5 ms·
I think war is an interesting new phenomenon, similar to a pandemic. It's a black swan event that warrants discussion.
by tediousdemise 5y ago
I think war is an interesting new phenomenon, similar to a pandemic. It's a black swan event that warrants discussion.
- Arnavion 5y agoDiscussion, sure. Discussion here, not necessarily.
- NavinF 5y agoDunno if I’d call it a black swan event. Prediction markets like Metaculus were at 50% way before the invasion and 75% days before; Tho most of the pundits didn’t see it coming: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting?s=r https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting?s=r