4 ms·

In military scenarios any use of nuclear weapons always escalates. So I don't think its possible

stinkytaco 5y ago
In a military scenario nuclear weapons have been used precisely once (twice if you don't count them as a single strategic maneuver) and it ended the war. I'm not sure we have enough data to go on.
- Cerium 5y ago
  Also in that scenario all functional nuclear devices on the planet were detonated, iirc.
- emteycz 5y ago
  Aren't nukes used all the time, by their mere presence?
  - stinkytaco 5y ago
    That could be said of anything, military or not. An object, by its presence, influences the world around it. If you are talking about the deterrent effect of mutually assured destruction, I again point out that we don't really have the data. A war between large powers is likely to be devastating even if nuclear weapons are never used and that doesn't seem to deter aggression over a long enough timeline. I don't disagree that an escalation scenario is possible or even likely. It probably is, but I don't think the term "always" really takes into account either the breadth of possibilities or human nature. Part of the problem is that we still frame this in a very binary "Western Europe vs. Eastern Europe" way. If Iran or North Korea fired a nuclear warhead, I don't think that it would necessarily provoke a nuclear response, but an overwhelming conventional response. It's unlikely that either has enough warheads to provoke an all out nuclear conflict and they could likely be overwhelmed conventionally. Our desire not to enter into a catastrophic conflict is probably quite high. Obviously I'd really like there to be no possibility of this occurring.
bombcar 5y ago
This is the accepted (and perhaps it's very good that it is!) wisdom, but obviously it isn't the case; if the nuclear powers decided to nuke the living daylights out of Africa for some reason, it wouldn't escalate as the countries hit have no way of retaliating.
- petercooper 5y ago
  It's fictional, of course, but the movie By Dawn's Early Light covers a scenario where a limited nuclear strike could occur (essentially the two sides negotiate to nuke each other equally as much, but not to an all-out extent): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By_Dawn%27s_Early_Light https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By_Dawn%27s_Early_Light
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

In a military scenario nuclear weapons have been used precisely once (twice if you don't count them as a single strategic maneuver) and it ended the war. I'm not sure we have enough data to go on.

Cerium 5y ago
Also in that scenario all functional nuclear devices on the planet were detonated, iirc.
emteycz 5y ago
Aren't nukes used all the time, by their mere presence?
- stinkytaco 5y ago
  That could be said of anything, military or not. An object, by its presence, influences the world around it. If you are talking about the deterrent effect of mutually assured destruction, I again point out that we don't really have the data. A war between large powers is likely to be devastating even if nuclear weapons are never used and that doesn't seem to deter aggression over a long enough timeline. I don't disagree that an escalation scenario is possible or even likely. It probably is, but I don't think the term "always" really takes into account either the breadth of possibilities or human nature. Part of the problem is that we still frame this in a very binary "Western Europe vs. Eastern Europe" way. If Iran or North Korea fired a nuclear warhead, I don't think that it would necessarily provoke a nuclear response, but an overwhelming conventional response. It's unlikely that either has enough warheads to provoke an all out nuclear conflict and they could likely be overwhelmed conventionally. Our desire not to enter into a catastrophic conflict is probably quite high. Obviously I'd really like there to be no possibility of this occurring.

bombcar 5y ago

This is the accepted (and perhaps it's very good that it is!) wisdom, but obviously it isn't the case; if the nuclear powers decided to nuke the living daylights out of Africa for some reason, it wouldn't escalate as the countries hit have no way of retaliating.

petercooper 5y ago
It's fictional, of course, but the movie By Dawn's Early Light covers a scenario where a limited nuclear strike could occur (essentially the two sides negotiate to nuke each other equally as much, but not to an all-out extent): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By_Dawn%27s_Early_Light https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By_Dawn%27s_Early_Light

deleted 5y ago

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