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> Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined. Right now they don't have to, they just need to replace things at the leve
by dspillett 5y ago
> Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined.
Right now they don't have to, they just need to replace things at the level as Ukraine with just a little help from others. That is much more manageable than “the rest of the world combined”.
> The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.
Which Putin will blame on the rest of the world. While many in Russia are well aware that state run media (and anything else not banned) is often a pile of lies from on high, an awful lot of the general populace are not – disinformation from the top works (and not just in Russia & similar regimes, cf. the cult of Trump) and failing that many people who don't believe the official line will keep quiet about that for reasons of what continued quality of life is possible.
> The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.
The military will do OK for a while at least though. They haven't sent over the majority of their equipment, they'll have plenty in reserve and raw materials for making at least some more. Sales of oil & gas can be funnelled into buying more from outside if needed (massive exchange rate differences don't matter as much if export payments almost immediately go out on import payments, or they can start trading more directly if they have a willing trading partner (China perhaps?)).
- virgilp 5y ago> they haven't sent over the majority of their equipment, Really? I thought they sent in like 75%. Here's their current reinforcements (see the Z letters): https://v.redd.it/qadkws73hwl81/DASH_720.mp4 https://v.redd.it/qadkws73hwl81/DASH_720.mp4
- dspillett 5y agoSome of that is a locality issue. Due to a mix of bad planning and Ukraine resisting rather more effectively than expected, Russian forces don't have enough equipment near the front lines so are falling back on what they can find for now. There is better equipment available elsewhere, but Russia is fairly large and getting that reinforcing equipment from one part to another is not an instantaneous process. I could be wrong of course. This isn't the first time I've heard the figure, but 75% seems rather a lot to have dedicated to this action at the outset. Do you have any reference for that figure?
- virgilp 5y agoCNN good enough? https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-20-22-intl/h_a75912013e1a5572ef733fd4a7167d48 https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news...
- dspillett 5y agoPossibly, depending on who their source “a US official” actually is. If so, I have given Russian military strength far too much credit.
- tpm 5y ago> they'll have plenty in reserve That's the big unknown. What part of their reserves is usable? We've already seen they are sending over 40 years old equipment from the Far East a few days ago.