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So... this is based entirely on speculation. Think about it - how many cities have been destroyed by modern nuclear weapons from which they could draw conclusi

So... this is based entirely on speculation. Think about it - how many cities have been destroyed by modern nuclear weapons from which they could draw conclusions? Even the results of a simulation of such an event is highly speculative... what happens after the bomb depends greatly on the assumptions you make about damage to structures, weather patterns, the size of the bomb used, the altitude at which it is detonated, and a host of other variables. The bottom line is that all we know for certain is that such an event would be horrific... but we don't know exactly how.

Synaesthesia 5y ago
No the physics are pretty elementary and well understood. It happened in Tokyo and Dresden. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2018/ph241/furrer2/ http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2018/ph241/furrer2/
willcipriano 5y ago
Another consideration is that much of this assumes we have zero anti-missle capability. With the Iron Dome knocking artillery shells fired from 3 miles away out of the air I think that's a bad assumption to make.
- leetcrew 5y ago
  the iron dome is mainly used to shoot down shitty rockets traveling around 200 m/s, and at great relative cost. ICBMs are going about ~7 km/s at reentry. it would require an entirely different level of capability to achieve any reasonable kill probability against those.
  - willcipriano 5y ago
    They are also coming from much further away, so we have a lot more advance notice. They don't really have a way to defend themselves in flight and are pretty heavy, so a smaller missle going a shorter distance with a smaller payload should be able to outmaneuver it easily. I'm sure it's not perfect but I'm certain the capacity exists.
    - more_corn 5y ago
      I’m not sure you’re properly thinking through orbital velocities.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
    That existed, once: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprint_(missile) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprint_(missile) It would need many of something like these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safeguard_Program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safeguard_Program to function. Pharaonic!
- more_corn 5y ago
  It’s really east to cram 5 dummy warheads in your icbm and chew up all the defenders rockets.
panda-giddiness 5y ago
> what happens after the bomb depends greatly on the assumptions you make about damage to structures, weather patterns, the size of the bomb used, the altitude at which it is detonated, and a host of other variables. All of these concerns are addressed in the article. There are uncertainties in predicting the extent of the firestorm, of course, but the author's point is that these uncertainties aren't any larger than the uncertainties from the blast, which we purport to understand with some precision. Rain, for example, is thought to only have a slight mitigating effect. Intuitively, that seems pretty reasonable – the water will evaporate instantly, and whatever remains will become fuel for the fire. As the article notes, the bombing of Dresden resulted in one of the worst firestorms in human history, and that fire raged despite the ground being wet and covered in snow.

Synaesthesia 5y ago

No the physics are pretty elementary and well understood. It happened in Tokyo and Dresden. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2018/ph241/furrer2/ http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2018/ph241/furrer2/

willcipriano 5y ago

Another consideration is that much of this assumes we have zero anti-missle capability. With the Iron Dome knocking artillery shells fired from 3 miles away out of the air I think that's a bad assumption to make.

leetcrew 5y ago
the iron dome is mainly used to shoot down shitty rockets traveling around 200 m/s, and at great relative cost. ICBMs are going about ~7 km/s at reentry. it would require an entirely different level of capability to achieve any reasonable kill probability against those.
- willcipriano 5y ago
  They are also coming from much further away, so we have a lot more advance notice. They don't really have a way to defend themselves in flight and are pretty heavy, so a smaller missle going a shorter distance with a smaller payload should be able to outmaneuver it easily. I'm sure it's not perfect but I'm certain the capacity exists.
  - more_corn 5y ago
    I’m not sure you’re properly thinking through orbital velocities.
- LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
  That existed, once: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprint_(missile) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprint_(missile) It would need many of something like these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safeguard_Program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safeguard_Program to function. Pharaonic!
more_corn 5y ago
It’s really east to cram 5 dummy warheads in your icbm and chew up all the defenders rockets.

panda-giddiness 5y ago

> what happens after the bomb depends greatly on the assumptions you make about damage to structures, weather patterns, the size of the bomb used, the altitude at which it is detonated, and a host of other variables. All of these concerns are addressed in the article. There are uncertainties in predicting the extent of the firestorm, of course, but the author's point is that these uncertainties aren't any larger than the uncertainties from the blast, which we purport to understand with some precision. Rain, for example, is thought to only have a slight mitigating effect. Intuitively, that seems pretty reasonable – the water will evaporate instantly, and whatever remains will become fuel for the fire. As the article notes, the bombing of Dresden resulted in one of the worst firestorms in human history, and that fire raged despite the ground being wet and covered in snow.