Dunno if I’d call it a black swan event. Prediction markets like Metaculus were at 50% way before the invasion and 75% days before; Tho most of the pundits didn

Dunno if I’d call it a black swan event. Prediction markets like Metaculus were at 50% way before the invasion and 75% days before; Tho most of the pundits didn’t see it coming: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting?s=r https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting?s=r