The realpolitik of it is, Russia has blundered into a catastrophe (or, if you prefer, the West provoked it by expanding NATO). Like the Soviets in Afghanistan,

The realpolitik of it is, Russia has blundered into a catastrophe (or, if you prefer, the West provoked it by expanding NATO). Like the Soviets in Afghanistan, it will turn into a grinding, unwinnable quagmire. The thought is that the war will help pull down the Putin regime, like Afghanistan hollowed out the Soviet Union. It also invites anyone with a territorial dispute with Russia to push hard on it now, like the Japanese are doing. It will be awful for Ukraine, and for the Russian soldiers sent to fight it. But the West's only alternative would be to encourage Ukraine to surrender, which would only tee up Putin's next invasion (Moldova, then the Baltics, then Poland).