinions that go against the current marketable beliefs. I understand how the West is responding and it's not productive, nor is it a "let's wait and see" kind of strategy. This is the same weapon they've been using on everyone else for the past decade. Race, sex, belief, now nationality. It's about turning everything into a market that they control, and we know how people targeted by it react to it. They go cold, MAGA, embrace the antithetical - maybe they even start dropping nukes. When the current round of Western propaganda fades away, who will Russians blame? Only the ones swallowing it on Twitter will blame Putin. So once that's gone this becomes a huge problem for us. The plan is to have the propaganda never end. More people now live their lives through the lens of the internet (or internet-first mentality), who have swallowed enough of the insanity that it's no longer a set of sponsored opinions but "reality". It's clear now that the West completely dominates all propaganda on the internet - I barely see any of the Russian stuff. The Russians can't even get a word out, and I'm wondering who the censors are trying to protect. I highly doubt it's us. What I'm seeing here is the new Western approach to politics in the 21st century. Reality manufacturing and blacklisting, supported by relentless propaganda. The market does the state's dirty work now, and it's constantly hungry for its master's approval, like a big dumb ogre. The only way to stop the Russian aggression is to negotiate with their government. Not put Russians into camps, metaphorical or otherwise. EDIT: If you think I'm wrong, then consider the possible influences. Does doing this push Russia to end the invasion, or does it push them to continue it? Does this help us align ourselves with reality and face it, or does it blind us? Is this likely to make the Russians more willing to become allies, or less willing? etc. etc.
gdulli 5y ago
If Americans had faced consequences from having elected Bush once, and responded to that rationally instead of emotionally, they probably wouldn't have elected him again for a second term.
- tharne 5y ago
  > If Americans had faced consequences from having elected Bush once, and responded to that rationally instead of emotionally, they probably wouldn't have elected him again for a second term. True, but most people respond to most things emotionally, most of the time.
veganhouseDJ 5y ago
It is also a gift to China https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/china-considers-buying-stakes-in-russian-energy-commodity-firms https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/china-con... Least surprising thing ever. The future dictionary definition of cutting off our nose to spite our face but banning Russian oil will make Twitter happy for the next 8-12 hours until the next move with zero thought given to the long term consequences. China might be our only hope to avoid WW3. It was just a few days ago that banning Russian oil was not going to happen but Twitter gets what it wants in 2022. Twitter wants a no fly zone and WW3.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

by tharne 5y ago

ceejayoz 5y ago

Russians have a pretty good history of knocking off their leadership when things aren't going well for the general population. The next leaders aren't necessarily any better, but it's still the main leverage over Putin the West has right now.

Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
Erm when exactly did that happen, after WW1, more than 100 years ago?
- Mikeb85 5y ago
  Fall of the Soviet Union wasn't that long ago... They didn't kill them that time and it was more peaceful but they did replace them.
  - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
    Fall of the Soviet Union was mostly an internal coup supported by the street rather than a popular uprising.
    - Mikeb85 5y ago
      It's still "Russians knocking off their leadership". People aren't expecting Russians on the street to get rid of Putin. They're expecting that it will cause pressure on other Russian leaders to side with Russians and the West over Putin...
      - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
        There are no 'other russian leaders'. Putin's political theater before the war was clearly aimed to make any russian official of note into an accomplice, publicly supporting the invasion. They have all made their bones and are all sanctioned by the EU and world countries now. So this course of events is highly unlikely.
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        Part of the risk of being a strongman-style leader is there's always someone waiting in the wings, and they don't have to have been previously prominent. "Why are coups always led by colonels?" https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/02/22/why-are-coups-always-led-by-colonels/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/02/22/why-are-coups-always-le...
        Mikeb85 5y ago
        There always is someone willing to cut a deal to save themselves... And the west will facilitate it.

sofixa 5y ago

What's the alternative? It's forcing Russians into tough decisions, hitting Putin and friends where it hurts, or letting Putin get away with it.

bombcar 5y ago
The government sanctions are relatively well targeted at the Russian powers; it's all these companies running around and doing "virtue sanctions" that are hitting civilians. And nobody dares sanction the actual gas that is flowing through the war zone itself ...
- sofixa 5y ago
  > The government sanctions are relatively well targeted at the Russian powers; it's all these companies running around and doing "virtue sanctions" that are hitting civilians. Virtue sanctions? How do you expect those companies to operate in Russia with the rouble in freefall and SWIFT cut off?
  - bombcar 5y ago
    The companies mentioned are NOT cutting off just Russians, they have been cutting off anyone with Russian citizenship, no matter where they may be located.
Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
[flagged]
- oneoff786 5y ago
  Ruble crashing, Russian oil prices forced to discount, Russian central bank crisis, etc.
  - Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
    yeah, that's why you are hitting people who don't want to have nothing to do with the Russian economy at all.

denis1 5y ago

How's that going to backfire? What you've presented as the "bad option" is the current status quo. Putin had sky high approval for decades and the Russian population has supported him while he strengthened his grip on power.

Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
Yeah, ban on running a business abroad is definitely going to hit the public supporting Putin, right. Also, he doesn't have sky high approval any longer. At the last elections, he could muster his percentage in the first tour with huge falsifications and disallowing any other credible candidate.

golergka 5y ago

> If I'm an average Russian citizen, maybe I'm against the war, or more likely I just don't feel very strongly about it. Unfortunately, no. A LOT of Russian citizens are enthusiastically pro-war, and it's very hard to de-program them from state-run propaganda machine.

charles_f 5y ago
Source?
- golergka 5y ago
  Lived in Moscow almost all of my life, have been a political activists for a few years, have 30+k subscribers on my Russian political tik-tok account. I talk to a lot of Russians both online and offline. The support and bloodthirst is real, I'd say at about 60% support this war. Russians saying that "we should just nuke the states and kill them all" are not something out of the ordinary.
Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
Yeah right. They are so pro-war that the government recently made it a crime [1] punishable by up to 15 years in prison to be publically against the war or spreading information about it not coming from official sources. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-60594110 https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-60594110
- golergka 5y ago
  Suppressing alternative sources of information is a part of any fascist propaganda machine, yes.

axg11 5y ago

Unfortunately NATO has been played into a corner. Sanctions are the only tool that NATO is willing to use right now (alongside lethal aid to Ukraine). What a lot of Western media is overlooking is that this invasion is modestly supported by the Russian population (20-50% depending on which sources you trust). As you said, these same Russians that support the invasion will ultimately blame NATO. We are gambling that making life more difficult for the average Russian will result in regime change. There is an alternative where sanctions increase popular support for further escalation with NATO and/or Ukraine, in order to result in Ukraine being under the Russian sphere of influence _and_ dropping of sanctions.

prohobo 5y ago
The West has become an incompetent, incomprehensibly stupid bully with a gigantic hammer it calls "market theory". It doesn't so much identify and nullify threats so much as it generates market opinion to blindly hate and blacklist anything not considered "good". I'm scared of not having a Ukraine flag in my Twitter handle - despite being Polish and supporting Ukranians in the actual conflict - because I'm scared of the zealot Westerners who might try to pillory me for holding unsavory opinions that go against the current marketable beliefs. I understand how the West is responding and it's not productive, nor is it a "let's wait and see" kind of strategy. This is the same weapon they've been using on everyone else for the past decade. Race, sex, belief, now nationality. It's about turning everything into a market that they control, and we know how people targeted by it react to it. They go cold, MAGA, embrace the antithetical - maybe they even start dropping nukes. When the current round of Western propaganda fades away, who will Russians blame? Only the ones swallowing it on Twitter will blame Putin. So once that's gone this becomes a huge problem for us. The plan is to have the propaganda never end. More people now live their lives through the lens of the internet (or internet-first mentality), who have swallowed enough of the insanity that it's no longer a set of sponsored opinions but "reality". It's clear now that the West completely dominates all propaganda on the internet - I barely see any of the Russian stuff. The Russians can't even get a word out, and I'm wondering who the censors are trying to protect. I highly doubt it's us. What I'm seeing here is the new Western approach to politics in the 21st century. Reality manufacturing and blacklisting, supported by relentless propaganda. The market does the state's dirty work now, and it's constantly hungry for its master's approval, like a big dumb ogre. The only way to stop the Russian aggression is to negotiate with their government. Not put Russians into camps, metaphorical or otherwise. EDIT: If you think I'm wrong, then consider the possible influences. Does doing this push Russia to end the invasion, or does it push them to continue it? Does this help us align ourselves with reality and face it, or does it blind us? Is this likely to make the Russians more willing to become allies, or less willing? etc. etc.

gdulli 5y ago

If Americans had faced consequences from having elected Bush once, and responded to that rationally instead of emotionally, they probably wouldn't have elected him again for a second term.

tharne 5y ago
> If Americans had faced consequences from having elected Bush once, and responded to that rationally instead of emotionally, they probably wouldn't have elected him again for a second term. True, but most people respond to most things emotionally, most of the time.

veganhouseDJ 5y ago

It is also a gift to China https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/china-considers-buying-stakes-in-russian-energy-commodity-firms https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/china-con... Least surprising thing ever. The future dictionary definition of cutting off our nose to spite our face but banning Russian oil will make Twitter happy for the next 8-12 hours until the next move with zero thought given to the long term consequences. China might be our only hope to avoid WW3. It was just a few days ago that banning Russian oil was not going to happen but Twitter gets what it wants in 2022. Twitter wants a no fly zone and WW3.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]