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What is happening is quite opposite to what you propose. NATO will increasingly be seen as an ineffective formulation for security of Europe as it has been dem

What is happening is quite opposite to what you propose. NATO will increasingly be seen as an ineffective formulation for security of Europe as it has been demonstrated by Russia to Europeans. (The choices [it affords] are roll over or start a nuclear war. That's not a 'security' framework.) Sovereign European states will definitely (re)consider reaching 1-to-1, direct, security and treaty arrangements with Russia. Some may object to my prognosis here, and we'll soon find out after the Baltic States matter takes center stage. (Yes, imo Ukraine will surrender and accept terms.) NATO may actually go the way of Warsaw Pact sooner than you think. US Dollar dominance has been, apparently by US itself, dealt a fatal blow. UK's ill-gotten "oligarch" wealth safe kitty has also suffered. The Swiss too pissed on their neutrality. Powerful entities and individuals will be seeking alternative safe havens. What many Americans fail to recognize is that US Dollar dominance is what permits this nation to manage stupendous levels of debt. What they also fail to recognize is that non-American elite in US orbit were OK with the political arrangements as long as they got to get a cut of the global financial arrangement and lived in "security", but being forbidden to invest in other countries and a rapidly shrinking non-sanctioned global pie is most certainly affecting these long standing calculations. The intelligence services of the West have also suffered a huge blow. They still have no idea of where this will stop as far as Russia is concerned, and far more importantly, US apparently has NO IDEA as to the level of agreement between China and Russia. They keep probing and asking. No one knows! Yesterday there was literally a flurry of articles in WSJ, FT, Asiatimes, etc. directly addressing China. Asiatimes did its best to put the fear of being cutoff from EU in top article. Biggest losers in all this will be us little people in every country. Heavy handed security posture by states, surveillance, economic stress, and even greater jingoistic media in guise of "journalism" will be the order of the day. Looks like the 1984 vision was ultimately chosen over Brave New World. (Just my opinion.)

okamiueru 5y ago
You're not saying things that make sense to me. The only currency that has depreciated lately is the Ruble and the Lira (4x that of the 3rd place). So to say that USD has suffered a "fatal blow", sounds to me like propaganda, either by being convinced by it, or generating it. It should be easy enough to look at this data for yourself. (Not just my opinion, look it up for yourself)
- eternalban 5y ago
  When nations are forced to trade around Dollar sanctions for strategic resources that they need, they will use alternative currencies and alternative trade and financial mechanisms. I said nothing about the Ruble, which is a local national currency. We're discussing global reserve currency and mechanisms for global trade. > propaganda, either by being convinced by it, or generating it A rather cheap shot. You prove my final point about even greater pressures coming to bear on free speech and exchange of ideas.
  - okamiueru 5y ago
    I mean. By all means, explain further what is meant by "death blow", and how that somehow applies to the currency used by the global market. The rest of the world will be able to trade just fine, as far as currency exchange is concerned. The only issue is for those who have halved their buying power. The the rest of the world clearly disagrees with your assessment, as if they did not, it would be reflected in the evaluation of the USD. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
    - eternalban 5y ago
      What it doesn't mean is a "collapse", which is how you are framing it. It won't be overnight. I assume you are a fellow geek so picture moving a huge infrastructure off of AWS and/or going "multi-cloud". It's not a switch that you flip and definitely not something upper management would want unless AWS keeps crashing and its fabled SLAs don't hold up. Assurances. Entire supply chains (and everything that goes to make such things happen between nations and international corporations) have substantial inertia built in and will require adjustments. My prognosis is a terminal trajectory ("death blow") unless Russia collapses first, which would then force the hand of China, India, and the rest of fence sitters (which also include Mexico, Brazil, Israel, UAE, KSA, btw.)
      - okamiueru 5y ago
        "unless Russia collapses first". Yes, that is the very likely outcome indeed. You are aware that the GDP of Russia is less than that of several individual European countries? And I mean individual. Germany alone has twice the GDP. You are woefully overestimating the Russian economy in the first place.

okamiueru 5y ago

You're not saying things that make sense to me. The only currency that has depreciated lately is the Ruble and the Lira (4x that of the 3rd place). So to say that USD has suffered a "fatal blow", sounds to me like propaganda, either by being convinced by it, or generating it. It should be easy enough to look at this data for yourself. (Not just my opinion, look it up for yourself)

eternalban 5y ago
When nations are forced to trade around Dollar sanctions for strategic resources that they need, they will use alternative currencies and alternative trade and financial mechanisms. I said nothing about the Ruble, which is a local national currency. We're discussing global reserve currency and mechanisms for global trade. > propaganda, either by being convinced by it, or generating it A rather cheap shot. You prove my final point about even greater pressures coming to bear on free speech and exchange of ideas.
- okamiueru 5y ago
  I mean. By all means, explain further what is meant by "death blow", and how that somehow applies to the currency used by the global market. The rest of the world will be able to trade just fine, as far as currency exchange is concerned. The only issue is for those who have halved their buying power. The the rest of the world clearly disagrees with your assessment, as if they did not, it would be reflected in the evaluation of the USD. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
  - eternalban 5y ago
    What it doesn't mean is a "collapse", which is how you are framing it. It won't be overnight. I assume you are a fellow geek so picture moving a huge infrastructure off of AWS and/or going "multi-cloud". It's not a switch that you flip and definitely not something upper management would want unless AWS keeps crashing and its fabled SLAs don't hold up. Assurances. Entire supply chains (and everything that goes to make such things happen between nations and international corporations) have substantial inertia built in and will require adjustments. My prognosis is a terminal trajectory ("death blow") unless Russia collapses first, which would then force the hand of China, India, and the rest of fence sitters (which also include Mexico, Brazil, Israel, UAE, KSA, btw.)
    - okamiueru 5y ago
      "unless Russia collapses first". Yes, that is the very likely outcome indeed. You are aware that the GDP of Russia is less than that of several individual European countries? And I mean individual. Germany alone has twice the GDP. You are woefully overestimating the Russian economy in the first place.