4 ms·

Bases are getting much smaller; there are fewer registered D/R vs independents. This makes the “swingable middle” rather large, and they’re not all rubes. Cam

Bases are getting much smaller; there are fewer registered D/R vs independents. This makes the “swingable middle” rather large, and they’re not all rubes. Campaigns seem to be iterating on scalable/personalizable social strategy. Obama figured it out better than Romney, Trump (maybe disturbingly) better than anyone before. Prediction: some future candidate will go “next level” and piss everyone off even more, but it’ll work and they’ll be elected.

chipotle_coyote 5y ago
> Bases are getting much smaller; there are fewer registered D/R vs independents. While this is true, the evidence seems to be that most independents actually have a party preference in their voting patterns -- they're what political scientists sometimes call "leaners", e.g., they register (and identify) as independent, but they have a clear lean toward Democrats or Republicans. From the authors of the 2016 book Independent Politics: How American Disdain for Parties Leads to Political Inaction: "The problem with leaners is that there is almost no difference between people who identify as partisans and people who say they are independent and then say they lean toward a particular party. More often than not, we can count on leaners to vote for that party, support the party’s positions, and sometimes even donate money to the party’s candidates. What’s more, leaners consistently support their party from election to election." https://www.vox.com/2016/1/22/10814522/independents-voters-facts-myths https://www.vox.com/2016/1/22/10814522/independents-voters-f... I think the truly swingable middle -- folks who, for example, voted for Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020 -- is actually a pretty small group. And, it's a small group that's got both disproportionate power at the ballot box and a fairly low engagement with actual political issues. I think I (somewhat reluctantly) agree with your observation about campaigns iterating on social strategy, though, because that tends to be the best way to reach those swing voters: they aren't motivated by ideology or policy preference, but by star power and charisma.
vkou 5y ago
There are fewer registered D/Rs, but there is a massive swell in 'independents' who, without fail, when they show up to vote, vote single-ticket (or close to it) all the way down the ballot. Being a registered party member provides very few advantages, and a lot of disadvantages (mostly in the form of unsolicited correspondence). There's also social caché to be gained in some circles from claiming to be an enlightened independent that has transcended the petty two-party duality, who just happens to consistently vote like a dyed-in-the-wool partisan. My wife is one such person. She has very little respect for the Democratic party, and views most of it as an actively harmful waste of oxygen, but she will be damned if she gives team red a seat. Barring a catastrophic change in party alignment, nobody is going to convince her who to vote for - but they do need to convince her to show up.

chipotle_coyote 5y ago

> Bases are getting much smaller; there are fewer registered D/R vs independents. While this is true, the evidence seems to be that most independents actually have a party preference in their voting patterns -- they're what political scientists sometimes call "leaners", e.g., they register (and identify) as independent, but they have a clear lean toward Democrats or Republicans. From the authors of the 2016 book Independent Politics: How American Disdain for Parties Leads to Political Inaction: "The problem with leaners is that there is almost no difference between people who identify as partisans and people who say they are independent and then say they lean toward a particular party. More often than not, we can count on leaners to vote for that party, support the party’s positions, and sometimes even donate money to the party’s candidates. What’s more, leaners consistently support their party from election to election." https://www.vox.com/2016/1/22/10814522/independents-voters-facts-myths https://www.vox.com/2016/1/22/10814522/independents-voters-f... I think the truly swingable middle -- folks who, for example, voted for Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020 -- is actually a pretty small group. And, it's a small group that's got both disproportionate power at the ballot box and a fairly low engagement with actual political issues. I think I (somewhat reluctantly) agree with your observation about campaigns iterating on social strategy, though, because that tends to be the best way to reach those swing voters: they aren't motivated by ideology or policy preference, but by star power and charisma.

vkou 5y ago

There are fewer registered D/Rs, but there is a massive swell in 'independents' who, without fail, when they show up to vote, vote single-ticket (or close to it) all the way down the ballot. Being a registered party member provides very few advantages, and a lot of disadvantages (mostly in the form of unsolicited correspondence). There's also social caché to be gained in some circles from claiming to be an enlightened independent that has transcended the petty two-party duality, who just happens to consistently vote like a dyed-in-the-wool partisan. My wife is one such person. She has very little respect for the Democratic party, and views most of it as an actively harmful waste of oxygen, but she will be damned if she gives team red a seat. Barring a catastrophic change in party alignment, nobody is going to convince her who to vote for - but they do need to convince her to show up.