5 ms·

I don’t understand all the history and nuance of the situation, but I feel incredibly guilty on behalf of the west for courting Ukraine for admission to NATO /

by rlt 5y ago

I don’t understand all the history and nuance of the situation, but I feel incredibly guilty on behalf of the west for courting Ukraine for admission to NATO / EU, but leaving them in a very precarious and vulnerable position in the meantime. It’s just an impossible and sad situation.

alephnan 5y ago
NATO and by that we mean the United States has always been in ambiguous and uncommitted relationships with countries. Their communication is very subtle and succinct. It’s the same with Taiwan. They do not deny China’s claim to Taiwan, but that is logically not equivalent to saying they accept China’s claim to Taiwan. They use language that is convenient for the politicians of those countries to appease their constituents while maintaining the status quo and pushing the can down the road. Biden said he agreed in principle to meet if Putin has not already invaded Ukraine. That’s a weirdly structured sentence if you think about it. In plain English, the sentence seem logically equivalent to “only if”, but if we are focused on pure logic, then Biden can still meet Russia despite Russia having invaded.
- rlt 5y ago
  Is it subtle? Wikipedia says Ukraine was in the “Intensified Dialog” phase which apparently means they are engaged in ‘discussion of a "full range of political, military, financial and security issues relating to possible NATO membership“‘ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Intensified_Dialogue https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Intensif...
  - alephnan 5y ago
    So is it bureaucracy holdup or a matter of negotiations?
    - dgellow 5y ago
      Negotiations, but mostly one sided. Country bordering Russia such as Ukraine have been invaded in the past during USSR time and are in fear of being invaded again (for good reasons as we all know now). They want to be part of an alliance like NATO to protect themselves, thus start the negotiation process. But NATO is aware that would be seen by Russia as a red-line to not cross, Putin has been more than clear on this topic for a while, threatening to use nukes multiple time during the last 15years or so. Because of this NATO communicated quite clearly that Ukraine won’t be able to join any time soon, which means never, but keeps negotiations open.
    - imnotlost 5y ago
      I think economics is a major hurdle for Ukrainian EU membership. Their GDP/capita is less than $4,000. EU average is 8x that. I'm sure there are many other issues as well.
scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago
I highly recommend looking into the history of Ukraine over the last 20-30 years in this case. The West/EU/NATO doesn’t court. And they’re extremely careful about generating the impression or sending a message that they’re actively pulling countries into their “sphere of influence”. For the process of inclusion to work there has to be undeniable proof that it is a democratic process that shows that the people of that country actively want membership. Poland managed to pull this off in the 90’s when Russian influence was weak and memories of Soviet influence were vivid. And even then the process was slow and difficult - the “West” is a demanding club to join.
- kevin_thibedeau 5y ago
  Greece and Turkey demonstrate that the bar needs to be high.
  - oblio 5y ago
    What do you mean?
    - scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago
      I would suspect these two countries and their “low” standard may be the point. My comment emphasized high standards and these two aren’t the best examples.
- pintxo 5y ago
  This is from 2008: > NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. [1] [1] Item 23: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
  - scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago
    This is completely out of context. In 2010 Yanukovych won the vote and flat out declared that he would be halting all efforts to join the EU/NATO etc. This is what eventually triggered the EuroMaidan protests. It's also not so difficult to imagine that this was a response within a larger picture of two-way communication at the time. All the above says is 'welcoming aspirations' - basically 'we're happy that you want to join the club, you will be allowed in in the future if you stay on track'.
dgellow 5y ago
NATO has been quite clear for a decade that Ukraine will not be able to join. The EU also cannot accept Ukraine as a member before a very long time. Neither NATO nor the EU are courting Ukraine, Ukrainians very actively want to be part of both institutions to get some level of protection. So it’s the other way around. Of course that doesn’t make it less sad.
- disambiguation 5y ago
  citation?

by rlt 5y ago

alephnan 5y ago

NATO and by that we mean the United States has always been in ambiguous and uncommitted relationships with countries. Their communication is very subtle and succinct. It’s the same with Taiwan. They do not deny China’s claim to Taiwan, but that is logically not equivalent to saying they accept China’s claim to Taiwan. They use language that is convenient for the politicians of those countries to appease their constituents while maintaining the status quo and pushing the can down the road. Biden said he agreed in principle to meet if Putin has not already invaded Ukraine. That’s a weirdly structured sentence if you think about it. In plain English, the sentence seem logically equivalent to “only if”, but if we are focused on pure logic, then Biden can still meet Russia despite Russia having invaded.

rlt 5y ago
Is it subtle? Wikipedia says Ukraine was in the “Intensified Dialog” phase which apparently means they are engaged in ‘discussion of a "full range of political, military, financial and security issues relating to possible NATO membership“‘ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Intensified_Dialogue https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Intensif...
- alephnan 5y ago
  So is it bureaucracy holdup or a matter of negotiations?
  - dgellow 5y ago
    Negotiations, but mostly one sided. Country bordering Russia such as Ukraine have been invaded in the past during USSR time and are in fear of being invaded again (for good reasons as we all know now). They want to be part of an alliance like NATO to protect themselves, thus start the negotiation process. But NATO is aware that would be seen by Russia as a red-line to not cross, Putin has been more than clear on this topic for a while, threatening to use nukes multiple time during the last 15years or so. Because of this NATO communicated quite clearly that Ukraine won’t be able to join any time soon, which means never, but keeps negotiations open.
  - imnotlost 5y ago
    I think economics is a major hurdle for Ukrainian EU membership. Their GDP/capita is less than $4,000. EU average is 8x that. I'm sure there are many other issues as well.

scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago

I highly recommend looking into the history of Ukraine over the last 20-30 years in this case. The West/EU/NATO doesn’t court. And they’re extremely careful about generating the impression or sending a message that they’re actively pulling countries into their “sphere of influence”. For the process of inclusion to work there has to be undeniable proof that it is a democratic process that shows that the people of that country actively want membership. Poland managed to pull this off in the 90’s when Russian influence was weak and memories of Soviet influence were vivid. And even then the process was slow and difficult - the “West” is a demanding club to join.

kevin_thibedeau 5y ago
Greece and Turkey demonstrate that the bar needs to be high.
- oblio 5y ago
  What do you mean?
  - scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago
    I would suspect these two countries and their “low” standard may be the point. My comment emphasized high standards and these two aren’t the best examples.
pintxo 5y ago
This is from 2008: > NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. [1] [1] Item 23: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
- scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago
  This is completely out of context. In 2010 Yanukovych won the vote and flat out declared that he would be halting all efforts to join the EU/NATO etc. This is what eventually triggered the EuroMaidan protests. It's also not so difficult to imagine that this was a response within a larger picture of two-way communication at the time. All the above says is 'welcoming aspirations' - basically 'we're happy that you want to join the club, you will be allowed in in the future if you stay on track'.

dgellow 5y ago

NATO has been quite clear for a decade that Ukraine will not be able to join. The EU also cannot accept Ukraine as a member before a very long time. Neither NATO nor the EU are courting Ukraine, Ukrainians very actively want to be part of both institutions to get some level of protection. So it’s the other way around. Of course that doesn’t make it less sad.

disambiguation 5y ago
citation?